Game Recap – Wild card round vs Buccaneers – Commanders beat Tampa Bay 23-20 and head to Detroit for divisional round playoff

A playoff game between Washington and Tampa Bay is nothing new. Washington’s most recent playoff appearance saw the Taylor Heinicke-led Washington Football Team host the wildcard Buccaneers at the end of the 2020 season in which Washington won the NFC East division title. Washington’s last playoff victory — at the end of the 2005 season — saw the 10-win NFC 2nd place and 6th-seeded Redskins beat the NFC South champion Bucs in Raymond James Stadium by a score of 17-0.

2024 Statistical Comparison

From the standpoint of team statistics, it is clear that this is a matchup of two of the league’s best offenses, with both teams putting up a lot of yards and a lot of points per game. The most notable difference is that the Bucs have the 3rd ranked passing offense at 250.4 yards per game, while Washington ranks 17th at 215.6 yards per game. Both teams average about 64.5 plays per game, so the Bucs have been a bit more efficient in accumulating yards, and have scored one more point per game on average.

The contrast is more apparent with respect to rushing and passing defense. The Commanders are in the bottom-3 teams in rush yards allowed, while the Buccaneers rank 4th. Conversely, Tampa Bay is 4th-worst in the league with respect to pass yards allowed per game, while Washington ranks 3rd overall.

This appears to be a good matchup of strong offenses opposing inconsistent defenses.

Defensively, Todd Bowles is known as an aggressive coach who will attack a quarterback with pressure. Pro Football Reference ranks the Buccaneers #2 in the NFL in blitz rate behind the Minnesota Vikings, and Tampa’s 44.7% Pressure Rate when sending five or more is 12th in the NFL.

However, some of TB’s simulated pressures — where they look like they’re blitzing only to drop someone — haven’t really been been completely successful this year. If they’re only sending four, the defensive pressure rate drops to 32.6%. The inconsistency in their sim pressures this year has led to a lot of problems in their passing game, problems that can be exploited by a QB who is a good processor or one with good mobility and elusiveness.

As we know, Jayden Daniels is both, and he led the NFL this season in number of scrambles (75) and rushing yards by a quarterback (891).

Probably the most noticeable change for the Commanders offense from early- to late-season is in the red zone attack.

• Washington gave the ball to the running backs in the red zone more than 8 times per game in 5 of the team’s first 9 games; in the eight games since, the running backs have gotten the ball more than six times in a game only twice.
• The ball went to TEs & WRs in the red zone only 26 times (total) in the first nine games. In the final eight games, the TEs and WRs got the ball 33 times — including 11 times in the final two games.

Washington has shifted from a running team to a passing team in “winning time moments”, with the exception of quarterback scrambles.

This transition may pay dividends against a Buccaneers defense that is rock-solid against running backs, but more vulnerable to passing attacks and mobile quarterbacks.

Health

Both teams appear to be about as close to full strength as any team is likely to be at the end of a 17-game season.

The key Tampa Bay player with injury news is safety Antoine Winfield, who has been out since suffering a knee sprain in Week 14. Winfield is expected to return for the Bucs today. Safety Jordan Whitehead remains unavailable after injuries sustained in a recent car crash.

Of course, Tampa Bay lost WR Chris Godwin, who played well against Washington, mid-season to a dislocated ankle, but rookie receiver Jalen McMillan has stepped up in his stead and has put up at least 50 yards and a touchdown in each of the past 5 games, with a total of 316 yards and 7 touchdowns from Weeks 14-18. He scored a touchdown on his first NFL reception, which came against the Commanders in Week 1.

Two players of key importance to Washington are center Tyler Biadasz and CB Marshon Lattimore. Biadasz missed two full games and parts of others with injuries this season. He was replaced by Michael Deiter, who appears to be unable to call protections or block — two key responsibilities of an NFL center. There were reports that Biadasz was “close” to being ready to play against Dallas. He should be on the field tonight in Tampa.

Marshon Lattimore will also play tonight. He has played less than 2 full games in a Commanders uniform, but, as a member of the New Orleans Saints, he is well-acquainted with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and ‘old friends’ with WR Mike Evans. Over the years, the two have battled repeatedly and often viciously.

