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NFL divisional round coaching decisions: Commanders’ Kliff Kingsbury rises to challenge
The Commanders have used no-huddle all season but right off the bat, the Lions were huddling and because of that, were lining up late. There was even a play when corner Terrion Arnold almost didn’t see a receiver lined up outside of him until the last second. That can’t happen. Glenn likely had some complicated blitz calls that he felt were better communicated in the huddle but the Lions didn’t have much of a shot when they struggled to line up in time. This was a problem before they were hit by injuries — before Week 15, they ranked 29th in success rate against no-huddle snaps.
I had doubts about Kingsbury based on his offense as head coach of the Arizona Cardinals. His offense was too basic, too horizontal, and the plays didn’t build on each other. He has adjusted with the Commanders. An example is receiver alignment. With the Cardinals, receivers hardly moved to different spots because it’s an old Air Raid offense principle to have receivers master running routes from one spot and it’s hard to move around too much when running no-huddle.
From Weeks 1-12, McLaurin only lined to the right of the formation on 14 percent of the plays. Against the Eagles, he had to deal with an unfavorable matchup against their best corner, Quinyon Mitchell, the entire game rather than move around to create favorable matchups. From Weeks 13 to the divisional round, McLaurin lined up to the right of the formation on 24 percent of his snaps. It’s a small adjustment but makes it more difficult for defenses to take McLaurin out of the game with double teams or matching him up with their best corner.
Kingsbury has called a couple of great games. One was against the Buccaneers, who rank 23rd in defensive EPA per dropback, and the other against an injury-riddled Lions defense.
Bullock’s Film Room (subscription)
Kliff Kingsbury gets Commanders run game going vs Lions
Breaking down how Kingsbury’s schemes helped spark the Commanders run game to life vs Detroit.
[W]hat changed for the Commanders to suddenly be able to run the ball? Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and his staff put together a strong plan that worked perfectly against a vulnerable Lions defense. They knew the Lions were likely to try and blitz a lot. That’s what they like to do normally, but with the number of injuries they have, the Lions had been leaning even more heavily into blitzes to try and force mistakes from the opposition. So Kingsbury and his staff played into that desire to blitz with run-pass options (RPOs).
This was Brian Robinson’s first carry of the game. You can see the Commanders call an RPO with two separate plays packaged together. The primary option here is the run scheme. The Commanders use a sweep scheme, with both guards pulling to the edge while the rest of the offense looks to pin the defense inside. On the outside, the Commanders have all three receivers in a bunch set to the right of the formation. Those three receivers execute a tunnel screen, with the outside receiver working back inside to receive the screen pass while the other two set up blocks for him.
The read for Daniels is simple here, he just has to play a numbers game. He has to count the number of defenders in the box and compare that to the number of defenders over the tunnel screen to decide if he should hand the ball off or throw the screen. On this occasion, you can see the Lions start with three defenders over the tunnel screen, but also have linebacker Jack Campbell walked out towards that bunch formation. He’s not quite all the way out there, but he is far enough out of the box that the Commanders can count him out.
That means the Lions only have six defenders in the box against six blockers, which is a good box count for the offense. Daniels snaps the ball and just keeps his eye on Campbell, who does step inside towards the run, but isn’t fully committing to it. With the run being a sweep scheme to the other side of the line, Daniels knows Campbell is unlikely to be able to work all the way across the line and make the tackle, so he hands it off to Robinson.
The run scheme is a good design. Left guard Nick Allegretti pulls and kicks out the edge defender while right guard Sam Cosmi pulls and wraps around for the cornerback that is down in the box. Tight end John Bates then works back down the line to block the linebacker and pin him inside. The scheme is blocked beautifully and Robinson works untouched into the secondary. He even makes a nice cut to avoid Campbell trying to catch up from the back side in order to extend the run before eventually being brought down for a 14-yard gain.
That scheme set the table for the Commanders. I think the primary reason for the scheme was to try and uncover some of the Lions’ blitz packages. You’ll noticed that the bunch set was aligned a bit wider than we’ve typically seen from Washington this year. That was on purpose. The Lions love to blitz their slot corners and safeties off the edge, so by aligning the bunch that bit wider, it forces the defense to uncover their blitz intentions. If the slot corner wants to blitz, they can’t start from that wide or they’ll never get to the quarterback in time, so instead they have to show their intentions early, making it easier for Jayden Daniels to identify the blitz threat and change the protection to get it picked up or just throw over it.
