A roundup of snaps, position alignments, and key stats
In Week 3 of their rebuild, the Commanders travelled to Cincinnati as 7.5 underdogs and staged a 38-33 upset of the Bengals on Monday Night Football.
Not to be upstaged by Trent Scott’s perfect performance in his receiving debut, rookie QB Jayden Daniels put on a record setting performance of his own. Daniels completed 21/23 passes for 254 yards and 2 TDS, with no interceptions. His 91.3% completion rate set a new NFL record for rookie QBs (min 20 att), breaking Dak Prescott’s previous record of 88.9%, and is also a Washington franchise record for QBs. He also became the first player in NFL history to complete 80% of his passes and rush for 150 yds in a 3 game stretch as well as becoming the first to pass for 250 yds and 2 TDs, run for a TD and complete over 90% of his passes in a game since at least 1950, when all the records started being kept.
In his first three games, Daniels’ performance is already leading the Commanders’ offense to new heights. In last week’s win against the Giants, the Commanders accomplished a fairly unusual feat by scoring on every offensive drive not ending in a kneeldown. Just how rare is difficult to say, due to a scarcity of reporting on drive streaks. In their upset of the Bengals, the Commanders extended the streak to 14 consecutive full drives with a score, and this time they scored touchdowns. Five touchdowns to be precise.
While I can’t quantify how usual that streak is, thanks to Pro Football Reference, I was able to get numbers on consecutive games without punting. With this win, the Commanders have now gone two consecutive games without punting, which is the longest current active streak in the NFL. Since 1939, 55 teams have had streaks of two or more games without punting. Before fans get too excited about setting a league record, the longest streak of games without punting was set by the 1939/40 Rams, who played 15 consecutive games without a punt from October 1939 to November of the following season.
Nevertheless, the Commanders’ active streak of scoring and not punting is still fairly remarkable, particularly so for a team in a rebuilding year with a rookie QB. It is currently the fourth longest streak of games without a punt in franchise history. The franchise record is 5, set twice by Sammy Baugh’s Redskins in 1940 and 1941. The other streak was 4 games long, set by Baugh’s Redskins in 1939. While it seems unlikely that Jayden Daniels’ Commanders will break one of Sammy Baugh’s records this season, they have already accomplished something that the Redskins never did during the glory years under Joe Gibbs.
Now, let’s take a closer look at who did what to support Jayden Daniels’ record setting performance and keep the Commanders’ remarkable streak of offensive efficiency going for a second week in a row.
OFFENSE
In addition to breaking records and setting new benchmarks for the league, Jayden achieved a major first for his own career. His first NFL TD reception was 1 yd completion to 320 lb offensive tackle Trent Scott. That was followed later in the game by his second passing TD on a 27-yard completion to Terry McLaurin. With those scores, Daniels kept pace with Caleb Williams as the only rookie QBs to score passing TDs so far this season. However, Daniels has yet to turn the ball over, while Williams has 4 interceptions and a lost fumble.
Through the first 3 weeks of the NFL season, Daniels ranks 1st in the league in completion percentage (80.3%, min 28 att.), 2nd among QBs in rushing yds (171), 11th in total passing yards (664), 5th in Total Offense (790 yds), 5th in passing YPA (8.7), and is only one of four QBs to start 3 games without throwing an interception. He is also 7th among QBs in Total QBR (67.9) and 2nd in EPA/play (0.379).
He leads the rookie QB class in total passing yards, completion rate, YPA, total TDs, rushing yards, total offense, TD:INT ratio, avoiding turnovers and probably many other statistical categories I can’t be bothered to look up and list.
A week after having the second biggest game of his career, Brian Robinson came crashing down to Earth in Cincinnati, finishing third on the team in rushing yards despite having the most attempts. Robinson had 16 carries for just 33 yds, 1 TD and only 1 first down (down from 15 first downs last week). He also caught 1 pass for 4 yds. It was tough going for Robinson, facing stacked boxes all night. He averaged 2.1 yds per attempt, with 90% of his average gain (1.91 yds) coming after contact.
Austin Ekeler had 2 more rushing yards than Robinson on only 3 attempts before exiting the game with a concussion. On the night he had 3 attempts for 35 yds (11.7 YPA), 1 TD and 1 first down. He also had 2 receptions for 22 yds, picking up 2 first downs.
Jeremy McNichols had his first touch of the season, picking up 1 yd on 1 attempt, he also dished out some big hits as a blocker, like this devastating blitz pickup on Terry McLaurin’s TD reception:
What a blitz pickup by Jeremy McNichols https://t.co/Ms87ngedQk
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) September 24, 2024
A week after saying the WR group is a work in progress, it’s looking like the Commanders might have settled on their top 3.
Terry McLaurin led the WR group with his first 100 yd receiving game and his first TD reception of the season, catching 4 of 6 targets. He was the second most productive WR at 3.45 Yards per Route Run (YRR) at an ADOT of 25.8 yds, and was 2 for 2 on contested catches.
