The Commanders travel to Philly for the NFC championship game in which the winner advances to the Super Bowl
I want to continue the series of game previews that we began a few weeks ago.
Since the start of the ‘24 season, I’ve published a game recap within five minutes of the end of each game. Each of the more recent of these recap articles has started with a “precap”, providing a bit of pre-game context. The rest of the recap article includes a detailed summary of each quarter, along with halftime and full-game team statistics and partial box scores.
Today, this “precap” is being published on Sunday morning, with the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarter summaries to be published as each quarter ends in the late afternoon, with the idea that anyone who is unable to watch or listen to the game live can at least read the quarterly summaries as they are posted to get a sense of how the game is going.
The full recap, with every section included, will be published as usual within minutes of the end of the game.
What follows here, then, is not really an ‘article’, and it likely doesn’t cover anything unfamiliar to you; it’s just the introduction to the full game recap, intended to establish the ‘context’ for the game before kickoff. It will be included in the published recap of today’s game.
Last week, the Commanders buried the top-scoring offense in the NFL in the divisional round playoff in Detroit, with the Jayden Daniels-led offense unaffected by deafening crowd noise or the ‘bigness’ of the moment.
Today, Washington goes to another tough environment, but one with which they are intimately familiar, as the Commanders travel to Philadelphia to face the league’s 2nd-ranked scoring defense and the NFL’s 2024 rushing champion, Saquon Barkley.
Like last week, the Commanders will be relying on their rookie phenom quarterback, Jayden Daniels, who threw 5 touchdown passes and led Washington to score 36-points in a victory over the Eagles just five weeks ago.
While the Eagles are the betting favorites today, that is most probably because NFL fans still haven’t figured out what this team in Washington is all about in 2024.
This is a new team, but not a young team. In fact, the Commanders roster is studded with super bowl champions like LB Bobby Wagner, LG Nick Allegretti, and the guy who caught a key TD pass in Philly’s only super bowl win, TE Zach Ertz. In putting together Washington’s 14-5 roster, GM Adam Peters clearly wanted to have key veteran leaders in every position group. Some, like S Jeremy Chinn, C Tyler Biadasz, RB Austin Ekeler, and QB Marcus Mariota, were added in free agency. Others, like WR Terry McLauri, DT Jonathan Allen, and All Pro punter Tress Way had been here a while and lived through the travails of Washington football over a number of years.
Head coach Dan Quinn never worried for a moment about that history. He focused on building a single high-performance team from the collection of old & new. Last week, Quinn described the “joyful intensity” with which this team now plays winning football.
The Commanders are in the midst of a 7-game winning streak — the longest in the NFL at the moment — that includes victories over the top 3 seeds in NFC playoffs, Detroit, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay. That winning streak and the quality of these three playoff teams bolster team confidence and offer a vision of how 2024 is different from the quarter-century of frustration that preceded it.
In other words, this isn’t the Washington team that fans have known throughout the current century. This team harkens back to the glory years of Redskins football under George Allen and Joe Gibbs when the team won five NFC championship games and three Lombardi trophies.
Some will say that a rookie quarterback has never reached a Super Bowl, and that is true, but one rookie quarterback did win the NFL’s championship game. That rookie was the Washington Redskins own Sammy Baugh, who led the team, fresh off its move from Boston to DC, to a victory over the Chicago Bears in a game played in Chicago in 1937. In that championship game, Baugh passed for 335 yards, setting a record for an NFL playoff game that stood until 2012.
The 2024 Commanders offense is a highly efficient unit. In the regular season, it ranked:
- Second in drive score percentage (50.0)
- Tied for second in first downs per drive (2.2)
- Fourth in points per drive (2.72)
- Fourth in “successful play” percentage (50.9)
- Fifth in touchdowns per drive
- Sixth in time of possession per drive (2:59)
- Sixth in third down percentage (45.6)
Washington will face a Philly defense that is near the top of the league in most defensive measures and which will offer a very different challenge than the aggressive blitzing style employed by the Lions a week ago.
