Daily Slop – 26 Nov 24: Commanders are struggling to maintain early-season offensive magic

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audacity.com

SNIDER: Commanders’ playoff hopes flickering

For the third straight game, the offense looked more confused than Democratic pollsters. Add two injured running backs and two injured offensive linemen, and Washington’s postseason chances that once seemed certain are now flickering amid the darkness.

Yes, there are six games left so anything can happen. But, nothing good happened in Sunday’s loss. Losing running back Brian Robinson on the first play with an ankle injury hobbled the game plan even if he briefly returned. Losing Ekeler was a double whammy for the future. Look for a whole lot of Jeremy McNichols against Tennessee as you Google his bio.

Meanwhile, right tackle Andrew Wylie and center Tyler Biadasz also left with injuries that will likely carry over against Tennessee on Dec. 1.

It gets worse. The play calling has been awful. Maybe it’s quarterback Jayden Daniels’ rib injury, perhaps it’s just defenses figuring out Kingsbury. Either way, something must change. But given injuries, that may be harder than believed.

Overall, Washington has big problems that probably can’t be overcome this season. Maybe the Commanders limp into the postseason before a quick exit, but the roster makeover of the past offseason will be repeated once more.

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Bullock’s Film Room (subscription)

Commanders struggled to pick up Cowboys pressure scheme

Breaking down a specific pressure scheme the Cowboys designed to attack one of the Commanders core protection schemes

They’ve largely used the same plan to handle each one of those edge rushers, I went into detail on how they shut down Myles Garrett earlier this season if you want a more detailed breakdown, but in short, the Commanders committed to chipping on the edge.

Here are three examples in various games from earlier this season. On all three plays, the Commanders are in an empty backfield and use a combination of a receiver and a tight end or running back to chip both edge rushers on either side of the line in order to slow them down and provide as much help as possible to the offensive tackles. This has been very effective in helping slow down the games elite rushers, as seen in these clips and by the fact that Garrett, Hendrickson and Watt have just one sack between them against the Commanders this year.

It does come with its drawbacks though. The Steelers game showed that. By having two eligible receivers chip on the edge, both of those players are prevented from running proper routes. Instead, they have to run some form of late checkdown underneath, typically in the flat.

[I]t would be easy to assume the Commanders, facing another elite edge rusher in Micah Parsons this weekend, would deploy the same tactic and have similar success. Well, they did try the same tactic, but the Cowboys were prepared for it and had answers.

On the Commanders third drive of the game, they faced a third and seven situation. They went to their default protection plan, using an empty formation with running back Austin Ekeler chipping to the left side and tight end Zach Ertz chipping to the right. The problem for the Commanders is that Micah Parsons is so versatile and can line up in just about any spot. The Cowboys make great use of this and shift him inside to defensive tackle on this play. They knew the Commanders would try and chip on both edges to ensure help on either side, so instead of letting Parsons get chipped and have to work through it, they just moved him inside, knowing the Commanders weren’t likely to try and run the ball on third and long.

But the Cowboys didn’t stop there. The interior of the Commanders offensive line have been very strong so far this season, but in these situations they typically face some form of three-on-two, where center Tyler Biadasz can slide one way or the other to help out either guard if needed. So the Cowboys add another layer onto this plan. To ensure Parsons still gets a one-on-one, they add a linebacker to the blitz inside and use a stunt to try and confuse things further for the interior offensive lineman.

At the snap of the ball, you can see Biadasz initially works to his right and looks at Parsons, ready to help right guard Sam Cosmi pick him up. However, Biadasz then spots the linebacker blitzing from the second level and has to account for him. The linebacker attacks the left side, taking Biadasz away from Cosmi to ensure a one-on-one. Cosmi has developed into a very good guard capable of some high quality reps, but even he will struggle one-on-one against a rusher like Parsons. He oversets to the edge, clearly expecting help from Biadasz inside that never arrives. Parsons stunts inside and bursts past Cosmi on his way into the backfield. Daniels is forced to take off scrambling and Parsons chases him down to the sideline, where Daniels just throws the ball away at the last second to avoid the sack.

It was a very well thought out and designed rush plan from the Cowboys that took advantage of a scheme that has been a real strength for Washington this season. Every time the Commanders got into a third and long situation in the first half, the Cowboys used a similar plan.

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Washington Post (paywall)

7 things that have gone wrong for the Commanders since their hot start

From quarterback Jayden Daniels to offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury to kicker Austin Seibert to the supporting cast, Washington’s play has slipped.