This is precisely what happened on the Terry McLaurin touchdown. The Commanders called the same sweep/tunnel screen RPO we just saw and it uncovered a slot blitz from the Lions.
This is the exact same scheme we just saw, but flipped. This time the bunch set of three receivers is aligned to the left of the formation rather than the right, but you’ll notice they maintain that wider alignment out by the numbers. The Lions have a nickel blitz called, with defensive back Brian Branch blitzing off the slot. With the alignment of the bunch so wide, he can’t afford to stay outside to disguise the blitz because he knows it’s too much ground to make up. So instead, he shuffles inside and makes it obvious he’s blitzing before the snap. Before Daniels even snaps the ball, Branch has gotten well inside the defensive end, making it extremely obvious he’s blitzing.
With that information, Daniels receives the snap and immediately fires the ball out to McLaurin on the tunnel screen.
Once the Commanders hit that screen to McLaurin for a touchdown, things opened up in the run game significantly. Whenever they called an RPO, the Lions were forced to respect the screen threat and thus were left light in the box against the run.
CBS Sports
Why Commanders’ Jayden Daniels could be having best rookie season in NFL history
The dynamic quarterback is on the verge of having the greatest rookie season ever
Daniels is the second rookie quarterback to defeat his conference’s No. 1 seed in playoffs along with then-Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco, who beat the 2008 season’s No. 1 seed in the AFC, the Tennessee Titans, in the AFC divisional round. Unlike Roethlisberger in the 2004 postseason (three touchdown passes, five interceptions) and Flacco in the 2008 postseason (one touchdown, three interceptions), Daniels was not aided by teams that possessed top-five scoring defenses like both of those two were. He entered the playoffs with the NFL’s 18th-ranked scoring defense.
Upon arriving in the postseason, Daniels has put up generational production through his first two games, literally. He has more wins (two) than negative plays (one sack in the wild-card round and no interceptions or fumbles), and he has thrown for 567 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions while completing 69.7% of his passes in addition to rushing for 87 yards on 29 carries. Only two other quarterbacks have hit the benchmarks of at least 500 passing yards, 75 rushing yards, four passing touchdowns and no turnovers in the first two games of a single postseason in NFL history, regardless of experience: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes in 2019, when he went on to win his first Super Bowl and Super Bowl MVP, and Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen in 2021.
The 2024 NFL Draft’s second overall pick is also the first player since at least the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, per CBS Sports Research, with at least 250 passing yards, multiple passing touchdowns and no interceptions in each of his first two career playoff games.
In Washington’s Week 16 win, the Eagles attempted to treat the Commanders quarterback like the rookie he is by blitzing Daniels on 35.6% of his dropbacks, which was Philadelphia’s second-highest blitz rate in a game of the 2024 season, including the playoffs.
That approach didn’t work so well with Daniels shredding the Eagles’ blitz for 173 yards passing, three touchdowns and no interceptions on 10 of his 15 throws while being blitzed. That netted out to a 145.3 passer rating, which was the third highest in an NFL game this season when blitzed on at least 15 throws in a game.
Pro Football Focus
Why your team won, lost: NFL divisional round
Why the Commanders won
Jayden Daniels’ lore grows: Jayden Daniels was excellent in the win, and much of his production came when the Lions blitzed him. Daniels was blitzed on 47.2% of his dropbacks, but he completed 12 of 15 pass attempts for 200 yards and a touchdown, averaging 13.3 yards per attempt and earning a 92.5 grade. He also had a big-time throw against the blitz and was sacked zero times. He was on fire.
The defense makes just enough plays: The Commanders defense gave up 31 points in the game, but it did enough to make a few plays in the game, which was enough to pick up the victory. The defense forced five turnovers, picking off Jared Goff three times while forcing another fumble and picking off Jameson Williams. Rookie Mike Sainristil picked off Goff twice and earned a 72.3 grade, while Quan Martin took an interception back for six points, earning a 75.0 grade.
Efficient running helps carry the load: Daniels, Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson proved to be effective on the ground for the Commanders, carrying the ball a combined 42 times for 182 yards and two rushing touchdowns while Jeremy McNichols added a third. Robinson led the way with 77 yards and two touchdowns, earning a 75.6 rushing grade, but the Commanders averaged 4.3 yards per carry as a team and churned out efficient yards.
