Daily Slop – 8 Jan 25: The focus is on the trenches as Commanders prepare to travel to Tampa Bay

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Bullock’s Film Room (subscription)

Playoff Preview: Buccaneers run game

Previewing the Bucs run game ahead of the Commanders playoff matchup against Tampa Bay

[The Buccaneers] boast one of the best offenses in the NFL. They ranked fourth overall in rushing, averaging 149.2 rushing yards per game. They went one better in the passing game, ranking third overall with an average of 250.4 yards per game and all that offense wasn’t hollow as they finished fourth in points per game with 29.5 on average.

Clearly then, the Bucs have a formidable offense and the Commanders saw that first hand back in Week 1. With so much offense to talk about, I thought I would split their offense into two parts, the run game and passing game. I will preview their passing game later this week but today I thought I’d focus first and foremost on the run game.

The Bucs run game is very diverse and you’ll see throughout this post that they like to get into a lot of different schemes, but their bread and butter is the zone scheme, which makes sense given offensive coordinator Liam Coen came from Sean McVay’s system with the Rams. They mix in plenty of outside and inside zone schemes, but some of their most effective runs this year have been inside zone runs.

The idea is to make the defense over-pursue to the edge like they would on an outside zone scheme and open up a different lane for the running back to cut into on the back side of the run.

The plays in this clip will often be referred to as split zone schemes. You’ll notice that on all four plays, the Bucs have a player going in motion against the flow of the run either as a jet sweep option or as a sifting blocker to kick out the back side edge defender. By having this player flow against the rest of the line, the offense is trying to get most of the defense to work to the front side of the run and kick out the back side, splitting a lane between the two sides of the defense for the back to cut into.

So how exactly do the Commanders stop it? Well, their method against zone schemes this year has typically been to use run stunts. Zone schemes are set by the offensive lineman all blocking in the same direction and being in unison with who is blocking the defensive lineman and who is climbing up to the second level. If the defense plays the run scheme straight as it lines up, it’s very easy for those offensive lineman to make their blocks and climb up to the second level. One of the best ways to disrupt that is to use stunts, which mix up blocking assignments and make things a lot harder to pick up for the offense. We saw this back in the opening game.

[B]ut run stunts can be very hit and miss. The good ones can create a huge negative play, set up second and long and enable the defense to go into attack mode and finish a drive really quick. That’s why Dan Quinn and Joe Whitt persist with them. But they can just as easily hit incorrectly and create a big lane for the running back to work into. We saw that just this past weekend against the Cowboys.

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Washington Times

LOVERRO: Commanders can’t keep asking Daniels to win games by himself

There won’t be decades to write the obituary of the 2024 Washington Commanders season. But it might be a good idea to have something ready before Sunday night’s wild-card game in Tampa against the Buccaneers [b]ecause the Commanders squad that has fought back to win its last four games with seconds left on the clock won’t likely be able to pull off yet another hard-fought victory against Tampa Bay.

Not against a Todd Bowles-coached unit with a legitimate starting quarterback who threw 41 touchdown passes this season.

It’s unlikely that either rookie sensation Jayden Daniels or veteran backup Marcus Mariota, who saved the day Sunday in Washington’s 23-19 last-second win over the Dallas Cowboys, will be able to take this team on their backs one more time, not in playoff football against a tough opponent, on the road.

If they have a chance on Sunday, they are going to need some help from their teammates this time.

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Washington Post (paywall)

If playoff games are won in the trenches, the Commanders need to dig in

Washington’s biggest weakness could play right into the Buccaneers’ strength when the teams meet in the first round Sunday.

While the Washington Commanders already have exceeded all expectations for this season, and while there are many reasons to be optimistic about the future, Sunday’s dramatic 23-19 win over the Dallas Cowboys spotlighted the weaknesses of the present roster, which could loom large during the first round of the playoffs.

Notably, Washington faltered in the trenches again. The defensive line struggled to get pressure on Cowboys quarterback Trey Lance and to stop inside runs. The offensive line was unable to control the line of scrimmage consistently, which hamstrung any effort to establish anything meaningful with the running backs.

None of those problems are new. Since their Week 14 bye, the Commanders rank 23rd in pressure rate, 24th or worse in several defensive metrics for between-the-tackles runs and 32nd in running back yards per carry. The issues are magnified now because of how they could be exploited Sunday night by the third-seeded Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are strong in those areas.

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ESPN

NFL playoff mythbusters: Why you’re wrong about all 14 teams

Washington Commanders

Myth: The Commanders are in trouble if they have to play an elite running team.

