Survey results!!
My, how times have changed in Washington!
Ron Rivera spent his first three seasons in DC trying to “change the culture” that had been established by Jay Gruden under the direction of Bruce Allen and the previous owner. As head coach, he was moderately successful; as the top personnel decision-maker, he was atrocious. He left behind a smoldering wreck of a roster. Today, only 6 players remain on the Commanders roster from Rivera’s 4 drafts. None of his 4 first-round picks are still with the team.
Ron’s final season in charge was 2023, which is the year the ownership changed. With the sale being finalized just before the start of training camp, new owner Josh Harris took a bit of a ‘hands off’ approach to most football operations, and 2023 ended up as a “lost” year, with the Commanders finishing 4-13 and arguably playing the worst football in the league by mid-December.
Last year, 2024, will likely end up being remembered as the most pivotal in the history of the franchise. Josh Harris became very “hands on”. He hired Adam Peters to be the general manager of the team, and empowered him to take total control of football operations. Peters hired Dan Quinn as the head coach, fully empowering him to build a championship coaching staff, before selecting QB Jayden Daniels No. 2 overall in last April’s draft.
Very little went wrong in 2024. There was a 3-game mid-season losing streak that was probably caused mostly by a JD5 rib injury, and, of course, the 55-23 loss to the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game, but the Commanders won 12 regular season games for the first time in 33 years, and had two significant playoff victories that came against the Buccaneers and (especially) the Lions, who were considered by many to be the favorites to win the NFC championship.
Expectations for the upcoming season
Confidence breeds success and success breeds confidence, so nowadays, Commanders fans are expecting more from the team than they have in many years.
In this week’s Reacts survey, we asked Hogs Haven readers to pick the over or under against the betting line set by FanDuel of 9.5 wins for the upcoming 2025 season.
The response was pretty lopsided.
Nearly 9 out of every 10 respondents took the “over”, which was not the least bit surprising. Not only will Jayden Daniels return for his second NFL season as the reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, he will do so as the leader of a beefed-up offense thanks primarily to a pair of offseason trades that added Laremy Tunsil — one of the best left tackles in the NFL — and Deebo Samuel, an explosive offensive weapon who seems custom-made for the Kliff Kingsbury offense that we saw debuted in 2024.
Adam Peters has also re-made the defense via free agency this offseason, primarily focusing on the defensive line, seemingly in an effort to bolster the run defense after Washington ranked 30th in the NFL in ‘24, giving up an average of 137.5 rush yards per game. This was probably seen as an even more urgent priority because Washington has to solve the problem of a Saquon Barkley-led Eagles rushing attack in order to win the NFC East division and move beyond the NFC Championship Game.
Washington will face a much tougher schedule in 2025, but it will do so with several advantages.
Firstly, the Commanders won’t be spotting the NFL an opening-week loss like they did a year ago when the new head coach with a rookie quarterback and totally remade roster traveled to Tampa Bay to take on an experienced playoff team and an almost automatic “L”. This year, Washington should be the hunter and not the hunted in September games.
Secondly, the home field advantage that the Commanders rode to a 7-2 record in 2024 should be more advantageous this season as newly inspired fans become first-time season ticket holders who will cheer for the good guys and make life tougher for the bad guys eight times in the 2025 regular season, and hopefully at least once or twice in the playoffs.
Washington will also benefit from an established identity and a returning core of players that set a foundation for the roster. While there has been a lot of commentary on Adam Peters’ heavy use of one-year contracts in his efforts to re-build the decimated roster that he inherited, it’s been largely overlooked that the GM extended at least 17 players who finished the ‘24 season on expiring contracts. This means that there is a lot more roster stability than many NFL observers realize. While the 2024 Commanders entered the May and June offseason program as a group of coaches and players who were mostly unfamiliar with one another, they ended the season as a cohesive group of over-achievers who carry a winning identity forward into 2025. The foundation is built; now the task is to raise the ceiling.
The upcoming draft
As mentioned, part of the work of raising the ceiling was accomplished via veteran free agency signings and two key trades, but the work isn’t over. We’re only about 12 days away from the NFL draft, which starts on Thursday April 24th in Green Bay.
Washington currently has five draft picks, with only three inside the first 200 picks.
The roster appears to need more work on the defensive side of the ball, and the current roster composition is weighted towards the offense, with 40 offensive players (including QB Josh Johnson, whose signing was publicly reported this week) and just 32 defensive players.
In our Reacts survey this week, our second question asked how many offensive players would be selected by the Commanders in the first five rounds of draft (the top 176 picks).
The results are a bit surprising.
With only three picks in the first 5 rounds in hand, more than half of Hogs Haven readers who responded to this survey said that the Commanders would pick two offensive players.
This seems a bit counter-intuitive at first blush, but it makes a lot more sense in the context of fan expectations. In short, a lot of people expect Adam Peters to parlay the 29th overall pick (and maybe more) into additional picks by trading out of the first round on Day 1 of this month’s draft.
Many respondents are expecting Peters to have 4 or more picks in the first 5 rounds. Of those surveyed, 89% expect AP to use one or two of them on offense, most likely selecting a wide receiver, running back or offensive lineman. If AP does trade down, that would still leave two or more picks available to address needs on the defensive side of the ball, most likely by focusing on edge rusher, cornerback or safety.
Whatever strategy unfolds, the job Adam Peters did in his inaugural season as Washington GM has earned him a lot of goodwill and trust among the Washington fan base, who seem perfectly willing to sit back and let Adam cook.
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