Per Mitch Tischler:

Mike Evans’ career numbers vs Marshon Lattimore:

Regular season

• 33 rec
• 564 yards
• 3 rec TDs
• 2.75 rec/game
• 47 yards/game
• 0.25 rec TDs game

(well below career averages)

Playoffs

• 1 rec, 3 yards

Also, Evans has been fined $100,000+ and suspended 1 game twice, Lattimore $10,500

It seems likely that, when Lattimore takes the field tonight, he will be matched up with Evans most of the night.

Week 1

Every Commanders fan will be aware that this season opened up with a road loss to these Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A lot has changed since then. On the TB side, one of the biggest positive developments has probably been the play of rookie running back Bucky Irving, who has three 100+ yard games in the past five in which he’s gotten at least 5 rushing attempts; he also ran for 89 yards last week against the Saints. Prior to Week 9, he had only one game with more than 70 rushing yards. Washington may struggle to contain him, and if they do, that could open up the passing game for Baker Mayfield, who doesn’t really need a lot of help.

Mayfield’s primary struggle this season has been turnovers. Baker has thrown 16 interceptions this year (2nd-most of his career), and he has been charged with a career high 13 fumbles. If Washington can pressure the Bucs’ QB, they may be able to force turnovers that could help win the game.

For the Commanders offensively, the major change from Week 1 is simply the development of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who has progressed exponentially in 18 weeks. Related to his development is the renaissance of Terry McLaurin in the offense. You’ll recall that Terry opened the season with 17 yards in Week 1 and 22 yards in Week 2. Despite that abysmal start, McLaurin finished the regular season with 1,096 receiving yards and a franchise-record 13 receiving touchdowns. The Washington offense that was held to 20 points by the Buccaneers in the season opener should look very different tonight.

Defensively, the big change has taken place at cornerback. Recall that, in Week 1, the starting corners were Benjamin St-Juste and Emmanuel Forbes. The latter was released mid-season and replaced by rookie Mikey Sainristil, who has followed a development trajectory that partly parallels that of teammate Jayden Daniels. St-Juste is still on the team, but his starting job has gone to Marshon Lattimore whenever the ex-Saint has been healthy, and St-Juste has been supplanted at least twice this season by Michael Davis, who is no great secondary player himself. It appears as though the Commanders will be in a position to start Lattimore and Sainristil, with Noah Igbinoghene playing the nickel slot position, allowing defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr to challenge the Bucs more significantly than he was able to in the first meeting in September.

In this ‘win or go home’ playoff game, it looks like we have two well-matched teams that feature highly productive offenses paired with inconsistent defenses. It should be an exciting Sunday Night Football game.

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First Quarter

Washington kicked off to Tampa Bay, who start the game at the 30-yard line following a touchback.

Mike Evans earned a first down against Marshon Lattimore on the first play of the game, but the defense allowed just 1 yard on the next two plays to bring up 3rd & 9 from the 42-yard line, which Mayfield converted by hitting Mike Evans for 23 yards.

Two plays later, it was 3rd & 7 at the Washington 32 yard line, and an incomplete pass to McMillan deep to the right into triple coverage brought on the field goal team.

Chase McLaughlin drilled the field goal to open the scoring. 3-0 in favor of the home team. The scoring drive covered 36 yards in 8 plays.

The Commanders started their first offensive drive of the game at the 33-yard line following a return by Luke McCaffrey.

Washington opened with a throw-away from Daniels under pressure, followed by a run by Brian Robinson to bring up 3rd & 6. On the money down, Daniels, out of a 2-back set, hit Terry McLaurin for 35 yards down the left sideline to the TB 28-yard line on a throw that hit Terry in-stride under tight coverage.

Two plays later, it was 3rd & 2 following an 8-yard scramble to the right by JD5. On 3rd down at the 20-yard line, Daniels scrambled left for no gain, tackled by Lavonte David a the sideline.

On 4th down, Daniels dirted the ball on a pass play that had no one open, turning the ball over on downs.

Tampa has 80 yards of grass between the line of scrimmage and the goal line with 07:45 remaining in the fist quarter.

TB picked up two first downs on the next three plays to reach the 48-yard line.

The Bucs earned 2 yards on two runs by Bucky Irving to bring up 3rd & 8 at midfield. On 3rd down, Baker Mayfield was under pressure and scrambled for a yard. The Commanders defense had held to force a punt.