Washington had the third-worst run defense in the NFL by average yards allowed. Teams rushed for 137.5 yards per game against the Commanders. The only teams worse in that regard were the Saints and Panthers, who each finished the season 5-12. And only the Saints and Panthers allowed more yards per carry than the gaudy 4.8 that opposing runners averaged against Washington.

The Lions, Eagles and Rams all love to lean on the run and should theoretically be able to run all over the Commanders in a potential postseason matchup.

Why it’s a myth: Because they win games anyway! The Commanders were 8-3 this season when allowing 120 or more rushing yards in a game, which is the fifth-best record in the league in such games. The fact that they allowed 120 or more rushing yards in 11 games is obviously alarming — only the Bears and Panthers did it more. But look at Buffalo, which allowed 120 or more rushing yards in nine games this season and was 7-2 in those games.

Part of the reason may be that teams have a harder time running on Washington when they get closer to the end zone, relative to the rest of the game. The Commanders’ 18 rushing touchdowns allowed ranks tied for 18th. They have struggled to stop the run all season, and here they still are. So yes, opponents can run it against them but generally have to come up with some other way to beat Jayden Daniels & Co.

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Commanders.com

Playoff picture | Rematches highlight NFC Wild Card Round

No. 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. No. 6 Washington Commanders (Sunday, 8 p.m.)

The Buccaneers and Commanders have taken different paths since Washington last played at Raymond James Stadium. While the Buccaneers still have one of the best offenses in the league, fueled by the connection between Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans, that hasn’t always been enough to save them. They went through a four-game losing streak in the middle of the season and had a scare against the New Orleans Saints to close out the season. Their defense underperformed this year, but it still presents an exotic challenge that gave Washington problems in the first go-around.

Over the last four months, the Commanders have become one of the best stories in the league thanks to Daniels’ record-setting season fueling an offense that finished seventh in yards per game and fifth in points. The past four wins were not easy, though, as sluggish starts forced them to pull out dramatic finishes. To their credit, the Commanders executed in those moments, and the experience of winning those close games might be an advantage in the postseason.

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ESPN

Commanders’ Quinn says he’s not concerned about Daniels’ sore leg

After Sunday’s win Quinn said he did not plan to pull Daniels, but seeing how Dallas was rushing the passer in addition to what he described as “mild leg soreness” he wanted someone who could evade the rush and get outside the pocket. Dallas sacked Daniels four times in the first half and had six overall; Quinn said three of the six sacks could have been avoided.

That has been a strength of Daniels, but the soreness prompted the change to Marcus Mariota, who had a key 33-yard run on fourth-and-1 on the winning touchdown drive.

Quinn said he did not remove Daniels simply because the playoffs were in a week. Washington clinched the No. 6 seed with a win so a loss could have hurt its playoff positioning.

“You have to depend on the game to say what’s required for the game to go win it,” Quinn said. “I thought Dallas was really [getting] upfield and really aggressive. We’d have to get outside the pocket a lot. That’s why I decided.”

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ESPN

NFL playoff bracket: Schedule, Super Bowl odds, stats, more

Washington Commanders (12-5)

• Odds to win Super Bowl: +3000
• FPI chance to make the divisional round: 41.5%
• FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 5.3%

First game outlook: The Commanders return to the playoffs for the first time since 2020 when they play at the No. 3-seeded Buccaneers on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, Peacock). Tampa Bay was also Washington’s opponent the last time the franchise made the postseason, as the Tom Brady-led Buccaneers defeated the then-Washington Football Team in the wild-card round en route to a Super Bowl title. Washington is 1-2 against the Buccaneers in the playoffs. — ESPN

Reason for hope: Quarterback Jayden Daniels. He won’t win the MVP, but few players have been more valuable to their team. Daniels has thrown for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns and rushed for 864 yards and six more scores. He has a knack for big plays at the right time and has led four game-winning drives, with three touchdown passes coming on the final play from scrimmage. Daniels ranks second in the NFL with 12 touchdown passes in the fourth quarter and overtime.

Stat to know: Daniels recorded 59 total EPA on designed runs and scrambles. That’s more than any other player this season and shows just how important Daniels’ rushing production has been to the Commanders. Twenty-six percent of Washington’s third- and fourth-down conversions this season have come via QB run, which ranks third in the league behind the Eagles and Bills. But when you take away plays with one yard to go, the Commanders have used the quarterback run to convert 22% of their third and fourth downs, the highest mark in the NFL — Walder

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Riggo’s Rag

Commanders key numbers, Week 18: No Jayden Daniels, no problem for Washington

Marcus Mariota steps up to lead another comeback win for the Commanders…

For all the criticisms the Commanders face, one thing is for sure. This team knows how to close out games.

