BIG EXPECTATIONS: How Georgetown Wins 10 Conference Games

Hoyas need to take care of business to stay in the top four

Your Georgetown Hoyas (11-2, 2-0) can win 8 more home games, going 10-10 in the BIG EAST, by sweeping DePaul, Seton Hall, and Providence and splitting with Xavier, Villanova, Butler, and Creighton. If Georgetown goes that route to become a 10-win team that could be considered a season of huge growth and success for the Hoyas. But without beating Marquette, UConn, or St. John’s, the question is then whether a .500 team in the BIG EAST (e.g., 19-12) makes the NCAA tournament this year. Well, let’s get them to 10 wins first.

Seriously, if someone promised last year that Georgetown had a legitimate shot at getting 10 conference wins this season, many college basketball fans would be in utter disbelief. Now, KenPom has the Hoyas projecting to 10-10 and tied for sixth with Xavier.

Most years, double-digit wins in the BIG EAST is a recipe for an at-large berth. This year, the conference is still unsettled with teams like Providence, Creighton, Villanova, and Seton Hall underperforming, while Butler and DePaul are looking a bit better than their original rankings. Of course there’s also a special week in Manhattan in March that can change a season’s fate, but 18 arguably winnable games are in front of the Hoyas as we speak.

Going 2-0 so far is a promising indication that GU might be able to take care of business at home and hold off weaker opponents on the road. Ed Cooley and his team have to take advantage of their current position (fourth) with solid momentum.

It’s premature to talk about a bubble at this point, but with Micah Peavy exhausting eligibility and NBA scouts salivating over Thomas Sorber, showing significant progress with this squad is vital to the future recruiting and NIL efforts. Like it or not, there is a measuring stick out there that people are paying attention to. Get to 10 wins. No pressure.

Here are the current KenPom rankings for the conference:

• Marquette (3-0) 8
• UConn (3-0) 14
• St. John’s (2-1) 19
• Creighton (2-1) 53
• Xavier (1-2) 53
• Villanova (2-1) 52
• Georgetown (2-0) 66
• Butler (0-3) 78
• Providence (1-2) 89
• DePaul (0-3) 105
• Seton Hall (0-3) 143

The goal/expectation here is to get to 10-10 by collecting victories in games that Georgetown “should” be winning. The Hoyas could sweep DePaul, Seton Hall, and Providence and split the games against Xavier, Villanova, Butler, and Creighton. That’s .500 basketball.

You can swap one of the three sweep teams with one of the four split teams (e.g., lose to PC but sweep CU). You can sweep four teams and split with three, too, while still losing six games to Marquette, St. John’s, and UConn. Again, each game is a crap shoot, but it just makes sense to go by the current public metrics and hoping for some home cooking.

There’s plenty of time to look deeply at the next game against a hungry 1-2 Xavier team—and this humble blog contributor will certainly look at each game individually—but for this post, fans should consider the next 18 Georgetown games in blocks of six.

Each block has three home games and three away games. The second block (section “B”) has the highest KenPom average score and only two weekday games (counting a home Friday night game to be a hopeful weekend win).

This first group of six games (section “A”) certainly is a gauntlet. With Top-25-ranked Marquette (Away), UConn (Home), and St. John’s (Away), there are three (statistically) probable losses in a row. GU will put up a fight, but “on paper,” it very likely could kill some momentum for the Hoyas.

But all hope is not lost even with a three-game skid there. Beating DePaul and Xavier (or Villanova) would stay on pace. For instance, if the Hoyas go 2-4 over section A, then they will be 4-4 overall. Then Georgetown must go 3-3 in section B and 3-3 in section C to finish with 10 conference wins. Again, solid .500 conference basketball, if that’s the expectation.

That said, if the Hoyas can win 4 of the next 6 games (necessarily beating at least one of Marquette, UConn, St. John’s) … perhaps the “bubble” conversation starts for the Hoyas, but let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves here. Winning three of the six would give GU a cushion for 10-10, but may up the expectations.

Going .500 in section B is very feasible, but never easy. Georgetown would probably have to win home games against Butler and Seton Hall, while taking a Saturday road win from Providence. They could also grab a road win at Xavier on a Tuesday night or Butler on a Saturday afternoon, but Providence has the worse metrics right now. Going 4-2 in section B would be nice, but potential bubble discussions might require one of those wins to be against St. John’s—a top-20 team who just dropped a low-scoring affair in Omaha, 57-56.

Staying on pace in section C would only require home wins over Providence and Villanova, with a road win on the final Saturday at DePaul. Not great to have UConn and Marquette in the same week twice, but luckily the latter game of each duo is at home. Providence and Villanova could be fighting Georgetown for fourth place, so those two late-season home games are likely must-wins.

It’s all that simple to get to 10-10, but of course it won’t work out like that. Perhaps the Hoyas drop the home game at Providence but win at Creighton. Or maybe the Hoyas steal a game at Xavier but lose to the Musketeers at home. If they get swept by Butler, GU needs to sweep Villanova, or vice versa. The math says it’s pretty attainable for the Hoyas.

The fun of the season is to watch each matchup and believe that Georgetown has a chance at any time. They absolutely do. With a consistent defense, the Blue & Gray can win any game left on the schedule. The Hoyas could definitely bring down one of the top three conference foes, but plucking the low hanging fruit is much needed for this program to get back on track. Earning 10 BIG EAST wins is the first goal here.

Getting a couple games above .500 would undoubtedly be awesome. It’s been too long for Hoya fans (2015). Going for more than 10 wins will require staying ahead of the likes of Creighton, Villanova, and Xavier. The plan is to build confidence and steal wins until the statistics start looking at Georgetown as the favorite.

For instance, maybe there’s a small miracle at Madison Square Garden in a few weeks. Likewise, it would be nice—but typically tough—to beat Creighton at Omaha at 4pm on a Sunday. It would be incredible to win at the XL Center on a Wednesday night, let alone bring down the two-time champs at home in two short weeks. A home Marquette seems almost invincible right now, but perhaps there’s some magic or the Hoyas take down a top-10 Golden Eagles team at Capital One Arena on a Saturday night to kick off the madness of March. All that would be great, but it’s unexpected for now.

Many fans, including this one, are reluctant to get their hopes up. Burned too often and too recently. But 10 wins honestly doesn’t feel like a stretch for this group. Perhaps we revisit this path in 6 games with even higher expectations. Despite an abysmal prior season, this team has come so far in so little time. It’s hard to ask them for more, but they need to take care of business with equal and lesser teams, leaning on their defense.

Or maybe each game comes down to a phantom foul, a missed whistle, or a banked three-point shot. Fans are going to live and die with each Georgetown game, and huge fluctuations between depressingly low expectations and extremely high hopes for each GU possession is really the only real way to be Hoyas fan.