Why the Lions lost
The Lions’ defense struggles to finish: The Lions pass rush got after Daniels, pressuring him on 36.1% of his dropbacks and registering 17 pressures in total, but their inability to sack Daniels and cut drives short hurt throughout the game. Daniels has shown a penchant for avoiding sacks in his rookie season, and the Lions pass rush just couldn’t get hands on him. Pressures are good, but defenses must be able to turn them into sacks.
Goff and the offense can’t take care of the ball: Just as turnovers benefitted the Commanders, they were the Lions’ undoing. Goff turned the ball over three times in the first half, and the Lions’ inability to protect the football saw them down by 10 and chasing the game by the half. Goff turned the ball over again in the second half, and Williams threw an errant interception on a trick play. Not protecting the ball in the biggest moments cost the Lions.
Yards after the catch struggles: [T]he defense struggled to take down open ball-carriers and allowed 193 yards after the catch to the Commanders receivers.
Commanders.com
Jayden Daniels voted PFWA 2024 Rookie of the Year and Offensive Rookie of the Year
Daniels is the second player in Washington history to be selected as the PFWA’s Rookie of the Year, as running back Mike Thomas captured the 1975 award. Daniels is also the second Washington player to be the PFWA’s Offensive Rookie of the Year, joining quarterback Robert Griffin III, who won the award in 2012.
The 2024 All-Rookie team offense is made up of the Commanders’ Daniels at quarterback, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Bucky Irving and the Giants’ Tyrone Tracy Jr. at running back, the Giants’ Malik Nabers and the Jaguars’ Brian Thomas Jr. (also a PFWA All-AFC selection) at wide receiver, the Raiders’ Brock Bowers at tight end (also a PFWA All-NFL and All-AFC selection), the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Zach Frazier at center, the Raiders’ Jackson Powers-Johnson and the San Francisco 49ers’ Dominick Puni at guard with the Los Angeles Chargers’ Joe Alt and the Baltimore Ravens’ Roger Rosengarten at tackle.
For clarity, this is not the AP Rookie of the year, which will be announced at the NFL Honors presentation just before the Super Bowl along with the Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Year Award and other AP awards.
Upcoming opponent
Bleeding Green Nation
Report: Jalen Hurts and Quinyon Mitchell will play in Eagles vs. Commanders NFC Championship Game
Jalen Hurts and Quinyon Mitchell will indeed play in the Philadelphia Eagles’ playoff matchup against the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship Game this weekend, according to a report from 6ABC’s Jason Dumas.
Hurts suffered a knee injury during the Eagles’ Divisional Round win over the Los Angeles Rams but didn’t miss a snap. His mobility did appear to be limited, however, and it remains to be seen if that’ll be the case again moving forward.
Mitchell, meanwhile, suffered a shoulder injury on the Rams’ first drive and did not return. Isaiah Rodgers filled in for Mitchell the rest of the game. Speaking in the locker room after the win, Mitchell told the Inquirer he’s “going to be good” to play against the Commanders. Additional reporting from Jordan Schultz stated that the Eagles were “hopeful and optimistic” about Mitchell’s chances of playing.
The Eagles and Commanders will each issue their first version on Wednesday afternoon.
Bleeding Green Nation
What’s changed since the Eagles and Commanders last played each other?
Let’s take a look at what’s changed since the Eagles’ last loss.
- EAGLES INJURIES PRIOR TO THE GAME: The Eagles entered Week 16 with Britain Covey and Bryce Huff ruled out on the final injury report. Covey is now on injured reserve and Huff has played one defensive snap in two playoff games. The Eagles also notably had Dallas Goedert on injured reserve but he’s back now. Goedert saw five targets for five catches and 61 yards in the first Eagles-Commanders game.
- EAGLES INJURIES DURING THE GAME: The big one was Jalen Hurts suffering a concussion due to a hit from Frankie Luvu. Hurts left the game with more than nine minutes remaining in the first quarter. Kenny Pickett took over for…Hurts and finished the game despite suffering broken ribs in the third quarter. Another big absence was not injury-related but rather involved C.J. Gardner-Johnson getting ejected early in the third quarter for a second unsportsmanlike penalty (BS). Nakobe Dean, Darius Slay, Josh Sweat, and Jordan Davis all got banged up and missed some snaps but finished the game. Dean’s injury caused him to miss Week 17, though.