Whether it’s Jayden Daniels or Marcus Mariota leading the charge, one thing that this team does not do is quit until the clock hits triple zeroes. That’s a mindset. That’s a testament to the coaching staff. That is what you would call an exceptional culture.

5-0: The Commanders have gone 5-0 in December and January to close out the season after going 0-5 during that period last year. It hasn’t always been pretty, but it is a testament to what Quinn is building. During his first year with the Falcons, the team started 6-3 before losing five of their last seven. When Washington lost three straight after a 7-2 start, there was fear history could be repeating itself, but the Commanders’ finish to the campaign ended those doubts.

141: Mariota played near-perfect football, minus a sack where he tripped on the turf with no defenders around him. He finished with a 141 passer rating and had only three incompletions. On that final drive, the former No. 2 pick went 5-for-6 for 41 yards and added 34 yards on the ground.

162: Washington came into the game allowing the fifth-most rushing yards in the league, just behind Dallas. Although the Commanders’ rushing attack was largely ineffective, the Cowboys were able to gain 150 yards on the ground.

Over the last three weeks, the Commanders have allowed an average of 162 rushing yards per game. This doesn’t bode well as their wildcard opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, has one of the most productive rushing offenses in the league.

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Sports Illustrated

Commanders Rolling Into Playoffs With Confidence That ‘Was Always There’

Now, confidence is back in the team and its rookie quarterback with its retread head coach and potentially washed-up veterans. But that’s outside confidence. Inside the team, it has always been a different story for linebacker Bobby Wagner.

“I didn’t find it. It was always there,” Wagner said about his confidence in his team following the Week 18 win in Dallas. “I see the people that we worked with, I see the men, I see how they perform, I see how they go after it. It was just a lot on us putting it together. So it wasn’t anything crazy. I’ve been around for a long time, and I’ve been in situations where great teams go through hardship, and I felt that’s what it was.”

Not only did Washington get back into the playoff race, despite sitting in sixth place in the conference, Quinn’s team actually has a better record at 12-5 than two of the division champions seeded ahead of it.

If the NFL Playoffs were seeded by record, the Commanders would be fourth, not sixth, and would be hosting the Green Bay Packers.

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Upcoming opponent

ESPN

NFL playoff mythbusters: Why you’re wrong about all 14 teams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Myth: Tampa Bay is inflated by playing in a weak division.

This is the fourth year in a row the Buccaneers have won the NFC South. In 2021, with Tom Brady at quarterback, they went 13-4. But the following year — Brady’s last — they won it at 8-9, and then won it again last season at 9-8.

This season, they finished on top with a 10-7 record, prompting some of the same old criticism about how they wouldn’t make the playoffs if they played in any other division.

Why it’s a myth: Well, first of all, 10-7 isn’t too inflated. If we look at the way the Bucs played against their division opponents and their nondivision opponents, we find a fair bit of evidence that they don’t play much better against Atlanta, Carolina and New Orleans. Sure, they averaged 6.3 more offensive points per game when they played NFC South teams. But their defensive efficiency in division games was actually worse than it was when they traveled outside the division. (Their offensive efficiency was only slightly better in division games.)

The Buccaneers went 4-2 against division foes, with both losses coming to second-place Atlanta. They were 6-5 outside of the division. The metrics show this season’s Buccaneers with a slightly worse defense but a considerably better offense (top-five in the league) than last season’s Buccaneers, who beat the Eagles in a first-round playoff game. There’s no reason to think this isn’t a dangerous team in the postseason.

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ESPN

NFL playoff bracket: Schedule, Super Bowl odds, stats, more

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)

• Odds to win Super Bowl: +3000
• FPI chance to make the divisional round: 58.5%
• FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 11.1%

First game outlook: The Buccaneers made the playoffs for the fifth straight season and will start by hosting the No. 6-seeded Commanders on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, Fox). This is another rematch of a season opener, as Tampa Bay cruised past Washington 37-20 at Raymond James Stadium. This is the fourth straight year the Bucs have hosted a wild-card game, as they beat the Eagles 32-9 in this spot last season. — ESPN

Reason for concern: The defense has struggled with health and consistency. It has rarely had a healthy squad this season, especially in the secondary. While the Buccaneers have given up only 17.0 points per game since their Week 11 bye — second best in the league — only one of those opponents had a winning record. Over the course of the season, Tampa Bay has allowed 249.3 passing yards per game, the fourth most in the league. — Jenna Laine

Heat check rating: 2. It took a much larger effort to beat the Saints in Week 18 than expected, and that pass defense is the culprit — but Mayfield had another shaky game, too. The Buccaneers are in the big dance by the skin of their teeth. — Solak

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Podcasts & videos

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Why The Washington Commanders Can Win Another Week With Jayden Daniels Leading the Ground Game

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