Washington had a combined 33 wins in the 2023 and 2024 seasons, more than the other three teams that didn’t make the playoffs.
The Washington Mystics won last night against the Indiana Fever, but it wasn’t enough for them to make the 2024 WNBA Playoffs. Therefore, it’s not an ideal situation for the Mystics’ immediate term future. While the late season playoff push was commendable, it was ultimately done with little to show for it. Here’s why.
Washington did secure one draft lottery pick last week, but it was their own, and they willingly hurt their lottery position by going on this playoff push. I get why, but just saying. And the loss to the Atlanta Dream last Sunday, effectively gave them a playoff spot and made them lose their chance of getting a second lottery spot — or at least the Mystics could have made the playoffs and go into the draft lottery with house money, meaning the Dream’s pick. The Mystics acquired that first round pick in a trade.
Anyway, what odds will the Mystics have in the Draft Lottery later this fall? There is no date set yet for it.
WNBA Draft Lotteries work differently than NBA Draft Lotteries. The odds are determined based on a non-playoff team’s cumulative record over the last TWO seasons, instead of ONE like the NBA. This system has been in place since 2015 in an effort to disincentivize tanking for top draft picks.
If two teams have an identical two year cumulative record, then the team with the worse record in the most recent season wins the tiebreaker. The Dallas Wings and Chicago Sky have both won a combined 31 games the last two seasons. But the Wings were worse this season, so they get higher draft odds than the Sky.
In short, the Los Angeles Sparks will have the highest odds of getting the No. 1 pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft, followed by the Wings, Sky and the Mystics. So the Mystics have the fourth best odds of getting the No. 1 pick.
Here are the detailed odds for each team, with the assumption that the Golden State Valkyries expansion team will not get a lottery draft spot:
- Sparks (44.2 percent)
- Wings (22.8 percent)
- Sky (22.6 percent)
- Mystics (10.4 percent)
The Wings also have a draft pick swap option from the Sky because of a July trade involving Marina Mabrey. Should the Sky get the top pick in the draft, the Wings will almost definitely swap with Chicago. Therefore, the Wings have a 45.4 percent chance of having the No. 1 pick.
In addition, the Sparks, who have the best chance of getting the No. 1 pick cannot fall worse than No. 3 in the Draft. That is because the lottery determines the No. 1 and No. 2 picks.
What made the WNBA use a two year record for draft lottery odds?
It was done to minimize teams tanking for top draft picks. The Mercury were accused of tanking their 2012 season because of questionable player injuries in an Olympic season. Either way, they played chess and won the top pick in the draft where they were able to select Baylor center Brittney Griner No. 1 in the 2013 Draft.
The Mystics (I know I’m writing an old sob story but this is a fact) had the worst record in the 2012 season but fell to No. 4 in the 2013 Draft. They couldn’t select Griner, Delaware forward Elena Delle Donne or Notre Dame guard Skylar Diggins (now Diggins-Smith), who were and still are regarded as the top three players in that class. Washington selected Tayler Hill No. 4 overall, where she had an inconsistent professional career and didn’t play after the 2019 season.
So in short, though the WNBA wasn’t saying it out loud, they wanted to prevent a 2012-13 Mercury situation where teams could selectively tank to “steal” a top draft pick by determining standings based on the last two seasons. And they wanted to prevent a 2012-13 Mystics situation where the worst team could fall too far in a draft by ensuring that such a team couldn’t pick worse than No. 3.
Where will the Mystics likely pick in 2025?
Again, we are assuming the Golden State will not get a lottery pick given past WNBA expansion teams’ situations. So with that in mind, the Mystics are probably getting the No. 4 pick in the draft. Anything better than that would be a bonus.
The Dream were the No. 8 seed in the 2024 regular season, so the Mystics will likely have the No. 6 pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft assuming the Valkyries are given the No. 5 pick after the lottery teams.
So if I’m a betting man, the Mystics will have the No. 4 and No. 6 picks in the 2025 WNBA Draft based on the odds. But I’m hoping that Washington somehow moves up to No. 1. It is a lottery after all.