The Washington Capitals weren’t lucky enough to win the draft lottery this year. They will still have a shot at a very good player with the eighth-overall pick, and based on General Manager Brian MacLellan’s comments after the draft lottery, the team is more than likely keeping the pick. A wise choice, indeed.
Now, should the right player comes along who can is available in exchange for that pick, and that player can make a difference now, it might be understandable to make that trade – but if the summer retool is done correctly, the Caps won’t have this high of a pick for years and even if they do, there’s no guarantee the draft will be as strong as it will be this summer.
They’re better off holding pat, keeping the pick and finding other ways to improve the team now. That can put them in the best position to not only be good for the remaining Alex Ovechkin years but also draft a high-end young talent who can head up the next generation of Capitals.
So let’s take a look at some of their options, ranked in order from least likely to be available to most:
The “No Way” Tier
Connor Bedard, C, 5’10” 185lbs – Bedard is a generational talent who is putting up better numbers than Connor McDavid at his age. Granted, Chicago absolutely does not deserve Bedard after covering up sexual assault for over a decade…but they won the lottery, and there is no question that they are drafting him.
Adam Fantilli, C, 6’2” 187lbs – If Bedard wasn’t born when he was, Fantilli would be the number one pick this draft (though a certain Russian also makes a case). He’s a high-flying center with elite puck skills, putting up numbers in college as a freshman that very few do. He’s getting comparisons to Nathan MacKinnon or Jack Eichel, and there’s next to no chance he’s available anywhere near where the Caps pick.
The “Highly Unlikely” Tier
Leo Carlsson, C/W, 6’3” 194lbs – It’s not often big centers like Carlsson come along. He is drawing comparisons to Mikko Rantanen, or even Evgeni Malkin or Nicklas Backstrom. Those would be some tough shoes to fill, but he’s on the right track, putting up huge numbers as an 18-year-old in the SHL, one of the top men’s leagues in the world. Hard to see him being picked outside the top four.
William Smith, C, 6’0” 172lbs – Outside of Bedard, Smith might be the best pure playmaker in the draft. It’s otherworldly sometimes how he sees people and gets the puck to them. His shot is also above average – perhaps not high end, but since he can sell a pass so well he gets a lot of great looks near the net where he can bury it. He reminds me a lot of our very own Evgeny Kuznetsov, though Kuznetsov is a much better skater. If Smith wants to hit that next level he needs to add more speed to his game. Trevor Zegras is another great comparable.
If Caps can add him he’d make a great partner to a sniper like Ivan Miroshnichenko. That’d make a deadly pair on the top line in the future. Unfortunately, while he may have been within reach earlier this year, he put on a clinic at the recent U18 tournament and now, like Carlsson, it’s hard to see him going outside the top four or five picks.
The “Absolute Dream” Tier
Matvei Michkov, RW, 5’10” 148lbs – Michkov is arguably the second-best player in this draft and he could still go there with his elite shot and playmaking ability – but there’s a complication that could drop him down a bit. Michkov is currently signed to a KHL deal through the 2025-26 season, and some of the teams ahead of the Caps could be nervous about waiting for him for the next three years or so (or even longer, should he decide to stay in Russia beyond that). Now, all six non-Blackhawks teams having that attitude, given the caliber of player in question, seems unlikely. But he may drop enough that the Caps could take a shot at trading up and grabbing him – and if they can, they absolutely should. Michkov is the next elite Russian player, the next Nikita Kucherov. Sure, he won’t help the Caps for years, probably not until after Ovechkin retires, but it’s worth it for a superstar player that could be the face of the franchise for the next decade or two.
The “Likely” Tier
Dalibor Dvorsky, C, 6’1” 201lbs – Everyone knew about Dvorsky’s defensive, mature game, but apparently he wanted to make sure people knew his offensive tools, as well – so he went out and put the entire Slovakian team on his shoulders at the U18s and just dominated, putting up 13 points in seven games, good for sixth in the tournament. That’s particularly impressive given the caliber of team he was working with.
He already possesses great size and defensive reliability, making him one of the few players in this draft who could quickly jump to the NHL over the next year or two. He’s got some similarities to someone like Joel Eriksson-Ek, who just had a career year with 61 points in 78 games while also being very strong defensively, or even Anze Kopitar, a future hall-of-famer. Dvorsky might not be a point-per-game center in the NHL (neither are Kopitar or Eriksson-Ek) but his mature game mixed with good offensive tools can turn him into a reliable 1C that helps drive play. That would be a great grab at number eight.
Zach Benson, C/W, 5’10” 159lbs – If Benson were three inches taller and 20 pounds heavier he’d probably be a slam dunk for the #3 or #4 pick, but alas he’s a small boi. He’s a hard working two-way forward with high-end IQ and vision, and he’s one of the better playmakers in the draft as well. His shot isn’t elite but due to him being so smart and getting to the right areas, he doesn’t need a hard shot because his accuracy does all the work. He plays wing, mostly, but a team should really focus him as a center because he has the work ethic, two-way ability, and skill to be a full time top-line center. He’s reminiscent of Brayden Point (without the skating ability) or Brad Marchand (without the assholery) – both top-line, two-way players.
