Trump’s agenda resonates as Democrats face coalition challenges post-election

Republicans have gained an advantage with voters on which party represents them best for the first time since President-elect Donald Trump became the GOP’s leader in 2016, as they prepare to take over full control of the government in Washington.

It is a notable shift as the major political parties analyze the lessons offered by the results of Nov. 5 and how to build longstanding majorities to move the country forward in their visions.

Pew Research Center polling found 50% of Americans said the Republican Party represents the interests of people like them at least “somewhat well,” the highest it has ever been since Trump became its standard-bearer in 2016. Only 43% of people said that about Democrats, marking the first time in eight years that the party has trailed on the question.

The 43% mark is the lowest point for Democrats since July 2023, when President Joe Biden’s political issues snowballed into an intense pressure campaign after his debate against Trump and ultimately forced him to drop out of the race. Enthusiasm among Democrats had plummeted after the debate exacerbated concerns about his age and sent more independents into Trump’s camp, an issue the party is still grappling with as it dissects the results of Nov. 5.

“The most effective thing Donald Trump has done to convince Americans that he and his party are more in line with their interests is to not be Joe Biden. In many ways, people are reacting to the contrast right now that they were already feeling negative about the economy and about the Biden administration,” said Chris Devine, an associate professor of political science at the University of Dayton. “Seeing his heir apparent lose decisively, it’s given Americans this sense that they’re going to start over now and that’s a new chapter.”

Throughout his campaign, Trump repeatedly vowed to cut taxes, boost the economy, crack down on illegal immigration, and secure the U.S.-Mexico border. Polling has found that Republicans overwhelmingly back Trump’s legislative and executive priorities as he prepares to take office in January, but that support is more diluted among the complete electorate.

But Trump has also made putting “America first” and taking on governmental and political establishments a centerpiece of his movement to position himself as a “change” candidate, despite being the Republican Party’s standard-bearer for the last eight years.

The change in dynamic comes as Democrats are trying to plot their path forward after losing the White House, Senate, and failing to flip the House in the 2024 election. Trump narrowly won each of the seven battleground states and saw his margin of defeat shrink in several heavily Democratic-leaning states, raising questions for Democrats about what the party needs to do differently to build a winning coalition.

There is debate in Democratic circles about what needs to change in the future and what has gone wrong this year. Biden has shouldered some of the blame for waiting so long to drop out of the race, while other figures have blamed the party’s stances on cultural issues, and some have criticized the party for abandoning working-class voters who have shifted to Trump, while wealthier, college-educated Americans vote Democratic.

Republicans have claimed their Election Day victories amount to a mandate to carry out Trump’s agenda, though slim majorities and a shrinking advantage in the popular vote for the president-elect have prompted scrutiny about how forceful the electorate’s directive is.

“President Trump will take office in January with an unprecedented mandate after his resounding Electoral College and popular vote wins — aided by massive swings among virtually all demographics,” Trump’s transition team said in an email on Monday.

While the mandate is up for debate, Trump has made significant inroads among traditional Democratic voters from his first election in 2016 to 2024, receiving record levels of support from Latino, Asian American, and young voters for a Republican candidate in decades. Even among groups that Harris won comfortably, she still underperformed Biden in 2020 and, in some cases, Hillary Clinton in 2016, highlighting longstanding issues Democrats have had keeping their coalition together.

But political support is a highly volatile factor that can swiftly change. Midterm elections always present a challenge to the party in power, and voters have not yet had to reckon with the consequences of the decisions of the incoming Trump administration and GOP majorities in Congress.

“There are real coalitional problems that Democrats have that they should be concerned about. But the test is going to be not where Americans were on Nov. 5 or even where they are on Dec. 5, but let’s see where they are when there’s a new Trump administration,” Devine said. “Are they happy with the results that they get? Or, given how fickle Americans have been over recent elections — switching from one party to the other, basically against the incumbent party in most cases — are they going to stick with it, with Donald Trump and the Republican Party, or sour on them as well?”