1 Offensive execution

By nearly every metric, the unit that set the league ablaze has cooled off. It is scoring fewer points, sustaining fewer drives, hitting fewer explosive plays, turning the ball over more and dropping far more passes. The Commanders dropped just eight passes in their first nine games — and seven over their past three, according to Pro Football Focus.

2 Jayden Daniels

While quarterback Jayden Daniels had moments against the Cowboys, especially late in the game, he and the passing game had one of their worst performances. The problem, Daniels said, was the team got behind the chains, which created many third and longs. Over the first nine weeks, the Commanders faced third and long at a normal rate but converted an incredible 36.7 percent of their chances. If that held up over a full season, it would have been the best conversion rate by any team since 2022. But over the past three weeks, despite facing only a few more third and longs, the Commanders’ conversion rate has plummeted to 11.1 percent, which, over a full season, would be tied for the worst rate since 2020.

3 Kliff Kingsbury

During the struggles, Kingsbury seemingly tried to make players comfortable by spamming the “no-huddle” button. But it hasn’t worked. Over the past several weeks, he has called no-huddle plays at a high rate, but the efficiency of those plays has decreased.

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Commanders.com

Five takeaways from Washington’s loss to Dallas

2. The defense played well through three quarters again.

Although there were some critical mistakes in the fourth quarter, Washington continued its trend of playing well for most of the game against the Cowboys.

Some of the stats from the Cowboys’ players might look like solid performances. Cooper Rush, for example, completed 75% of his passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns. Running back Rico Dowdle had his second-best game of the season with 86 yards. Backup tight end Luke Schoonmaker filled in nicely for Jake Ferguson, catching three passes for 55 yards and a touchdown.

And yet, the Cowboys’ offense didn’t get going until the fourth quarter. They got into Washington territory on their first two drives but had to settle for field goal attempts, neither of which resulted in points. Like the Commanders, their offense also ran into ruts throughout the afternoon, as they punted three times and gave up a fumble in the first half. It wasn’t until Jalen Brooks made a wild 41-yard grab that they were able to tie things up at 3-3.

The mistakes started to come in the second half, though, and they were made at the worst possible times. Noah Igbinoghene was called for pass interference at the 3-yard line, making it easy for the Cowboys to find pay dirt. Then, following Bates’ fumble, Schoonmaker broke loose wide open up the middle of the defense for a 22-yard touchdown.

The defense forced five punts, forced a turnover and held the offense to 20 points, which normally would give Washington a chance to win. The late mistakes, however, ended up overshadowing the other positives.

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Upcoming opponent

Music City Miracles

Titans’ draft positioning matters less as Will Levis develops

Tennessee Titans starting QB Will Levis is beginning to show flashes that indicate he’s worth investing in

The Titans shouldn’t be considering drafting one of these lackluster quarterback prospects. Drafting early is always worthwhile, but this may not be a year where trading a top overall selection to a QB-needy team is possible, given the league-wide shared sentiments of the prospects available. Instead, the Titans should be focused on drafting the best talent available.

They could alternatively address needs at EDGE (Abdul Carter/James Pearce Jr./Jalon Walker), right tackle (Will Campbell/Kelvin Banks Jr.), or wide receiver (Travis Hunter/Tetairoa McMillan/Luther Burden). The Titans could stick-and-pick one of those premium prospects at a position of need, or trade down and still address a roster hole. They don’t need to select at No. 1 or 2 overall to do that.

Levis has played improved football since returning from injury against three quality defenses coached by Jim Harbaugh, DeMeco Ryans, and Brian Flores. The former Kentucky standout still isn’t perfect, with pocket presence and turnovers being an ongoing weakness, but he’s showing flashes. Levis is currently earning another look in 2025.

Titans vs. Commanders opening odds

I’d consider taking the Titans here. Am I crazy?

Here is a sentence I did not expect to be writing three weeks ago: If I were a betting man, I’d consider betting on the Tennessee Titans this week. They opened as a 5.5-point home underdog against the Washington Commanders at FanDuel Sportsbook. The Commanders come into this game having lost three straight. They just lost to a Dallas Cowboys team that without Dak Prescott is one of the worst teams in the league. The Titans have been playing better the last three weeks with Will Levis looking drastically better after returning from his shoulder injury. I’m not saying I would necessarily take them to win, but they seem like a good bet to cover here.

The key for the Commanders is Jayden Daniels. He got off to a hot start but hasn’t been the same since he suffered a rib injury against the Carolina Panthers on October 20th. If the Titans can keep Daniels from killing them with his legs, they will have a good shot to win. It’s not that Daniels can’t throw from the pocket, but it’s his duel-threat ability that makes him really special.

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Commanders Locker Room: Questions mount after shocking loss to Dallas

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