- EAGLES INJURIES SINCE THE GAME: Hurts’ knee was clearly bothering bothering him in the Eagles’ win over the Rams but there’s been no indication he won’t play against the Commanders. Of course, Hurts’ mobility might be limited. Quinyon Mitchell also got banged up against the Rams and it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to play against Washington. Mitchell sounded optimistic about his status but this week’s injury report bears monitoring. Dean is the Eagles’ most notable injured reserve addition since last playing the Commanders. Dean led the Eagles in total tackles back in Week 16.
- COMMANDERS INJURIES PRIOR TO THE GAME: The only player Washington ruled out for Week 16 was two-time Pro Bowler Jonathan Allen, who is now back from injured reserve. Allen missed the first two Eagles-Commanders meetings this season. Austin Ekeler is also back from injured reserve. Ekeler hurt the Eagles in Week 11 as the Commanders’ leading receiver with eight catches for 89 yards.
- COMMANDERS INJURIES DURING THE GAME: Starting right tackle Andrew Wylie, starting wide receiver Dyami Brown, and starting cornerback Marshon Lattimore all got banged up and missed snaps during the last game.
- COMMANDERS INJURIES SINCE THE GAME: The big one is Commanders starting right guard Sam Cosmi suffering a season-ending ACL injury in the Divisional Round. Cosmi, who is Washington’s top-graded starting offensive lineman by Pro Football Focus, had some good battles with Jalen Carter. Big loss for them.
- JAYDEN DANIELS ON FIRE: Daniels obviously played well against the Eagles in Week 16 but he also threw two interceptions in that game. Since that meeting: 74/114 (65% completion), 832 yards (7.3 yards per attempt), 7 TD, 1 INT, 103.4 passer rating … 49 rushes, 241 rushing yards. He’s been real sharp.
- THE COMMANDERS’ DEFENSE HAS BEEN GETTABLE: Washington is allowing 380 yards per game since beating the Eagles. For perspective, the Carolina Panthers allowed the most yards per game in 2024 with 404.5. The Commanders are allowing 144.5 rushing yards per game during that stretch. Only the Panthers allowed more rushing yards per game in 2024. The Eagles had the top-two rushing performances against the Commanders this season with 228 yards in Week 11 and 211 in Week 16.
- NEW EAGLES KICKOFF APPROACH: Braden Mann’s short kickoffs allowed the Commanders to start with really good field position on almost all of their drives in Week 16. Since then, the Eagles have gone back to Jake Elliott handling kickoff duty. Elliott is better at driving the ball through the end zone for touchbacks.
- HOME SWEET HOME: The Eagles haven’t played on the road since losing to the Commanders; the Birds are set for a fifth straight home game. The Eagles haven’t been on a plane since returning to Philly from LA on November 24. The Commanders, meanwhile, are playing their fourth straight road game after flights to Dallas, Tampa, and Detroit. Washington hasn’t been fazed by travel to this point and the Eagles are obviously only a relatively short trip up I-95.
- REST DISADVANTAGE: Rest-wise, the Eagles and Commanders were on relatively equal footing the last time they played. The Eagles hosted a Week 15 game starting at 4:25 PM Eastern while the Commanders played a road game in New Orleans earlier that day at 1:00 PM Eastern. This time around, the Commanders have a one-day rest advantage since they beat the Detroit Lions on Saturday night and the Eagles played on Sunday afternoon.
- REF ADVANTAGE: Last time, Shawn Smith’s crew made some questionable calls against the Eagles such as a weak flag on Milton Williams for roughing the passer and the CJGJ ejection. As outlined leading up to the Rams matchup, the Eagles’ opponents have gotten a more favorable whistle in Smith games. This time around, the Eagles might stand to benefit. They are 6-1 when this week’s referee, Shawn Hoculi, officiates their games. [Hoculi was in charge at the Saints game when the officials allowed the game clock to stop for no reason for 3 seconds as the Saints tried desperately to score before time expired].