Luke McCaffrey had his biggest receiving outing as a Commander, catch all 3 of his targets for 44 yds (14.7 yds/rec) to lead the team in receiving productivity at 4.0 Y/RR. He was the 7th most productive WR in the league in Week 3 on a per route run basis.
Noah Brown caught 3 of 3 targets for 29 yds and 2 first downs. He is showing signs of becoming the reliable big target the Commanders have needed since Pierre Garcon left town.
Dyami Brown caught both passes thrown to him for 16 yds. More importantly, he doubled his snaps taken lined up at fullback this week. He has taken at least 1 snap at FB in every game this season.
Zach Ertz has proven to be Jayden Daniels’ second most reliable receiver this season, after Austin Ekeler, catching 12 of 13 passing targets to date. Against the Bengals, he caught all 5 of his targets for 38 yds and 2 first downs.
None of the other TEs touched the ball, but they all graded well as pass blockers.
According to PFF: Ertz 77.8, Bates 70.4, Sinnott 69.7.
Bates also graded well as a run blocker (PFF 70.4), but the other two not so much (Sinnott 56.2, Ertz 46.1). Kingsbury is still searching for his solution at FB. He might have to look to the draft in 2025 if no one steps up.
The offensive line remained largely stable for the third game in a row, with Brandon Coleman steadily getting more snaps at LT. He has increased his snaps each week as follows: Wk 1 – 14, Wk 2 – 22, Wk 3 – 29. He was up to 49% of offensive snaps this week. At that rate, next week might be his first official start.
The OL had their best performance of the season in pass protection. Jayden Daniels faced his lowest rate of pressure of the season at 13.3% of dropbacks, according to Pro Football Reference, down from last week’s season high of 26.3%. Conversely, it was the worst performance in run blocking as judged by yards before contact per rushing attempt, with the Commanders’ runners averaging just 1.9 YBC/Att, down from 3.2 YBC/Att last week and 3.3 YBC/Att in Week 1.
The big story last week was offensive line penalties stalling drives in the red zone, forcing the Commanders to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns. After committing 7 penalties last week, this week, the offensive line played penalty free.
The O-Line also had their biggest game receiving of the season, with Trent Scott catching the first target of his career for a 1 yd TD. Afterwards, he staged the best end zone celebration of the season with a spirited performance of the Omega Psi Phi Q Hop:
Do your dance, Trent Scott
: #WASvsCIN on ABC
: Stream on #NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/dmQqSuTcnn— NFL (@NFL) September 24, 2024
DEFENSE
Prior to this game, the Commanders’ defense had just 2 sacks for the season, both by DE Clelin Ferrell. With Ferrell out with an injury, the other DEs stepped up and doubled the season sack total.
There is a perception that the Commanders’ edge rushers are not generating any pressure. That’s not entirely accurate. According to PFF, Dante Fowler rushed Joe Burrow 25 times, generating 4 hurries, 1 QB hit and 0.5 sacks. He generated pressures on 22% of pass rushes against the Bengals, which is just shy of NFL leader Aidan Hutchinson’s season average of 22.7%. The problem is that he is not getting much help.
The next most effective edge rushers on Monday night were Dorance Armstrong and rookie Javontae Jean-Baptiste, who generated pressures on only 8.3% of their rushing attempts. Jean-Baptiste’s sole pressure of the evening was his first NFL sack. Armstrong had the other half of Fowler’s sack and a QB hurry.
Johnny Newton led the DT group in tackling, which is pretty remarkable considering that he got less than half the playing time of the highly paid starters.
In 21 defensive snaps, Newton recorded 2 tackles and 1 assist, while not missing any tackles. In opportunity adjusted terms, he had tackles on 9.5% of defensive snaps. Jon Allen had 1 tackle on 46 defensive snaps and Daron Payne had 1 tackle on 45 snaps, with 2 missed tackles. Both starters had tackles on 2.2% of defensive snaps. The rookie was more than 4 times more productive at generating tackles when he was on the field.
It gets worse if we adjust by cap hit instead of defensive snaps. Newton produced 1.1 tackles per $1 million. Allen and Payne lagged Newton by two decimal places at 0.046 and 0.047 tackles per $1 million. Newton was 24 times more productive than either starter in terms of tackles per dollar, yet people wonder why he was drafted in the second round.
The starters were the most productive IDL at generating pressures. Allen generated 3 pressures and Payne generated with 2, with Phidarian Mathis chipping in 1 as well. Newton failed to record a pressure.
It is common to measure defensive production by counting tackles. However, tackle counts don’t tell us whether a defender made good tackles, stopping the ball carrier short of his objective, or bad tackles, arriving after the runner had done damage. Stops improve on tackle counts by measuring whether a tackle represents a failure for the offense. PFF describes a ‘stop’ as an offensive gain on first down that is kept to less than 40 percent of the line to gain, less than 50 percent of the line to gain on second down and any third- or fourth-down falling short of a conversion or touchdown.
This week, Bobby Wagner led the defense with 8 total tackles, and had 1 missed tackle. Frankie Luvu tied for third on the team with 5 solo tackles and 3 assists, plus 1 missed tackle. But how good were those tackles?
