Survey results!!
What a difference a week makes!
Last week, fan confidence, as measured in our weekly Reacts survey, fell to its lowest point in 2024 following an unexpected home loss to an injured and struggling Dallas Cowboys team. After that bad loss, only 57% of Hogs Haven readers surveyed expressed confidence in the direction of the team.
This past Sunday, the Commanders thrashed the Titans 42-19, and, seemingly as a result of that, this week, fan confidence bounced back up above 92%, where it had been from Week 3 to Week 12.
In this week’s survey of Hog’s Haven readers, 97% of those responding to the survey were positive in their assessment of the team’s direction.
Outlook for the final quarter of the season
It seemed like a good time to find out whether that overall confidence extends to expectations for the team to add to the win column in December and January, so our second question in this week’s survey asked our readers to predict the Commanders’ record for the final 4 games of the regular season.
This isn’t the first time we’ve asked this question in 2024
In prior surveys, we asked for predictions about each of the first three months of the season, and Hogs Haven members proved themselves pretty good at predicting win totals. If you take the most popular prediction for each month and add them together, the collective expectation was for an 8-4 record at the end of November, with a 9th win predicted to come against the Titans to open the month of December.
Washington actually opened with a 3-1 record in September, another 3-1 record in October, but a disappointing 1-3 in November. With the thrashing of the Titans last week, the Commanders actually have an 8-5 record as we take a breath during this week’s bye.
Commanders fans are bullish about the stretch run
In all, 63% of Hogs Haven readers responding to this week’s Reacts survey predict that the team will win at least three of the remaining four regular season games, and 97% of respondents believe the team will do no worse than a .500 finish in the balance of the regular season.
If we focus only on the most popular answer — the 53% of respondents who predict a 3-1 finish — that implies a full-season record of 11-6, which would be a significant franchise milestone. Washington hasn’t won 11 games or more in any season since 1991, when the Redskins went 14-2 in the regular season and won Super Bowl XXVI.
The Eagles appear to be the biggest stumbling block
Of the four games remaining on Washington’s schedule — on the road at the Saints and Cowboys, and home against the Falcons and Eagles — the one that seems most likely to add an “L” to the Commanders’ record is the game against Philadelphia in Week 16. Of course, the 10% of survey respondents who predicted a 4-0 finish clearly feel as though Philly is not invulnerable.
The NFC wildcard race
If the NFC playoff seedings were to be decided based on current records (they won’t be), then Washington would be the 7th (and final) seed. The division winners would, of course, be the four top-seeded teams, while the 10-2 Vikings and the 9-4 Packers would be seeded 5th & 6th, respectively.
Teams still seriously dogging at the Commanders’ heels for the 7th seed include a trio of 6-6 teams (Buccaneers, Cardinals, Rams), though neither the NFC South nor West division winners have yet been decided, and only one NFC team — the NY Giants — has actually been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.
Updated NFC seed forecast after last night’s game. pic.twitter.com/dV6by7I0Dw
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 6, 2024
Despite the fact that the Commanders are mere spectators this weekend due to the team’s December bye week, they cannot be dislodged from the 7th seed by any team winning or losing a Week 14 game.
With the Packers’ loss on Thursday Night Football, Washington still has a chance — 24.1% according to the chart above — of earning the 6th seed in the playoffs.
The tie-breaker works in Washington’s favor
Both Washington and Green Bay play only NFC opponents in the final four weeks of the season. Because of how NFL tie-breakers work, if the Commanders and Packers finish with identical records of either 10-7 or 11-6, then Washington would be the 6th seed and Green Bay would drop to 7th. That means that the Commanders, in order to move past the Packers and earn the 6th seed, need to win one game more than Green Bay in the four weeks remaining in the regular season. For example, if Washington finishes 3-1, then a 2-2 record by the Packers would see Washington move up to the 6th seed.
Of course, the Commanders need to keep winning to make sure no other teams catch them from behind and supplant them as the 7th seed.
So, sit back and relax on this stress-free weekend, but keep in the back of your mind the playoff possibilities as you watch games that might otherwise not seem very important in your life.
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