The Eagles are more likely to play 2-deep safeties, and rely on disciplined pass rush from a 4-man DL combined with strong secondary play from a unit that features two rookie DBs, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. The Commanders will find it hard to produce the kind of explosive offensive plays that were successful in Detroit, and will likely have to rely on sustaining long scoring drives.
One advantage that Washington enjoyed five weeks ago was an advantage in starting field position following kickoffs thanks to excellent coverage on kickoffs and outstanding returns when receiving the ball. Look for Philly to attempt to blunt this advantage by kicking the ball into the end zone, minimizing the opportunity for return man Austin Ekeler to break free against the Eagles’ coverage team.
Another feature of the last game between these two teams was an uncharacteristic 5 turnovers gifted to the Eagles by Washington’s offense, including 2 fumbles by Brian Robinson and a pair of interceptions thrown by Jayden Daniels. The Commanders, like the Eagles, are typically very good at protecting the ball (in the past 4 weeks, including two weeks of playoff games, Washington has 2 turnovers and the Eagles 0 turnovers). Protecting the football in today’s game will be critical to earning the win and advancement to the Super Bowl.
The Eagles are likely to lean into their dominant offensive line and the legs of Saquon Barkley when they take the field against Washington’s porous run defense. The Commanders, in two games against the Eagles in the regular season, did a good job at limiting Barkley for about 5 or 6 of the 8 total quarters played, but Saquon scored on runs of 23 yards and 39 yards in the final 5 minutes of the game in Philly, and he rushed for 122 yards and 2 TDs in the first half of the loss to the Commanders in Washington last month. It will be important for the Commanders defense to limit the damage inflicted by Saquon for a full 60 minutes.
Injuries will increase the difficulty level for Washington today. Specifically, with DT Daron Payne out with knee and finger injuries, the team’s run defense is weakened. On first-and-10 runs this year with Payne on the field, the Commanders had a 64.4% success rate on defense, which was about average. Over 97 first-and-10 carries without Payne, that dropped to 51.6%, which was last in the league. On the other side of the ball, Washington lost RG Sam Cosmit to an ACL injury suffered against the Lions last week. This will create an incredible handicap in controlling Philly’s defensive game-wrecker, DT Jalen Carter, who may be the biggest defensive challenge that Philly will throw at Jayden Daniels & Co.
Washington’s run game showed signs of life against the Lions a week ago when Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols combined for 25 carries, 132 yards and 3 touchdowns after having struggled to gain any traction since the Week 14 bye. One key element of the game will be the Commanders’ ability succeed against Philly’s 10th ranked rush defense with their starting right guard out for the balance of the playoffs.
In the Week 16 game, CB Marshon Lattimore struggled in coverage against the Philadelphia receivers, and left the game injured. A week ago against the Lions, he appeared healthy and effective, playing on just one side of the field and holding Lions receivers without a reception on only a single target thrown his way. If he can play at the All Pro level he is capable of, that could put a lot of pressure on the Eagles’ passing attack.
Of course, health is also a concern for Philadelphia. QB Jalen Hurts suffered a knee injury in the divisional round playoff game, and, despite positive reports from this week’s practices, outside observers will be keen to find out if the quarterback has his usual mobility or if he will be limited by the after-affects of the injury. Similarly, center Cam Jergens was listed as questionable on the Philly Friday injury report, and may either miss the game or be less than 100% if he does play. Reports have been more positive about CB Quinyon Mitchell, who was limited on Wednesday, but seems to be at or near full speed for today’s game.
Weather was a factor a week ago when the Eagles played the LA Rams in the falling snow. It appears as if the weather in Philadelphia today will be clear and mostly in the 40s, which should provide good football weather.
This is only the second time ever that these two teams have met in the playoffs, with Washington winning the only meeting (in the wildcard round, Jan 1991) by a score of 20-6.
Commanders fans have waited 33 years since their last NFC conference championship game (and super bowl). In a season of largely unexpected success, a win today to return to the super bowl would be another huge step towards a bright new future.