The (almost) halfway check-in
The last time I did one of these “big picture” check-ins, I wrote that the Washington Wizards weren’t bad — they aspired to be bad. In the 16 games since, they’ve played better, though they’re still in the “chasing history” class.
At last check-in, the Wizards had the third worst strength of schedule adjusted scoring margin in NBA history. A month later — with a better-but-still-bad stretch thrown in — the Wizards have the third worst strength of schedule adjusted scoring margin in NBA history.
There’s a bright side. A month ago, that adjusted scoring margin was -13.6. Now, it’s -12.1. In other words, even with the blowout losses, they’ve still edged a little closer to being competitive.
The improvement shows up at both ends of the floor. In the first 22 games, their offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions) was 104.7. Over the last 16: 107.6. Their defensive rating over the same spans: 120.5 and 119.1.
Don’t get too excited — the offensive and defensive ratings over the last 16 games would still rank dead last in both categories. But better is better.
The Check-Up
At the quarter point check-in, the Wizards record was 3-19. They’ve gone 3-13 since to compile a 6-32 record. That puts them on pace to win around 13 games this season. This is right in line with my preseason forecast, which predicted 14 wins.
Here’s where they currently stand in key measures of team strength (and in parentheses, where they stood 22 games into year):
- Strength of schedule adjusted scoring margin: 30th (30th)
- Offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions): 30th (30th)
- Defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 30th (30th)
- Pace (possessions per 48 minutes): 4th (4th)
Yes, it is kinda disconcerting to see the team legitimately play better and still rank at the bottom across the board. It’s a reminder of how far behind they were (and still are, even with the improvements).
Let’s shift now to the Four Factors — the categories that define who wins and loses in basketball. These were codified by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver, who is author of the book “Basketball on Paper” as well as a just-released update (sequel?) “Basketball Beyond Paper.”
The factors apply to both ends of the floor.
Four Factors: Offense
- effective field goal percentage: 27th (28th)
- turnover percentage: 25th (22nd)
- offensive rebound percentage: 20th (23rd)
- free throws made / field goal attempts: 26th (22nd)
Four Factors: Defense
- eFG%: 23rd (28th)
- tov%: 28th (26th)
- defensive reb%: 28th (27th)
- dftm/dfga: 26th (28th)
While this article may feel negative to some, it’s really not. It bears repeating: the franchise’s executive leadership — Ted Leonsis, Michael Winger, Will Dawkins, and Travis Schlenck — decided to detonate the team as previously constructed and become terrible for a few seasons while they acquired draft assets. The goal was to use the terrible period to bring in young players, help those young players improve, and become good at some point in the future.
A season like 2024-25 (and probably a similar one in 2025-26) is part of the plan. It’s brutal to watch at times, but it’s part of the front office’s strategy to build a future winner. Whether it was the best strategy or not is academic at this point. It’s the one they chose, and now we watch and wait to see if they can make the series of assessments and decisions they’ll need to get right for the team to eventually win.
And, it’s worth keeping in mind that the is heavily reliant on very young players, a few of whom they hope will be key parts of the turnaround. Here are the team leaders in minutes played this season:
- Bub Carrington, age 19
- Bilal Coulibaly, 20
- Jordan Poole, 25
- Alex Sarr, 19
- Corey Kispert, 25
- Kyshawn George, 21
Some of the decision to give heavy minutes to the youngsters is related to injuries. Kyle Kuzma missed 15 games. Malcolm Brogdon has been out 20 games (and counting). Even Jordan Poole, a tough gamer who rarely misses games, has missed seven games.
Still, by necessity or design, the 21-and-under kids are getting loads of minutes and learning opportunities. And, the team might have found a couple potential rotation players in two-way players Justin Champagnie and Jared Butler…if they’d take the hint and give them steady minutes to find out one way or the other.
That last aside is about all I have for criticism of the coaching staff, by the way. Head coach Brian Keefe and his assistants have largely maintained a tight rotation that emphasizes major roles for the four key youngsters. They’ve implemented an offensive system that empowers everyone on the floor to make plays, and they’ve put in place a solid defensive scheme that should form the foundation for solid defensive squad in the future.
What’s ahead? For this season, probably another 36 losses and then the draft lottery to see if they get the top pick in the draft as a reward for being historically bad.
Player Production Average
Player Production Average (PPA) is an overall production metric that rewards players for doing things that help a team win like making shots, playmaking, defending, and rebounding, and dings them for things that hurt the cause of winning like missing shots, committing turnovers, defending poorly and fouling.
Each factor is weighted based on regression analysis that determined how each category relates to winning. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.
Below are the team’s PPA scores through 38 games followed by their PPA score in the last update.
Rotation
- Malcolm Brogdon — 115 (119)
- Jordan Poole — 115 (108)
- Justin Champagnie — 114 (108)
- Jonas Valanciunas — 100 (112)
- Bilal Coulibaly — 79 (80)
- Alex Sarr — 79 (67)
- Corey Kispert — 54 (41)
- Bub Carrington — 54 (43)
- Kyle Kuzma — 38 (32)
- Kyshawn George — 28 (29)
Non-Rotation
- Jared Butler — 76 (53)
- Marvin Bagley III — 76 (74)
- Patrick Baldwin Jr. — 65 (53)
- Johnny Davis — 46 (54)
- Richaun Holmes — 34 (39)
- Anthony Gill — 29 (37)
- Tristan Vukcevic — -18
I’m receptive to the argument that Jared Butler could reasonably be considered a rotation player at this point. He’s appeared in 29 games so far this season. I have him on the non-rotation list because I’ve seen how his minutes were gutted the past few games despite a series of excellent performances. If I put him on the rotation portion of the list, he’d rank seventh — slotted after Sarr and before Kispert.