Things don’t get any easier as Washington faces the NFL’s top defense one week after facing the NFL’s top offense in another win-or-go-home game
It’s NFL Conference Championship week and the No. 6 seed Washington Commanders will be facing a No. 2 seed Eagles team on the road at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA this Sunday at 3:00 pm ET. The Eagles started the season a bit lackluster, going 2-2 to start, but have only lost a single game since their Week 5 bye – a loss to the Washington Commanders in Week 16.
We’ve had two previous 5Qs with BGN, in Week 11 and Week 16. The Eagles offense and defense were broken down in detail in the Week 11 article. The short summary is that the defense has excelled through a combination of new talent at critical positions and excellent coaching by new DC Vic Fangio. Since that matchup, DT Jalen Carter was named 2nd Team All-Pro and LB Zack Baun was named 1st Team All-Pro by the Associated Press. The Eagles defense has remained the NFL’s top statistical defense, allowing the fewest total yards, 2nd fewest points, fewest total passing yards, and 10th fewest rushing yards over the course of the regular season.
Although the Eagles offense hasn’t been quite as good as the defense, it has still been good, ranking 8th in total yards and 7th in total points over the regular season. However, that overall productivity masks a big difference in the run and pass game, as the Eagles are ranked 2nd in rushing yards and 29th in passing yards over the regular season. A big part of the rushing game is the ability of QB Jalen Hurts to rush for yards himself, but this may be impacted by a knee injury he sustained in last week’s game against the Rams. Hurts is currently likely to play, but may be limited by his knee.
The Eagles offense had 4 players granted AP All-Pro honors for the 2024 season: RB Saquon Barkley for 1st Team All-Pro and LT Jordan Mailata, RT Lane Johnson, and WR AJ Brown for 2nd Team All-Pro honors.
I asked Brandon Lee Gowton of Bleeding Green Nation five questions to better understand the state of the Eagles and what to look for in this game.
1) What has changed for the Eagles since the last time these two teams played?
Great question! I actually wrote about this topic at length for BGN:
“What’s changed since the Eagles and Commanders last played each other?”
A few things I’ll highlight here:
1. Jalen Hurts’ return. Hurts obviously got knocked out pretty early in the last matchup (more than nine minutes remaining in the first quarter). He’s back now … but he hasn’t exactly been lighting it up as a passer. And now he’s dealing with a knee injury that he suffered during the Eagles’ win over the Los Angeles Rams. That injury might limit his mobility.
2. Dallas Goedert’s return. The Eagles didn’t have their top tight end for Week 16. He previously gave the Commanders some trouble in Week 11 by catching all five of his targets for 61 yards. The Eagles’ struggles to run the ball consistently in the last game were due in part to their backup tight ends being awful run blockers. Goedert is much better in that regard.
3. Jake Elliott is back on kickoff duty. In Week 16, the Commanders’ kickoff returns produced drives that started at the -40, +43, -22, -33, -37, -39, -35, and -43. In other words, Washington’s offense consistently started with good field position. Eagles punter Braden Mann was clearly struggling with kickoffs and he’s since been replaced by Elliott, who used to handle them prior to this season. Elliott is better at getting the ball through the end zone for touchbacks.
Eric Hartline/Imagn Images
2) The Eagles are one of the NFL’s least injured teams, according to several metrics. Based on my memory, they seem to have transitioned from consistently one of the most injured teams to consistently one of the least injured teams several years ago. How did they accomplish this transformation?
Your memory serves you well; the Eagles were indeed one of the most injured teams for a stretch in the late 2010s.
During the 2020 offseason, they made two big medical staff hires from teams that were consistently staying healthier than other teams.
They’ve since continued to really invest in their medical staff.
The Eagles have also really prioritized rest. Every summer, there’s talk about the team running too soft of a training camp since they don’t drill live tackling and their schedule is lighter relative to other teams. With the arrival of old school Vic Fangio, the Eagles actually increased their practice workload/intensity a bit this offseason. But they’re still on the lighter side compared to other teams. And they don’t play starters in the preseason at all.
