Survey results!!
SB Nation’s Reacts surveys include both questions asked here on the Hogs Haven website (and other team sites like it) and those sent to registered participants from all 32 NFL fanbases via email. The email surveys, sent weekly during the regular season, typically ask fans to predict the outcome of every game of the week adjusted for a point spread.
This week, there is a dramatic difference in attitudes towards the Commanders’ chances of beating the opponent, the 3-8 Tennessee Titans.
Asked to pick the winner of the game, Hogs Haven readers were closely divided, with only 53% predicting a Commanders win.
By contrast, NFL fans nationally are much more bullish on the Washington team, with 78% of those surveyed predicting that the burgundy & gold will not only win, but will also cover a 5.5-point spread.
Hogs Haven Pick’em contest
Here at Hogs Haven, we run a weekly Pick’em contest. Interestingly, the entrants in this week’s contest, who are a subset of Hogs Haven readers, are much more in alignment with national sentiment, with over 91% of the 47 entrants picking the Commanders to win outright.
The nervousness of the broader Hogs Haven community, however, is driven by the team’s recent on-field disappointments. The Commanders have lost three straight games. The first two losses came to division-leading teams — the (now) 8-3 Steelers and 9-2 Eagles. However, the most recent loss — a Week 12 defeat at home to the (now) 5-7 Cowboys — was a shock to fans, media, and the players and coaches themselves. Dallas came into the game at Landover with multiple key injuries, led by a backup quarterback, and riding an extended losing streak.
A month ago, when the Commanders were 7-2 and the Titans were 2-6, this week’s home game looked like an all-but-certain win for Washington.
Now, however, questions have arisen about team preparation and execution and coaches’ schemes and play calling.
Suddenly, the Cinderella story that was being written by the Commanders in the 2024 season has taken a dark and somewhat unexpected turn, and the future is suddenly no longer looking clear, bright and sunny, but shrouded in mist and a little bit worrying.
Overall confidence
This is reflected in the overall confidence of fans as seen in the results of the other survey question this week: Do you feel confident in the Commanders direction?
We ask this same question every week. For most of the season, Commanders fans have consistently been among the league’s most confident and optimistic, with losses to the Ravens, Steelers and Eagles barely moving the needle. Confidence had measured between 92% and 99% weekly since the team beat the Giants in Week 2.
This week, however is a different story.
Fan confidence has plummeted sharply, falling to just 57% as measured by our Hogs Haven Reacts survey — the lowest point of the Adam Peters/Dan Quinn era.
It will likely take a somewhat dominant performance against the Titans to reverse this loss of confidence heading into the Week 14 bye week. Following the conclusion of this Week 13 game, the Commanders will either be 8-5 and well-positioned for a playoff seeding, or 7-6, riding a 4-game losing streak, and appearing to be faltering and without answers.
Let’s hope it’ll be the sunshine and unicorns option because I doubt I could live through the 14-day bye week meltdown that would follow an upset loss to Tennessee.
Kickoff is at 1pm Sunday at Northwest Stadium in Landover Maryland.
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