Against the run, Wagner and Luvu each had 1 stop on 19 running downs, for stop rates of 5.3%. Their run stop rates ranked 44th among 58 LBs who played a minimum of 9 snaps in run defense in Week 3. They were not good at stopping the run.
In coverage, Luvu was targeted 6 times, allowing 5 receptions for 50 yds, with a long of 22 and 1 pass breakup and 1 stop. Wagner was targeted 6 times, allowing 6 receptions for 47 yds, with 2 stops.
Here’s something I don’t get. PFF gave Bobby Wagner the highest pass rush grade on the team. He blitzed 4 times and generated 0 pressures. Yet, PFF gives him a pass rush win rate of 50% and a pass rush grade of 74.6. Compare that to Dante Fowler who rushed 25 times, generating 5.5 pressures, but only had a win rate of 26.1% and a similar pass rush grade of 74.3. If the object of rushing the passer is to pressure the QB, their win rates and grades make no sense.
A better metric of pass rush effectiveness is pressure rate (percentage of pass rushes generating pressure). By that metric, Fowler was the most effective pass rusher on the team by a country mile at 22%; Jonathan Allen was next at 9.4%, and Luvu and Wagner were ineffective at rushing the passer at 0%.
This week Joe Whitt did a little experimentation, switching Mike Sainristil from his usual role in the slot to boundary corner, where he got experience covering Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. He allowed 3 receptions on 4 targets for 57 yds and 1 TD. He did have 1 PBU, with a jarring hit to separate the ball from RB Chase Brown. Hopefully he learned something.
Benjamin St Juste only allowed receptions on 4 of 7 targets (57.1%), but gave up 77 yds and 1 TD, with no pass breakups.
Noah Igbinoghene covered the slot in place of Sainristil. He allowed 6 receptions on 9 targets (66.7%) for 44 yds and 1 TD.
Quan Martin took the bulk of reps at free safety. He was joined by Chinn or Butler in two-safety looks. The other two spent more time in the box and covering tight ends and other receivers in the slot.
PFF credits Chinn with single coverage matchups against Chase Brown and Mike Gesicki. He allowed receptions on both targets for a total of 10 yds. The reception by Brown was a stop for -1 yd. The reception by Gesicki went for 11 yds and first down. PFF did not count the 2 pt conversion breakup in which Chinn got away with an apparent pass interference against Tee Higgins.
Butler had two coverage matchups with TE Mike Gesicki, allowing 1 reception for 17 yds and breaking up the other pass attempt. His other matchup was against WR Andrei Iosivas, on which he allowed a 16 yard reception.
Martin did not have any matchups in coverage.
Jeremy Chinn led the safeties with 4 solo tackles, including the stop on Brown, which was the only defensive stop by the safety group. Martin had 2 solo tackles, 4 assists and 1 miss. Percy Butler had 2 solo tackles and 3 assists.
SPECIAL TEAMS
After his 7/7 kicking debut last week, Seibert was relegated to kicking extra points for most of the evening against the Bengals. He maintained his perfect streak, hitting 5/5 extra points and making his only field goal attempt from 42 yards out.
Tress Way’s fall from the limelight has been even more severe. He was a perfect 6/6 holding place kicks for Seibert, but hasn’t had a chance to punt since early in the 4th quarter of the season opener.
Austin Ekeler had a scintillating kick return for 62 yds. Noah Igbinoghene had a respectable return of 25 yards and Olamide Zaccheaus got pinned down for no gain.
There were no fair catches and no punt returns.
Nick Bellore led the coverage units in tackling for the second week in a row will two solo stops.
All Pro Reavo, Bobby Price and Jamin Davis also had tackles. Percy Walker, Mykal Walker and Jeremy McNichols had tackle assists. Reaves and Oz had missed tackles.
There were no punt returns or punt coverage on Monday night. The special teams units also avoided penalties.
Week 2 Poll Quiz Answer
In last week’s poll, WR Noah Brown was the overwhelming favorite to see the largest proportional increase in playing time against the Bengals, with 53% of the vote. He was followed at a distance by DE Jamin Davis (18%), DT Johnny Newton (12%), and CB Noah Igbinoghene (11%). No other player got more than 3% of the vote.
This week 18% of poll respondents were proven right. The player from the list with the largest proportional increase in playing time was DE Jamin Davis, who played 17 defensive snaps in Week 3, after not playing at all in Week 2. Only 3 out of 232 respondents picked the player with the next largest increase in playing time. TE Ben Sinnott saw his offensive snap count double from 13 to 26 snaps. The readers’ top choice, Noah Brown, came in fourth, with a 70% increase in playing time, being just edged out by Johnny Newton at 75%.
The results, were as follows:
- DE Jamin Davis: 15/0, quantum step
- TE Ben Sinnott: 26/13, +100%
- DT Johnny Newton: 21/12, +75%
- WR Noah Brown: 34/20, +70%
- CB Noah Igbinoghene: 52/33, +58%
- LT Brandon Coleman: 29/22, +32%
- DE Javontae Jean-Baptiste: 19/18, +6%
- K Austin Siebert: 13/14, -7%