Podcasts & videos
Why The Commanders Are Going To The Super Bowl.. | All-22 Film Review (Coaches Film)
Rich Eisen on the Possibility of a Jayden Daniels Trip to the Super Bowl | What the Football Podcast
Takeaways from Commanders upset win vs. Lions | ‘GMFB’
Logan Paulsen: Commanders Will Stun The Eagles | Sports Junkies
With @RealBramW with early thoughts on the Commanders-Eagles. Blocking Carter. A battle-tested team. Dream season continues. More. @ESPNRichmond https://t.co/T4hxJU9lrZ
— John Keim (@john_keim) January 22, 2025
NFC East links
Big Blue View
2025 NFL Draft: What might it cost the New York Giants to get the No. 1 pick?
Let’s just say the price would be high
The New York Giants could have controlled the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft if they had simply lost to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 17. Alas, they did not. So, they sit at No. 3 in the draft order.
What if GM Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll decide they love Cam Ward of Miami or Shedeur Sanders of Colorado enough to stake their future employment on one of them by trying to trade up to No. 1 with the Tennessee Titans?
Remember John Mara’s warning on ‘Hard Knocks’ about not giving away too much? If you get the quarterback but have no draft assets left to add quality players you risk wasting the the quarterback.
So, if the Giants do want to move up to No. 1, what is the right price?
Hefner’s research shows that the classic Johnson chart remains the one that most accurately depicts the trades teams make that involve first- and second-round draft assets. So, we will use the Johnson chart.
Using that chart, the first overall pick is worth 3,000 points.
In a recent mock draft, Jamie Eisner of The Draft Network had the Giants moving up to NO. 1 to select Ward. His trade:
- Giants get: 2025 No. 1 overall pick
- Titans get: Picks 3, 34, 65 in 2025 and a second-round pick in 2026
The combined value of the…picks the Giants surrendered is 3,214 points. That is workable, even if the Titans might try to squeeze the Giants — as the move up aggressor in this trade — for a little more.
I am not crazy about giving up a second first-round pick, but the Giants were willing to do it in 2024 and it does leave at least one Day 2 asset for the Giants to add in the 2025 draft.
Given the pressure they will be under to field an improved, far more competitive, product in 2025 I am not sure Schoen and Daboll can strip their 2025 draft class and put so many eggs in the Wars/Sanders basket.
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Articles
Front Office Sports
Eagles Get Rare 3rd Home Playoff Game—but Won’t Make Big Profit
The Eagles will be playing at Lincoln Financial Field for the third straight weekend, which is uncommon during the NFL playoffs. However, the financial reward is slim.
[W]ith the expanded postseason, teams seeded Nos. 2 through 4 have a chance to host three playoff games if the cards fall their way.
The Chiefs are the only other team to do so, when they were a two-seed in 2021, and played three games at Arrowhead Stadium. That same season, the Rams hosted two playoff games, and Super Bowl LVI was played at their home venue, SoFi Stadium, but that is considered a neutral-site game.
Home Field Advantage?
While the accomplishment is a nice treat for Eagles fans who want to support their team throughout January—Lincoln Financial Field will welcome more than 200,000 this postseason—it’s not as lucrative for the franchise’s bottom line as one might think.
Home teams in the NFL playoffs don’t keep revenue from postseason-ticket sales (as they do in the regular season), which is collected by the league and distributed out to all 32 franchises equally. Major matchups like playoff games can easily surpass $10 million in ticket sales.
However, home clubs do get to keep game-day revenue like parking fees and in-stadium concession sales, which can total more than $1 million per game in some cases.
Deadspin
Ben Johnson Needs To Be the Right Hire for Chicago Bears
The Bears aren’t in a spot where they can afford to be bad for much longer. They have a handful of veterans on their roster that are ready to win now. They’re in the heat of negotiations regarding a new stadium. Oh yeah, and Williams is on his rookie deal, where we’ve seen organizations get desperate and cater to every need of their premier quarterback.
He’s got Williams on a rookie contract for four more seasons. That’s usually the sweet spot for teams to capitalize on a cheap quarterback with talented veterans and make some noise in the playoffs. For example, look at what the Washington Commanders are doing with Jayden Daniels, who is adding even more pressure onto the situation in Chicago.
According to reports, Williams advocated for the Bears to hire Johnson, and this is now a pairing that absolutely needs to work. If Williams doesn’t start dazzling the airways soon, Johnson could be back to a coordinator job as the Bears will work tirelessly to make this draft pick work.