Following a fair catch by Jamison Crowder, Washington took the field at the 8-yard line for their second drive with 03:34 left in the first quarter.

After a pair of short pass completions, it was 3rd & 6 at the 12-yard line. Daniels scrambled right through the end zone before finding Zach Ertz for 9 yards and a first down.

A 16-yard completion to Scary Terry moved the chains again.

A run by Brian Robinson followed by a 12-yard gain on a quick screen to Austin Ekeler brought the first quarter to an end with Washington at the TB 45-yard line, 1st & 10.

Second Quarter

Following a first down, Washington earned 7 yards on the next two plays to bring up 3rd & 3 at the 35-yard line. On 3rd down, Jayden Daniels went to the right sideline on a called QB run and got blown up by Zion McCollum, who sent Jayden flying.

Dan Quinn kept his offense on the field on 4th & 1; Daniels handed the ball to Austin Ekeler up the middle for a gain of 2 yards — first down Washington at the Tampa 21-yard line. The drive has lasted 11 plays already.

Two plays later, Washington faced 3d & 3 at the 11-yard line. On the key 3rd down play, Daniels found Zaccheaus on a quick slant on the left side of the field for 6 yards to bring up 1st & goal.

Two well-defended running plays resulted in a loss of 2 yards; on the 17th play of the drive, Daniels, with solid protection, took his time and found Dyami Brown in the middle of the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown. With the PAT, the score was 7-3 with 09:26 left in the half. The scoring play covered 92 yards in 17 plays, taking more than 9 minutes off the clock.

The Buccaneers started just their third offensive drive of the game at the 30-yard line. So far, their two drives have ended in a field goal and a punt, while Washington has one punt and one touchdown.

A penalty on 2nd down for an illegal block pushed the Bucs back 15 yards to force 2nd & 24 at their own 16-yard line. On the subsequent play, a holding call was declined by Washington, bringing up 3rd & 22 at the 18-yard line. A short pass completion wasn’t enough, and the Commanders had forced a 3 & out and the second punt of the game for the Bucs.

Washington’s third offensive drive began a the 30-yard line following a very entertaining 17-yard return.

Two plays later it was 3rd & 3. On the key down, Jayden hit Austin Ekeler out of a 2-back set for a 1st down completion at the line to gain in the middle of the field. It was a nice play.

Daniels scrambled twice to earn another first down at the TB 49-yard line, and then scrambled up the middle for another 5 yard gain. Jayden is Washington’s leading rusher, with 8 carries for 31 yards. Ekeler and Robinson have combined for 7 carries for 27 yards.

On a 3rd & 4 play from the 42-yard line, it appeared as if the Buccaneers had sacked Daniels for a 9-yard loss, but a defensive holding call moved the ball to the 37-yard line with a fresh set of downs.

Under pressure on 2nd down, Jayden threw the ball away, bringing up 3rd & 6 at the Tampa Bay 36-yard line. Daniels dropped back on 3rd down and tried to hit Terry McLaurin at the 2-yard line on the sideline, but outstanding coverage from McCollum saw the pass broken up as Terry tried twice to catch the ball, but couldn’t make it happen.

That play brought the game to the 2-minute warning.

Facing 4th & 6 coming out of the time out, Dan Quinn decided to send Zane Gonzalez out for a 52-yard field goal attempt. The kicker drilled it to open up the lead. Now 10-3 Commanders. The scoring drive covered 37 yards in 11 plays.

The Bucs got the ball at the 26-yard line with 01:46 on the clock hoping to score again before halftime.

Interestingly, Rachaad White was in the game instead of Bucky Irving; he was held to a yard on 1st down, followed by an incomplete pass by Baker Mayfield under pressure. On 3rd & 9, Baker Mayfield scrambled up the middle for an aggressive run that included broken tackles for 18 yards and a first down.

The Bucs earned three more 1st downs with 3 passes (2 to Evans, 1 to Otten), and TB had 1st & 10 at the Washington 12-yard line. This has been a lightning-fast swing in momentum.

With 00:17 on the clock, Tampa Bay has a chance to tie up the game before halftime with one time out in hand.