David Reinbacher, RHD, 6’2” 187lbs – His name has been shooting up the rankings of late, so it wouldn’t be surprising if a team in front of the Caps snags him, but it’s still somewhat surprising that Renbacher isn’t getting more interest from rankings. He’s often being listed behind other defensemen like Axel Sandin Pellikka, Mikhail Gulyayev, and even Dmitri Simashev. All of those players are good in their own right, but Reinbacher might be the best defensemen. He’s a big kid who looks like he’s pro-ready already. He plays in the National League in Switzerland and doesn’t look at all out of place as an 18-year-old playing against men. He probably won’t be a pure offensive defensemen but he has put up the second-most points by a U19 defensemen in that league ever, only behind the great Roman Josi. He’s big, quick, plays physical and can put up points. He has all the makings to be a strong top pairing two-way defensemen like a Colton Parayko or Brett Pesce – or even the next Moritz Seider.
Ryan Leonard, C/W, 5’11” 181lbs – Leonard was part of the dynamite trio for the US development team along with Smith and Gabe Perreault. Though he’s not the biggest, Leonard is a power forward through and through. He’s tough as nails, grinds along the boards with anyone, and fights to the front of the net. He brings those aspects at both ends of the ice, becoming one of the more reliable forwards in the draft, and is similar to Brendan Gallagher or young standout Matt Boldy – players who are maybe lacking in high-end offensive tools, but their hard work, skating, and reliability can turn them into puck possession hogs and great complementary top-six players. Leonard has that skillset, and it’s a bonus that he literally plays all three forward positions, making him versatile, as well.
Gabe Perreault, RW, 5’11” 165lbs – Going from one USDP player to another, Perrault scored the most points this season on the US National U18 Team. Historically, he has put up more point totals and points per game than players like Patrick Kane, Cole Caufield, Trevor Zegras, Matt Boldy, Jack Eichel, Logan Cooley, Zach Parise, and more. So why isn’t this kid a lock in the top five, even top three? Well, he has little to no speed. His IQ is elite, his passing is top tier, and his shot is above average, but his skating has real potential to hold him back in the NHL. He’s a gamble to take, so it makes sense why teams in the top 10 may not want to take a chance – and the Caps are probably one of those teams, not wanting to take a gamble with such a high pick. If they do, though, and they can just improve Perreault’s skating (even just to get him to average speed), they’ll get an absolute gem. This kid has all the potential to be a point-per-game player in the NHL. Comparables are hard in general but in this case, because of his lack of skating ability, it’s almost impossible. There just aren’t many, if any, NHL-caliber top-six wingers who can barely skate. Justin Williams did make a great career despite his lack of speed because of his elite IQ, and Mark Stone has, as well – so maybe he can follow in their footsteps.
Oliver Moore, C, 5’11” 176lbs – We did two USPD players, so why not make it three in row? Moore isn’t getting as much attention as the three big USPD players (Smith, Leonard, Perreault) but many feel it’s because he wasn’t playing with as talented teammates as those three and he could have really broken out if at least one of those players was on his wing. There’s a case that Moore could be the best skater in the 2023 NHL draft. He skates and accelerates quickly, and can turn on a dime. Mix that with his work ethic and he becomes a great impact player at both ends of the ice. Because of his speed he opens up a lot of lanes where he can dish it with some of the best of them.
He’s not an elite playmaker but his play style makes it so that his above-average passing game is very effective. The same goes with his shot; it’s not that it’s top tier, but his speed can throw goalie and defenses off, much like Jakub Vrana can do. He’s getting compared to Dylan Larkin, which would be a great addition for the Caps down the road. Another potential comparable is Roope Hintz, who had himself a ridiculous playoffs. A young, potential, speedy center with top-line ability? Yes please!
Andrew Cristall, LW, 5’10 165lbs – Cristall, like Benson, would be a guaranteed top-five pick if he weren’t a more diminutive player. He put up the most points per game in the WHL outside of Bedard and the very talented Logan Stankoven. Actually Benson is a pretty good comparable, though Benson has a better defensive game and is a better skater. Where Cristall is better than Benson, and this is hard to believe, is overall offensive skill – not by much, but it’s there. He’s an elite playmaker and his shot is quick and deadly. He has all the makings to be an offensive dynamo winger in the NHL if he improves his skating. He’s got a little Johnny Gaudreau-ness about him, although Gaudreau can skate like the wind. If everything breaks right, Cristall might be able to follow in Johnny Hockey’s footsteps and become a legit top-line winger who can get you 50+ assists and 30+ goals. He will need lots of time to develop, get stronger, and vastly improve his skating, and like Perreault, it would be a big gamble at #8 – but could also pay off huge if he hits his ceiling.
There are some other intriguing players after this group like Brayden Yager, who before the season was looked at a potential top five pick, but had a slow season; or Eduard Sale, the dual threat forward but lacks pace; or Nate Dainelson, the unsexy center but has elite defensive ability with offensive potential; or hard-working, 30+ goal potential winger Colby Barlow; or potential Tage Thompson clone in Matthew Wood; etc.
If the Caps are set on someone like those players, though, they should probably look to trade back…and if the plan is to trade back, they might as well trade that pick altogether now for help in the present.
But the Capitals should have a very good prospect to pick at the #8 spot, one who has the ability to be a top-line or top-pair player. It’s a high pick in a deep draft, a chance that doesn’t come around very often. They should take advantage of it.