Immigration is one of the most divisive issues this election, even though a majority of Americans on both sides of the political aisle want to improve border security.
The Pew Research Center found that 96% of Donald Trump supporters and 80% of Kamala Harris supporters favor improving border security. And majorities on both sides favor admitting more high-skilled immigrants, a view shared by 71% of Trump supporters and 87% of Harris supporters.
That’s about where the consensus ends.
Immigration is a far more important issue among Republican voters than among Democratic voters.
A Pew Research Center survey conducted in late August and early September found that 82% of Trump’s supporters view immigration as a top issue this election, trailing only the economy.
“This is the issue that riles up Trump supporters more than anything else,” Oklahoma State University politics professor Seth McKee said.
Just 39% of Harris’ supporters in the Pew Research Center survey said immigration was a top issue for them. For Harris supporters, immigration trailed other issues, including health care, Supreme Court appointments, the economy, abortion, gun policy and climate change.
Overall, 61% of Americans said immigration will be an important issue influencing their vote this election.
A large majority of Trump supporters, 88%, favor mass deportations, according to the Pew Research Center. Just 27% of Harris supporters favor mass deportations.
Eighty percent of Harris supporters favor allowing undocumented immigrants to live and work in the U.S. if they are married to an American citizen. Just 37% of Trump supporters feel the same.
Most Trump supporters, 59%, said the increasing number of immigrants will make things worse for people like them. Just 11% of Harris voters said the same.
Almost all Trump supporters, 92%, said undocumented immigrants make crime worse. Just 37% of Harris supporters said the same.
Eighty-five percent of Trump supporters said undocumented immigrants make the economy worse. Just 28% of Harris supporters also think immigrants make the economy worse.
The American Sheriff Alliance recently called on Washington to find bipartisan solutions to the immigration and border security issues, which the group said were unsustainable and a danger to Americans.
Illegal border crossings are down from record-breaking levels but remain exceedingly high and a threat to public safety, the American Sheriff Alliance said.
There have been more than 10 million illegal entry encounters nationwide since the beginning of fiscal 2021, up from about 3 million between fiscal 2017 and 2020.
There are an estimated 2 million “got-aways” who have evaded Customs and Border Protection and are now somewhere in the U.S., the American Sheriff Alliance said.
A new Pew Research Center report showed the U.S. immigrant population in 2023 saw its largest increase in more than 20 years.
The immigrant population increased last year by about 1.6 million to reach a record 47.8 million immigrants living in the U.S.
McKee said immigration is a real issue that is vulnerable to “massive polarization” because of how the parties perceive and talk about the topic.
“The way it’s cast, and the way Republicans and Trump supporters respond, is very much racialized,” McKee said.
Economic fears also play into the immigration issue, McKee said.
“It packs a powerful punch, because it covers multiple prejudices at once,” he said.
Peter Loge, the director of the School of Media and Public Affairs at the George Washington University, said there’s research that also shows that attitudes towards immigration are tied to trust in government.
“The more you trust the government to do the right thing, the more likely you are to support immigration and immigration reform and immigration policies,” Loge said.
Immigration becomes a symbolic issue for folks who feel like things are going badly and aren’t always sure why, Loge said.
The real issues created by an influx of migrants, such as strains on local housing or infrastructure, are mixed in with other concerns, Loge said.
“Yes, we have to handle what’s going on at the southern border. I think everybody agrees on that. That’s an important debate. But immigration is actually probably about a lot of other things, as well,” Loge said. “Who we are as Americans. Do we trust our government? How do we feel about our current situation? How do we feel about our future?”
The demographics of America are changing.
Immigrants accounted for 14.3% of the U.S. population in 2023, up from 4.7% in 1970, but still below the record share of 14.8% in 1890.
Still, the immigrant share of the population is now the highest since 1910, according to the Pew Research Center.
The most common countries of origin as of last year were Mexico (10.9 million people, or 23% of the total), India (2.9 million, or 6%), China (2.4 million, or 5%) and the Philippines (2.1 million, or 4%).
Around a quarter of the immigrants are in the country illegally. The other three-quarters are naturalized U.S. citizens, lawful permanent residents or lawful temporary residents, according to the Pew Research Center.
Immigration is an issue that plays in Trump’s favor.
A poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found 46% of Americans trust Trump’s handling of immigration, compared with 36% who said they trust Harris more on that key issue.
Immigration is likely to impact the election more as an issue that Republicans can leverage to mobilize their base rather than sway undecided voters, McKee said.
“I think for that small group that is persuadable, I don’t think the issue is nearly as important to them,” he said. “Because they don’t respond like partisans.”
Abortion is a similar issue to immigration that could help Democrats generate turnout on their side.
The Pew Research Center found 67% of Harris supporters view abortion as a top issue this election, compared with just 35% of Trump supporters.
And the AP-NORC poll found Harris is more trusted to handle the abortion issue, 51% to 27% for Trump.
As for immigration, Loge said Harris needs to strongly state her support for border security and to argue that Republicans are playing politics with immigration. A bipartisan Senate immigration bill failed earlier this year, reportedly after Trump pushed GOP lawmakers to kill the legislation.
Trump, meanwhile, should keep banging the drum on immigration, Loge said. It’s an issue that plays perfectly into Trump’s argument that everything is broken and he’s the man to fix it, Loge said.
“The most successful Republican talking points this cycle, I think, remain immigration, inflation, and chaos,” Loge said.
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