Survey results!!
National survey
Here at Hogs Haven, we run a weekly confidence poll on the blog. Meanwhile, SB Nation distributes a weekly email poll to registered NFL fans that asks for opinions and game predictions.
When this week’s poll was sent out, the Commanders were 3-point favorites.
As you can see, 87% of fans from across all 32 fan bases picked the Commanders to not only win, but to also cover the 3-point spread.
Bettors must’ve mirrored this opinion because, by the end of the week, the point spread had moved to -6.5.
Hogs Haven Pick’em
Here at Hogs Haven, we run a weekly Pick’em contest. As you can see from the results below, the belief of Commanders fans who entered the contest mirrored the sentiments of those responding to the national poll, even with a point spread (-4.5) that reflected the move towards Washington being more heavily favored.
In the Moneyline Pick’em (just pick the winner), nearly 98% of those entering this week’s contest backed the burgundy & gold on the road in Dallas, while just over 85% of contest entrants went with the Commanders to cover the 4.5-point spread.
Fan Confidence
The confidence shown in the national survey and Hogs Haven contest regarding this Sunday’s matchup with the Cowboys reflects the broader level of confidence that has continued to show up in our Reacts poll all season long.
This week marks the second consecutive week in which confidence has increased by 1% over the prior week’s result, and the 98% confidence level represents the 2nd best result of the season.
There was an early dip in confidence following the opening week loss to the Buccaneers, and a very significant fall in Week 13 after the Commanders lost their 3rd straight game, falling to a wounded and struggling Cowboys team that came to Landover on a 5-game losing streak. Aside from that, confidence has not fallen below 92% all season, and has measured 98% or 99% eight times in 18 weeks.
It seems that Hogs Haven members are on board with Josh Harris, Adam Peters, Dan Quinn, Jayden Daniels and the rest of the roster. Fans seem to be enjoying this season for the surprise it has been to many, and looking forward to sustained success and rising expectations moving forward.
Playoff matchup
You may have heard that Washington has already locked up a spot in the NFC playoffs.
While the NFC playoff seedings won’t be finalized until the completion of Sunday’s full slate of 16 games, the Commanders currently hold the #6 seed and will play the #3 seed, which is currently the LA Rams.
Assuming Washington takes care of business in Dallas on Sunday, the Commanders will be locked into the 6th seed. If the Rams win on Sunday, they will be locked in as the 3-seed, but Rams head coach Sean McVay has said that he plans to rest his QB and other starters, which opens the door to the possibility that his team could lose to the visiting Seahawks.
If that were to happen, then the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could jump into the 3-seed with a home win over the struggling Saints.
What do the national email survey results tell us about the expectations for those to games?
Maybe not enough.
Obviously, fans are expecting Tampa Bay to walk over New Orleans, with 69% of respondents picking the Bucs to cover a 14.5-point spread.
But 75% of fans taking the Rams and 3 points is a bit less definitive.
Unusually, the two games, which are interdependent for seeding purposes, are being played in two different time slots. If Tampa Bay wins its game in the early window as expected, then LA will control its seeding. With a win, the Rams will be #3; with a loss, they will fall to the 4th-seed.
Assuming Washington beats Dallas, then fans, coaches and players will be watching that Rams game closely.
Of course, if Washington does the unthinkable and loses to Dallas while the Packers take care of business against the Bears, then the Commanders would fall to the 7th seed and play the Eagles for the third time in eight weeks.
Sunday afternoon and evening should be good fun.
What is even more fun is the fact that, at this time next week, the Commanders will be traveling to their first playoff game since 2020, when they were known as the Washington Football Team.
So much has happened since then!!
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