Snap Counts Plus: Week 8 Commanders vs Bears

Divine providence in Landover

If there had been any doubt remaining about who is the star of the 2024 draft class, it was settled on Sunday night. With 2 seconds remaining, and the Commanders trailing 12-15, Jayden Daniels scrambled for over 12 seconds and then unleashed a 52 yard pass, which was tipped to Noah Brown in the end zone for the win.

With the miraculous completion, Daniels became the first Washington QB to throw for a game winning touchdown on the final play of regulation since at least 1994, when searchable records start on Pro Football Reference.

The last Washington QB to throw a game winner in the final 30 seconds of regulation was Kirk Cousins, who completed a 6 yard TD pass to Jordan Reed to even the score with the Buccaneers on 25 October 2015. Although he didn’t really. It was actually kicker Dustin Hopkins who put the Redskins ahead on the extra point with 28 sec remaining.

With the win, the Commanders’ record improved to 6-2, keeping them in sole possession of the NFC East division lead. This is only the second time this century that Washington has started a season with 6 wins in its first 8 games. The last time was in 2008. The time prior to that was the final year of the 20^th century.

Daniels and Brown were not the only Commanders delivering miracles to lead the team to victory. Let’s take a look at who got playing time and which Commanders contributed to the improbable win against the Bears on Sunday night.

---

Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

OFFENSE

Playing with a rib injury, Daniels led the Commanders to victory, completing 21 of 38 (53%) pass attempts for 326 yds, including the 52 yard Hail Mary to Noah Brown for the game winning TD with time expiring.

Two of Daniels’ passes were dropped. Had the receivers held onto those passes, his completion rate would have just crested 60%. Pro Football Reference credits Daniels with 9 bad throws (26.5%), making this his most inaccurate performance to date (previous high 20% vs CLE).

Daniels also ran 8 times for 52 yds (6.5 YPA) and 2 first downs. Six of the 8 rushing attempts were scrambles. Daniels led the team in rushing success rate at 75%.

Daniels faced a season high 21 pressures, yet only took 2 sacks, thanks in large part to all that scrambling. Not surprisingly, his Pressure to Sack Rate was the lowest of his young career, at just 9.5%, and was the 9^th lowest among starting QBs in Week 8. His average time to throw of 3.48 sec was the longest in Week 8, in part due to holding the ball for over 12 sec prior to the Hail Mary.

Daniels currently ranks 5^th among starting QBs in Total QBR (72.7), 3^rd in total EPA (47.0), 2^nd in EPA/play (0.300), 6^th in success rate (51.1%), and 2^nd in Completion Rate over Expectation (6.7%).

Despite Robinson being named the starter, Austin Ekeler took the most snaps, lining up all over the formation.

Robinson led the team in rushing by virtue of taking the most handoffs. He ran for 65 yards and 3 first downs on 16 attempts (4.1 YPA, 43.8% success rate), averaging 2.6 yards before contact per attempt. He also caught his only target for 11 yards.

Ekeler rushed for 52 yds and 1 first down on just 8 attempts (7.4 YPA, 42.9% success rate). He averaged 5.6 yards before contact per attempt. He also caught 2 of 3 targets for 6 yards. But Ekeler’s biggest contribution to the miracle win was his block on 280 lb DE DeMarcus Walker on the final play, without which the game winning Hail Mary might never have happened:

Jeremy McNichols had 1 rushing attempt for -1 yd.

Terry McLaurin had his biggest game of the season so far, catching 5/8 targets for 125 yds and 5 first downs, with a long of 61 yds and 1 dropped pass. McLaurin was the most productive Commanders’ receiver at 3.57 Yards/Route Run.

Noah Brown caught 3/6 targets for 73 yards, including the game winning TD. He had 1 dropped pass, but I think we’ll give him a Mulligan.

