Stats, analysis, commrentary.
A few games ago, right after shooting 11-28 from the floor to go with one assist and four turnovers, veteran forward Kyle Kuzma told uttered words to reporters that should worry the Washington Wizards and their fans.
“I had good rhythm today. Just missed a couple layups. Make a couple layups and you’re at 50 percent, then nobody talks about it. It doesn’t really matter, you know?”
The concerning part? “It doesn’t really matter…”
There’s a truth to Kuzma’s words. The franchise strategy is to lose an avalanche of games this season, and they’ve built a roster to do it. More truth: they’ve overbuilt this roster for the purpose of losing. They have more than a few players who shouldn’t be on an NBA roster at all, and likely won’t be after this season.
The problem is that they do have four kids on the roster the front office hopes will be part of a rebuilt team that can compete at the NBA level. Everything matters to them. Everything is a chance to succeed or to learn. And watching Kuzma — who’s supposed to be a veteran leader showing them how to play the “right” way — stumble around and fling up shots and commit turnovers as if they don’t matter is exactly the kind of toxic example the coaches shouldn’t have to overcome.
Kuzma did reduce his field goal attempts the next couple games, which is potentially a good sign. But it’s time to end the make believe with him. His usage rate for the season is over 30%, which would be ridiculous even if his numbers looked more like his career Basketball-Reference page. Dial it back, emphasize team basketball and spread the offensive load. It won’t make the team much (any?) better this season, but it will create a better learning environment for the 19-year-olds (Bub Carrington and Alex Sarr) and 20-year-olds (Bilal Coulibaly and Kyshawn George). For the franchise, nothing else really matters on the court this season.
‘Nuff said.
We last did one of these zoom out check-ups six games into the season. The Wizards lost each of the next seven and have a 2-11 record. The key performance indicators tell the same story as their league-worst record — this is the worst team in the NBA and possibly one of the worst in league history. Six of their losses have been by 20+ points. One was by 19. Only one loss was by single digits, and that was a nine-point defeat to the Sacramento Kings.
Below are big picture KPIs — where they rank now, and where they ranked at our first check-up of the season:
- Strength of schedule adjusted scoring margin: 30th (25th)
- Offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions): 29th (24th)
- Defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 30th (25th)
- Pace (possessions per 48 minutes): 3rd (2nd)
Adjusted for strength of schedule, Washington’s net scoring margin so far this season is -12.4 points per game. That’s the third worst mark in NBA history. Only the 2011-12 Charlotte Hornets (-13.9) and 1992-93 Dallas Mavericks (-14.7) were worse. Those teams went 7-59 (2011-12 was shortened by a labor dispute) and 11-71.
In other words, my preseason forecast that predicted 14 wins for the Wizards this season may have been optimistic. They’ll probably finish better than the 9-73 record by the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers, but it’s not a lock.
Let’s shift now to the Four Factors — the categories that define who wins and loses in basketball. These were codified by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver, who is author of the book “Basketball on Paper” as well as a just-released update (sequel?) “Basketball Beyond Paper.”
The factors apply to both ends of the floor.
Four Factors: Offense
- effective field goal percentage: 26th (25th)
- turnover percentage: 17th (12th)
- offensive rebound percentage: 25th (25th)
- free throws made / field goal attempts: 25th (13th)
Yes, on the offensive end, the Wizards have been below average in all four factors.
Four Factors: Defense
- efg: 27th (23rd)
- tov%: 25th (21st)
- defensive reb%: 29th (28th)
- dftm/dfga: 27th (24th)
As bad as they’ve been on offense, they’ve been worse on defense. They rank 25th or worse in all four of the key defensive factors.
Some help is on the way. Malcolm Brogdon has played poorly in two games since returning from his preseason thumb injury, but he’ll play better. While I criticize how Kuzma plays, it’s probable he’ll perform more like he has previously (around league average) than he has thus far.
The problem with this kind of analysis: Jordan Poole’s production will likely drop. Most of the increase in his PPA score (see below) is hot three-point shooting and producing steals at more than double his career rate. It’s rare for players to suddenly shoot 44.4% from three after shooting 33.6% on more than 2,000 previous career attempts. It’s also rare for players to suddenly produce steals at a rate of 3.0 per 100 team possessions after five seasons at a rate of 1.4.
Player Production Average
Player Production Average (PPA) is an overall production metric I put together. It rewards players for doing things that help a team win like making shots, playmaking, defending, and rebounding, and dings them for things that hurt the cause of winning like missing shots, committing turnovers, defending poorly and fouling.
Each factor is weighted based on regression analysis that determined how each category relates to winning. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.
Wizards scores for the season are below. Here’s a look at top performers so far this season:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, G, Oklahoma City Thunder: 274
- Stephen Curry, G, Golden State Warriors: 273
- Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets: 266
- Kyrie Irving, G, Dallas Mavericks, 237
- Jalen Williams, W, Oklahoma City Thunder: 226
And for the Wizards:
Rotation
- Jordan Poole — 144
- Bilal Coulibaly — 116
- Jonas Valanciunas — 112
- Bub Carrington — 88
- Alex Sarr — 58
- Corey Kispert — 48
- Kyshawn George — 37
- Johnny Davis — 34
- Kyle Kuzma — 28
Non-Rotation
- Jared Butler — 100
- Anthony Gill — 57
- Richaun Holmes — 40
- Marvin Bagley III — 38
- Patrick Baldwin Jr. — 33
- Justin Champagnie — 0
- Malcolm Brogdon — -26
A few observations/thoughts:
- Poole’s been pretty good this season, though I continue to worry (as mentioned above) that it’s mostly small sample shooting and steals. It feels like he’s making better decisions and not trying to show every trick in his bag of moves every time he touches the ball, but…he’s also at a career high in turnovers and fouls.
- Coulibably started the season well, but his usage has nose-dived over the past few games and is down to 16.6%. He’s too talented to languish and defer while others waste possessions.
- Alex Sarr is making plays on defense while still making rookie mistakes, passing reasonably well, and doing okay on the boards when interested. He has to figure out how to make shots in the NBA. That can start with better shot selection, using his length and athleticism instead of fading away or drifting, and ironing out the catapultish launch on his three-point attempts.
- After a shooting slump to open the season, Corey Kispert seems to have gotten his three-point stroke back in working order. Unfortunately, that’s still really his only contribution. As in, he doesn’t defend, rebound, or set up teammates.
- Kyshawn George seems to have talent, and he’s going to need some time to figure out how to apply it in the NBA. Positives so far include passing while avoiding turnovers, contributing on the boards, and at least giving an effort on defense. He’ll need to make shots and reduce the fouling.
Overall, Coulibaly, Sarr, Carrington, and George have been fine for where each is in their development process. The veterans will almost certainly be playing elsewhere later this season or next as the front office remakes the roster with more talented players. Until then, get used to suffering through growing pains — they’re going to be around for a while.