Ravens vs. Commanders: 5 keys to victory

Mapping a out a blueprint to success in this interconference showdown.

The Baltimore Ravens will be back at home in Week 6, hosting the Washington Commanders on Sunday in the ‘Battle of the Beltway.’ After a thrilling overtime victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 5, the Ravens will be looking to extend their winning streak against their regional rivals led by Offensive Rookie of the Year leading candidate, quarterback Jayden Daniels. Not only would a win put their record two games over .500 for the first time this season, it may keep them in first place in the division — even if the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Las Vegas Raiders later that evening.

Here are five keys integral to the Ravens’ coming out on top in Week 6.

---

Continue to live in heavy personnel on offense and pound the rock

The best offensive approach for the Ravens this year by far and away has been the regular deployment of their bigger packages that include two or more tight ends and four-time Pro Bowl fullback Patrick Ricard. They already boast the league’s best rushing attack by a wide margin with leading marks in total yards (1,056), yards per game (211.2) and yards per carry (6.1). However, they’ve been especially potent when they trot out multiple tight ends and running backs/fullbacks with an NFL-best six yards per play and EPA (expected points added) of .24.

While Baltimore has been unpredictable and balanced from a run-to-pass ratio standpoint out of those packages dating back to last year, going up against a Washington defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in rush defense and is giving up 5.1 yards per attempt—tied for second-most—unleashing Derrick Henry behind bigger sets makes too much sense not lean into.

There’s also the fact the Commanders almost always check into their nickel defense against 12 personnel which will be music to the Ravens’ collective ears as that was the same ill-advised approach the Buffalo Bills took two weeks ago when they came into M&T Bank Stadium and got steamrolled to the tune of 271 yards on the ground in a blowout win for the home team on Sunday Night Football.

Don’t get beat deep through the air

Even though the Commander’s rushing attack ranks second in the league behind the Ravens, they’re the most dangerous and explosive in the deep passing game with Daniels’ accuracy on throws of over 20-plus yards is among the NFL’s best. He has a pair of dangerous vertical threats at his disposal in Pro Bowler Terry McLaurin and fourth-year pro Dyami Brown, who are both averaging over 13 yards per reception and have at least one touchdown catch of 27-plus yards. After getting lit up for nearly 400 yards and 13.1 per completion in last week’s dramatic win over the Bengals, the secondary of the Ravens can’t afford a repeat performance.

Capitalize on red zone opportunities

The Commanders boast the league’s top-scoring offense with an average of 31 points per game so if this game does somehow become a shootout, finishing drives with touchdowns and not settling for field goals, especially once they get in the opposing team’s 20-yard line, will be paramount to the Ravens avoiding an upset. Luckily, their offense ranks second in points per game (29.4), second in total points (147), first in red zone touchdowns scored (15) and is tied for second in percentage of red zone drives that end in a touchdown (75%).

“Being good in the red zone usually does start with running the ball,” head coach John Harbaugh said. “You have to block people and protect, but it goes next to scheme for sure, because it’s kind of a different kind of scheme game, because things happen so much faster. And thirdly, it ends up being about extended plays, which we’ve been good at as well. So, in all three of those areas, our offense is doing a really nice job. We have to try to keep it going.”

Washington, on the other hand, while highly proficient on third and fourth downs, has only converted 13 of their league-leading 23 red zone trips into touchdowns so if the Ravens’ defense can bend and not break. At the same time, if the offense makes the most of their scoring chances in that area of the field, they’ll be poised to outpace their foes on the scoreboard.

Make opposing offense one dimensional

Sunday’s matchup will pit the league’s stingiest run defense against its second-best rushing attack. The Commanders rank second behind the Ravens in rushing yards (892) and yards per game (178.4) on offense while Baltimore’s defense is yielding a league-low 60.4 yards per game and has only given up 302 yards on the ground through five games. This will be by far the toughest defense overall but especially from a stuffing-the-run standpoint that Washington has faced thus far as four of the team’s first five opponents rank in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed.

The Commanders could be without their starting running back Brian Robinson who leads the team with 325 rushing yards and five touchdowns due to a knee injury that kept him out of practice all week. They still have veteran Austin Ekeler who is a threat as a runner and a third-down specialist who thrives coming out of the backfield. Daniels is the team’s second-leading rusher with 300 yards and four touchdowns and since he does most of his damage on the ground on scrambles, maintaining rush lane integrity in the trenches will be crucial. The Ravens have hardly given up any rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks with just 48 total through five games and none have rushed more than 22 yards in a single game but Daniels will certainly try to top that figure if need be.

Confuse rookie quarterback with different looks

The Commanders have yet to face an opposing defense that is as loaded and talented as the Ravens are at all three levels with studs and stars both down the spine and on the edges and perimeters. They also haven’t gone up against a unit that deploys the litany of diverse coverages that Baltimore presents. Given that Daniels will be making just the sixth regular-season start of his young career, he has yet to see everything there is at the professional level which bodes well in the Ravens’ favor as defensive coordinator Zach Orr and his staff can dial up plays where they show one look pre-snap and play something entirely different once the ball is in play on simulated pressures and disguised coverages. The rookie sensation has thrown an interception in each of his last two games after not having any in his first three and could very well extend his turnover streak by the Ravens for a big play or two in this game.