Luke McCaffrey caught 1/2 targets inbounds for 8 yds. On the catch he isn’t credited with, he only managed to get 1 foot inbounds on a pass thrown to the edge of the end zone. Nevertheless, according to the official NFL snaps, his perfect receiving streak was broken, and he now caught 12/13 targets (92.3) this season.

Dyami Brown caught 1 pass for 6 yards. Olamide Zaccheaus ran a short pass in for a 32 yard TD, but the play was called back due to an ineligible man downfield penalty on Sam Cosmi.

For the second week in a row, Zach Ertz was the Commanders’ second-leading receiver. He caught 7/11 targets for 77 yds and 6 first downs. He was also second on the team in receiving productivity at 2.03 Yards/Route Run.

John Bates played 2 snaps at RT this week, with Andrew Wylie lining up outside at TE. Bates caught his only target for a 20 yd first down. Bates received an 81.1 run blocking grade from PFF, which led the team, and was the 5^th highest among TEs in Week 8 (min 7 run block snaps).

Ben Sinnott mainly impacted the game as a run blocker, receiving a PFF grade of 75.8, which was the 7^th highest among TEs this week, and his second highest of the season, following his peak grade last week of 76.4.

Following a mistake filled effort last week, Ertz and colleagues cleaned up their act and played penalty-free football against the Bears.

Cornelius Lucas started the game at LT, with Brandon Coleman out with a concussion. Lucas left the game early with an injury and was relieved by backup OT Trent Scott. Michael Deiter took 2 snaps this week. On on, he lined upt at RT, with Wylie moving over to TE. On the other, Deiter lined up to Wylie’s right at TE.

Pass Protection

The OL had their worst showing of the season in pass protection, allowing pressures on 32.7% of dropbacks.

Here are the individual performances:

• LG Nick Allegretti: 2 pressures/49 snaps = 4.1%
• C Tyler Biadasz: 2 pressure/49 snaps = 4.1%
• RG Sam Cosmi: 3 pressures/49 snaps = 6.1%
• RT Andrew Wylie: 3 pressures/47 snaps = 6.4%
• LT Cornelius Lucas: 3 pressures/29 snaps = 10.3%
• OT Trent Scott: 3 pressures/21 snaps = 14.3%
• C Michael Deiter: 1 pressure (sack)/1 snap = 100%

Run Blocking

Pro Football Focus did not like OL’s run blocking nearly as much as last week. The highest graded OL ranked behind all 5 WRs on Sunday:

• LG Nick Allegretti 55.3 (13^th on the team)
• C Tyler Biadasz 53.4 (14^th)
• LT Cornelius Lucas 50.6 (15^th)
• RT Andrew Wylie 48.4 (16^th)
• RG Sam Cosmi 45.9 (17^th)
• LT Trent Scott 45.1 (18^th)

Penalties

The OL continued the sloppy play from last week, drawing flags for 4 penalties :

• Trent Scott: 2x false starts for 10 total yards
• Sam Cosmi: ineligible man downfield, 4 yards, negating a TD pass to Olamide Zaccheaus
• Nick Allegretti: ineligible man downfield, 5 yards

---

Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

DEFENSE

Dorance Armstrong came back from injury and made his presence felt with 3 QB hurries, 1 tackle for a stop, and 1 assist, with 1 missed tackle. He generated pressure on a modest 10.7% of pass rush snaps.

Dante Fowler also generated 3 QB hurries, with 1 tackle assist and 1 missed tackle. He generated pressure on 17.6% of pass rush snaps.

Jalyn Holmes only played 11 snaps, but managed to squeeze in 1 sack, 1 QB hit, and 1 TFL. Holmes was by far the most productive pass rusher on the team, generating pressure on 50% of pass rush snaps.

Clelin Ferrell had 1 QB hit and 1 missed tackle. He generated pressure on 7.1% of pass rush snaps.

Former Commander, Montez Sweat also played on Sunday and registered 3 tackles and 1 assist, 2 TFL, 1 sack and 6 total QB pressures (26% pressure rate). Those numbers put him right up there with Johnny Newton and and Jalyn Holmes in absolute terms. When differences in playing time are taken into account, Holmes was the more productive pass rusher, however.