This approach probably has drawbacks; the Eagles have regularly had some early season issues, especially as it relates to fundamental issues such as tackling. But the trade off seems to be worth it. You can survive some sloppy mistakes early in the season more easily than you can survive your best players suffering season-ending injuries.
I should also mention that getting younger is probably important. The Eagles entered the 2024 season with the sixth-youngest roster, according to PhillyVoice. The Eagles previously relied on too many older players when they were one of the most injured teams.
Lastly, luck is obviously a big factor.
3) How has Howie Roseman gone from one of the poorer-drafting GMs to one of the better-drafting GMs over the last few years? Is there anything you wish he’d do differently (in the draft or more generally as a GM)?
Luck is also a big factor here.
But I also think Roseman doesn’t overthink it like he used to.
Taking Jalen Reagor over Justin Jefferson, for example, was asinine the moment it happened. Jefferson checked every box you could possibly ask him to check. Reagor, meanwhile, had multiple red flags. And yet they went with Reagor because they thought they really needed a vertical threat and not a volume target.
Since then, however, the Eagles don’t really overthink it. BGN’s own Jonny Page put it well following the 2024 NFL Draft:
This Eagles draft class ranked…
– 5th best value based on the consensus board
– 2nd in RAS scores
– 3rd in productionSo basically, the Eagles went after elite athletes who produced at a high level and fell lower than expected.
That plan feels sensible to me… https://t.co/hm25ADRbcP
— Jonny Page (@JonnyPage9) April 28, 2024
Not to say he hasn’t made mistakes (he certainly has) … but I don’t think I really wish there’s anything he’d do differently. He still overthinks things sometimes, such as he did with the Haason Reddick situation. But if the worst thing you can say about him is he occasionally outsmarts himself, you can live with that. Roseman’s had way more hits than misses lately.
4) What offenses and defenses have had success against the Eagles since their bye and how did they do it?
OFFENSES: Well, certainly the Commanders in Week 16 since they had 368 yards and 36 points. Washington was more aggressive than other teams have been in terms of taking downfield shots against the Eagles. The Rams also just had some success in this regard in the Divisional Round. The Eagles’ cornerbacks didn’t even have bad coverage in those situations … but they did lose battles at the catch point. I expect Daniels to take more deep shots this weekend. The Panthers also had a ball-control approach working for them by consistently staying ahead of schedule with runs to set up manageable third downs.
DEFENSES: The Eagles’ passing game just hasn’t been great this season … and especially not lately. And that’s a big reason they ride Saquon Barkley so much. The Commanders did a good job of keeping Barkley in check after Hurts suffered a concussion in Week 16. They were able to really focus on the running back and win their battles in the trenches. It could be similar approach for them this weekend with the Commanders potentially not needing to respect Hurts’ mobility. Still, slowing down Barkley is easier said than done. And it’s not as simple as loading the box because that can leave you vulnerable to him breaking through for long touchdown runs, like did against the Rams. The teams that have been more successful stopping Barkley since the bye have also been more susceptible to allowing more Eagles passing success (such as the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15).
5) Who do you think wins this game and why? Do you have a score prediction?
I have a lot of respect for Jayden Daniels. Barring injury, I think he’s going to be the best quarterback in the NFC East for a long time.
I do think the roster around him still has some holes, though. The Commanders are still at an overall talent deficit compared to the Eagles.
The combination of that much, the Eagles having home field advantage, Saquon Barkley looking pretty unstoppable right now, and Jalen Carter being able to face a Commanders offensive line now missing Sam Cosmi makes me believe the Eagles will win this game.
I know the Commanders won as 9.5-point underdogs in Detroit last weekend. That was super impressive. But I think the Commanders playing a fourth straight road game while the Eagles are playing a fifth straight home game is also a bit tough for Washington. And I think there’s a reason the Eagles are favored by 6.5 points despite Hurts being a bit banged up.
Eagles win in overtime, 34 to 28.
A companion article to this with my answers to Brandon’s questions can be found here.
Thanks again to Brandon Lee Gowton for taking time out of his day to answer our questions about the Eagles.