1st down – Defensive pass interference call on Marshon Lattimore in the end zone vs Mike Evans

1st & goal – Touchdown pass to Evans on a quick slant

With the PAT, the score is all tied up at 10-10. The scoring drive covered 74 yards in 7 plays.

The half came to an end with a kickoff and a kneeldown.

Washington will get the ball to open the second half.

Halftime Stats

Statistics via ESPN

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Third Quarter

At halftime, each team is led in rushing yards by its quarterback. It should be an interesting second half.

Tampa kicked off to Washington, who start the second half at the 30-yard line following a touchback.

After a pass completion and a 1-yard run, Washington faced 3rd & 1. Marcus Mariota came on the field and ran a QB sneak with Daniels lined up at running back, earning the first down.

Two plays later, JD5 scrambled right before finding Dyami Brown downfield for a catch & run of 30 yards. What a play!

The next play went to Dyami Brown on a dump off pass that went for 24 more yards to the TB 3 yard line.

Robinson was stuffed for a 1-yd loss on first down. Daniels threw the ball away on a sprint right on 2nd down. On 3rd & goal from the 4-yard line, Terry McLaurin was tightly covered by Jamel Dean, who broke up the pass play to force a field goal attempt.

Gonzalez hit the 22-yard kick to re-take the lead, 13-10. The scoring drive covered 66 yards in 10 plays.

Tampa Bay started its first possession of the second half at the 28-yard line.

Washington played well on 1st down until a facemask penalty on a reach by Dorance Armstrong. It’s only Washington’s 2nd accepted penalty of the night, but both have been big.

TB gave some of it back with a false start penalty — 2nd & 10 at the TB 44 yard line.

After a Bucky Irving run, it was 3rd & 4 near midfield. On the 3rd down play, Baker found Mike Evans across the middle for a catch and run of 18 yards. Evans is having a big game; he has 6 catches for 84 yards and a TD, plus a big DPI call forced.

Following a first down and then a pre-snap penalty, it was 1st & 15 at Washington’s 18- yard line. Two good runs by Irving gave his team 1st & goal at the 2-yard line. Running the hurry up offense, TB lost 3 yards on a run by Irving on 1st down.

2nd & goal – McMillan caught a pass out of bounds, but a penalty against Washington for defensive holding made it 1st & goal at the 2-yard line.

1st & goal – Mayfield sacked for 2-yard loss.

2nd & goal – Touchdown to Bucky Irving on a pass from Mayfield.

Following the extra point, Tampa Bay led the game 17-13 with 04:31 left in the half. The scoring drive covered 72 yards in 16 plays.

After the kickoff, Washington’s offense took the field at their own 30-yard line.

After a defensive holding call, the Commanders had a fresh first down at the 35-yard line.

After a called QB run for 6 yards on first down, Daniels hit Terry McLaurin for 17-yards at the Tampa Bay 42-yard line on 2nd down. Jamel Dean was shaken up on the play (knee) and went to the medical tent.

On a play action pass on 2nd down, Daniels hit McLaurin for a 26-yard completion, but the gain was wiped out by a penalty for ineligible player downfield. OZ picked up 5 yards on the next play to bring up 3rd & 5. An incomplete pass on the next play with the blitz coming forced a 4th down, and Dan Quinn kept his offense on the field.

On 4th & 6 at the 37-yard line, Daniels hit Zach Ertz for a 14-yard gain in the middle of the field.

The third quarter ended with Washington facing 3rd & 10 at the Tampa Bay 23-yard line. We’ve got a fun game heading into the final quarter!

Fourth Quarter

Daniels opened the final quarter with a 20+ yard pass into the end zone, targeting Dyami Brown. Zion McCollum was called for DPI in the end zone, giving Washington 1s & goal at the 1-yard line.

The Commanders lost 2 yards on 2 plays to bring up 3rd & goal at the 3 yard line. on the money down, Dion Jones broke up a pass, looking like he had a good chance for the interception.

Dan Quinn decided to forgo the field goal, going for the touchdown to take the lead. Instead, he missed a well-covered Zach Ertz, who appeared to be interfered with, to give the ball back to TB with 97 yards of green grass in front of them.

Tampa Bay’s offense took the field with a 4-point lead with about 14 minutes on the clock. The Commanders, who have passed on a pair of field goal attempts and turned the ball over on downs twice in the game, will need the defense to step up.