This season, Sweat has generated 4 sacks and 24 pressures. Those totals are similar to those of Dorance Armstrong (3 sacks, 23 pressures) and Dante Fowler (4.5 sacks, 24 pressures). However, Sweat has had more playing time either of Washington’s 2024 starters. Adjusting for differences in numbers of pass rush attempts by converting to rates reveals that Fowler has been the most productive pass rusher, both in terms of sacks (Fowler 3.21%, Sweat 2.33%, Armstrong 2.07%) and pressures (Fowler 17.1%, Armstrong 15.9%, Sweat 13.9%).

Sweat also costs the Bears much more than his replacements cost the Commanders, at a cap hit of $25.1 million (vs. Dorance Armstrong $5.1 million, Dante Fowler $3.25 million). In terms of millions of dollars per unit of production, the Commanders are getting many times better value from Fowler ($0.72m/sack, $0.13m/pressure) and Armstrong ($1.70m/sack, $0.22m/pressure), than if they had paid to keep Sweat ($6.27m/sack, $1.05m/pressure).

Second round pick Johnny Newton had his much anticipated breakout game against the Bears, registering 1 sack, 1 tackle for loss (2 defensive stops), and a critical goal line fumble recovery to keep the game within Commanders’ reach in the fourth quarter.

For the first time, Newton led the team in pressuring the QB. How many pressures he generated depends on which stats service you ask, but they all agree that Newton led the team. According to PFF, which grades pressures the most liberally, Newton had 7 total pressures (1 sack, 3 QB hits, 3 hurries), and a pressure rate of 39% of pass rush snaps. According to Pro Football Reference, which scores pressures conservatively, he generated 3 QB knockdowns and 1 sack, and a total pressure rate of 22%. Either way, he was a problem for Caleb Williams.

Daron Payne also registered 1 sack, along with 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, and 1 TFL. He generated pressure on just 3.45% of pass rush snaps, down from last week’s season high of 27.3%.

Phidarian Mathis played fewer than half as many snaps as Payne, but made his presence felt with 1 tackle for a stop and 1 QB hurry (pressure rate 9%).

Sheldon Day generated 1 QB hurry in just 7 pass rush snaps (pressure rate 14%).

Bobby Wagner led the Commanders in generating defensive stops (4) and was second on the team in pressuring the QB, with 3 hurries and 1 QB hit on 4 blitzes (pressure rate 100%) per PFF. According to Pro Football Reference, he generated 2 pressures on 4 blitzes (pressure rate 50%), which is still impressive.

Wagner also made 5 solo tackles and 2 assists, while allowing 0 completions on 3 passing targets.

Frankie Luvu arrived violently, with 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, and 2 total defensive stops. He blitzed 11 times, generating 3 QB hurries (27% pressure rate). He was targeted once in the passing game, allowing 1 reception for 3 yds.

Benjamin St-Juste tied with Frankie Luvu for the third most tackles on the team, with 4 tackles, 2 assists and 2 defensive stops. In coverage, he was targeted 5 times (13.9% target rate) and allowed 4 completions for 32 yards. He held receivers in his coverage to 0.89 Yds/Coverage Snap, which is not bad. However, he did have help from Caleb Williams, who had a 54.5% bad throw rate against the Commanders.

Mike Sainristil was targeted more frequently than St-Juste (7 tgts/35 coverage snaps = 20% target rate), allowed fewer receptions (3, 42.9% rec rate) but more than twice the yardage (65 yds). As a result, receivers in his coverage were more than twice as efficient as St-Juste, at 1.86 Yds/Cov Snap. Sainristil made 3 tackles and 2 assists, with 1 defensive stop.