Two plays later, the defense seems to be doing its job, forcing 3rd & 7 at the 7 yard line. but then allows a pass completion and a reach across the line to gain by Mike Evans to gain 8 yards and a fresh set of downs.

On the next play, the defense came up HUGE, with a takeaway!!!

Baker Mayfield and the running back can’t make the exchange, and Bobby Wagner jumped on a loose ball for the first sudden-change of the game.

It’s 1st & 10 at the Tampa Bay 13-yard line. Washington needs to score a TD here.

Two plays later, Washington faced 3rd & 6 at the 9-yard line. On 3rd down, Daniels hit Austin Ekeler at the 5-yard line. The ball came loose, but the play was dead with forward progress. Having been stopped twice on 4th down in the red zone, Dan Quinn decided that the third time would be the charm. He decided to go for it again!

And…he was right!

Jayden Daniels — stop me if you’ve heard this one before — hit Terry McLaurin for a 5-yard touchdown in the middle of the end zone!! The offensive line gave JD5 the time he needed on the play and Terry ran a very nice route. These two are money in the bank.

Following the PAT, the Commanders led the game again, 20-17. The scoring drive that followed the fumble recovery covered 13 yards in 4 plays.

With 09:46 on the clock, Washington kicked off again. Tampa Bay’s offense started its next drive at the 25-yard line.

Disaster on first down as Baker Mayfield hit McMillan downfield for a 26-yard gain.

Across midfield now, Bucky Irving carried the ball for 6 and then Mayfield was tackled for a short gain to force 3rd & 2. On the third down play, Mayfield found Otten for an easy catch & run that went for 20 yards and a fresh set of downs at Washington’s 21-yard line.

A stop on 2nd & 1 forced the third-down play at the 12-yard line. On 3rd down, Irving was brought down for a loss of 2 yards on a play that looked initially like an offsides penalty against Washington, but which turned out to be a snap on the wrong count by Tampa Bay’s center.

The Bucs kicked the 32-yard field goal to tie the score, 20-20 with 04:41 left on the clock.

Jayden Daniels and the Washington offense would get the ball back with an opportunity to add a playoff 4th-quarter game-winning drive to the resume.

Following the kickoff, the Commanders took the field at the 30-yard line. They can take the lead — and possibly win the game — with a field goal or touchdown if they can burn enough clock before scoring. What they can’t afford to do is to give the ball back to Baker Mayfield and the TB offense with less than a 7-point lead in hand.

After a completed pass and an unsuccessful run by Robinson, Washington faced 3rd & 6 at the 34-yard line.

Jayden Danels, with plenty of time facing a 3-man rush and 2 “spies”, hit Dyami Brown, the team’s leading receiver tonight, for a 21-yard gain!

The final play before the two-minute warning was a run by Austin Ekeler for no gain.

After the timeout, Washington faced 2nd & 10 at the Tampa 45-yard line with two timeouts in hand. This game has been everything promised.

On the subsequent play, Daniels hit Austin Ekeler for a catch & run that went for 18 yards. Tampa used a time out.

Washington has 1st & 10 at the 27-yard line.

Ekeler gained 8 yards running up the middle and the clock kept running. On 2nd & 2 with 59 seconds on the clock, Ekeler ran for another yard.

On 3rd & 2 at the 19 with 55 ticks on the clock, it feels like Washington can ice the game and its first playoff win in 19 years with a first-down conversion followed by a walk-off score.

With the potential play of the game, Kliff Kingsbury called Marcus Mariota’s number again. Last time he was on the field, he’d run a sneak. This time, he tried to draw the defense offsides with a hard count. When it doesn’t work, Quinn burned his 2nd timeout.

When play re-started, Jayden Daniels kept the ball around the right end and dived across the line to gain for a huge first down!!

You could hear the “MVP…MVP…MVP” chants start up among the Commanders fans in the stands.

Daniels took a knee on the left hash mark, Dan Quinn called time out with 7 seconds left on the clock, and Zane Gonzalez came on the field, fussing with his hair before putting on his helmet, facing 2nd & 14 and a 3-yard field goal.

He doinked the ball off the right upright.

BUT THE KICK WAS GOOD!!!

The Commanders are going to Detroit!!

Full Game Stats

Statistics via ESPN

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