Noah Igbinoghene had a lockdown performance, with just 3 targets in 33 coverage snaps (9% target rate) and no receptions. (PFF charges him with 1 rec for 17 yds). Needless to say, receivers in his coverage were blanked at 0 Yds/Cov Snap. Iggy made 1 tackle and 1 assist.

St-Juste drew the Commanders’ only penalty on defense when he was flagged for pass interference to give the Bears a first down at the Washington 1 yd line, with 34 seconds remaining. Some might argue that it was a poor call by the zebras. Fortunately, Benjamin’s prayers were answered when Noah delivered the Commanders from the ensuing flood, just 25 seconds later. Actually, it was Jayden Daniels who performed the Hail Mary to bring that about, but I digress.

St-Juste has been penalized 3 times this season, for a total of 32 yards.

Quan Martin was the Commander’s leading tackler, with 9 tackles, 2 assists, 1 TFL and 2 stops. He was targeted twice in coverage and allowed 1 reception for 14 yds.

Jeremy Chinn made 2 tackles for stops and 2 assists. He was targeted twice in coverage and allowed 1 reception for 17 yds.

Percy Butler made 2 tackles and 1 assist. He was not targeted in coverage.

---

Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

SPECIAL TEAMS

Austin Seibert accounted for four of the Commanders’ five scores, kicking field goals of 27, 30, 28 and 47 yards, with his first miss of the season from 51 yards. So far this season he is 23/25 on field goals and 19/19 on extra points and leads the NFL in scoring at 88 pts (12.6/game). OK, maybe that’s not quite as special as it sounds. 26 of the 30 highest scoring players are kickers.

Tress Way got the most game action he has seen all season, punting 5 times for 214 yds and 203 net yards (40.6 net yds/punt). He landed one at the Chicago 4 yard line and another inside the 20 yard line. He has punted 17 times this season. Thirty one punters have kicked the ball more times than Tress this season.

Olamide Zaccheaus returned 2 punts for 29 yds and made 4 fair catches. Thanks to Jeremy McNichols recovering his fumble, he has not turned the ball over or muffed a catch this season. His season average of 15.9 is tied for fourth highest in the league with Rashid Shaheed, who has muffed a catch.

Austin Ekeler returned 1 kickoff for 24 yds. Jeremy McNichols returned 1 for 23, and had that clutch recovery of OZs fumble. Ekeler’s average return of 31.2 yards is the 5^th highest in the league (min 5 returns).

Percy Butler was the Commanders’ leading tackler on special teams, with 2 solo efforts.

Mike Sainristil, Quan Martin and Nick Bellore made 1 tackle apiece. With that effort, Bellore retained his title as the league leader, with 9 tackles in special teams coverage and 3 assists. Jeremy Reaves, Jeremy McNichols and Tyler Owens each had assists.

Jordan Magee kicked off his Commanders’ career with a missed tackle on special teams. Tyler Owens, Michael Davis and Jeremy McNichols also had misses.

There were no penalties on special teams, aside from an intentional delay of game, for the third week in a row.

---

Week 7 Poll Quiz Answer

Last week’s poll asked which of a select group of Commanders would have the biggest game against the Panthers. The previous week, Johnny Newton won the voting, but fizzled in the game, so it didn’t occur to me to include him in the options.

LB Frankie Luvu won the poll with 33% of the vote. QB Marcus Mariota finished second with 21% of the vote, most likely because readers doubted that Jayden Daniels would start. Luke McCaffrey came in third, with 13% of voters expecting his breakout will come any game now.; while QB Jayden Daniels and CB Mike Sainristil tied in fourth place with just 10% of the vote. Remember how long ago last Thursday was?

Noah Brown, who was on the receiving end of the Miracle at Northwest, also wasn’t included.

Several Commanders made plays and contributions that were pivotal to the outcome, including Johnny Newton, Terry McLaurin, Jeremy McNichols, Noah Brown and Austin Seibert. But I feel confident in saying that 10% of poll respondents got the answer right by betting on Jayden Daniels to return from injury and deliver another star performance.

---