All studs edition
A week after Jayden Daniels carried the Commanders to a last second victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the team pulled together to produce a stunning upset of the #1 seed Lions, on the road in Detroit. Rather than a nail biter, this week’s game was a decisive 45-31 victory, fueled by a resurgent running game and 5 takeaways by the defense, in addition to the stellar play of the PWFA Rookie of the Year at quarterback.
The real key to the Commanders’ signature win was something that doesn’t show up on the stat sheet: belief. This is a team of young men who believe in each other, and their ability to get the win, no matter the game situation or the opponent. That is a credit to head coach Dan Quinn’s leadership to establish a winning culture.
For the past five weeks, that has been manifest in clutch performances leading to victory on the final play of each game. Against the Lions, a whole team effort produced a signature win, with key performances from every position group.
The most exciting thing for long suffering Washington fans, and younger fans who have never seen their team get this far, is that the Commanders seem to be peaking at just the right time. Can the momentum carry them past the Philadelphia Eagles and into the Super Bowl? It’s a good question now, but would have seemed insane just a few weeks ago.
But before we get ahead of ourselves, lets have a look at who got playing time and which players stepped up to deliver the Commanders’ first Divisional Round playoff win since the 1991 Super Bowl season.
Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
OFFENSE
Daniels played his best game as a pro against the #1 seed Lions, in ways that go beyond statistics. The numbers were exceptional, too.
Daniels completed 22 of 31 passes (71%) for 299 yds and 2 TDs with no turnovers or sacks. He completed five passes for 20 or more yards, with two completions over 35 yds to Dyami Brown and a 58 yd TD pass to Terry McLaurin. (The long pass to Terry was actually thrown 2 yds behind the LOS, with Terry picking up 60 YAC.) Daniels tied with Jared Goff and Matt Stafford for the most explosive passing plays in the Divisional Round. In other words, he threw more than any QB who remains in the playoffs.
According to Pro Football Focus, Daniels was pressured on 36% of dropbacks. Like a cold blooded assassin, he completed 77.8% of passes under pressure, compared to 68.2% from clean pockets. He was blitzed on 17 dropbacks and completed 80% of passes, compared to a 62.5% completion rate when not blitzed. PFF and Pro Football Reference agree that Daniels made no bad/turnover-worthy throws, and none of his passes were dropped.
In addition to the stellar passing performance, Daniels also rushed 16 times for 51 yds (3.2 Y/A) and 4 first downs. It was his second-weakest rushing performance of the season (min 6 attempts), as judged by success rate and his third-weakest as judged by Y/A. Not that anyone cared.
Daniels collected the second penalty of his pro career – 5 yds for delay of game.
Marcus Mariota played one snap in a botched 4th and 1 conversion attempt which lost 1 yard to end the Commanders’ first offensive possession on downs. Things got better after that.
Brian Robinson bounced back from a miserable couple of games with a strong performance against the Lions. He rushed 15 times for 77 yds (5.1 Y/A), 2 first downs and 2 TDs. His 73.3% rushing success rate was the second-highest of any player in the divisional round (min 5 att) after Kareem Hunt (87.5%, 8 att). He was not targeted as a receiver.
A critical difference from Robinson’s worst game of the season (1.6 Y/A) in the Wild Card round is that he had room to run against the Lions. In Detroit, all of Robinson’s yardage was gained before contact, so his rushing average of 5.1 Y/A was equal to his Yardage Before Contact/Attempt (YBC/att). In the previous game, 1.4 of his 1.6 Y/A were gained after contact.
There has been some debate over the past few weeks about Robinson’s rushing performance as he hit a slump toward the end of the season. Robinson has had an up an down season as a rusher. As his performance in the two playoff games illustrates, a key factor has been the blocking from his offensive line. In games when the OL has opened running lanes, he has put up good rushing averages and in games when they haven’t, he has struggled to get past the line of scrimmage. Across the season as a whole, there is a 0.775 correlation between his YBC/att and his Y/A. YBC/att, which is indicative of the OL’s run blocking performance, accounts for 60.1% of the variance in Robinson’s rushing average from game to game. This season, he has been as good as the run blocking ahead of him.
Austin Ekeler was the Commanders’ third-leading rusher, after Robinson and Daniels, with 6 attempts for 47 yds and 1 first down (50% success rate). He led the team in rushing average at 7.8 Y/A. Ekeler also benefitted from improved run blocking, allowing him to gain 5.3 YBC/att, up from just 1.9 YBC/att against the Bucs.
Ekeler was the Commanders’ third-leading receiver, catching 4/4 targets for 41 yds (ADOT -3.3 yds), with all of his yardage coming after the catch (13.5 YAC/rec). Ekeler broke 1 tackle on a reception.
Jeremy McNichols rushed 4 times for 8 yds and 1 TD (25% success rate).
Dyami Brown has 187 post-season receiving yards, which leads all active players. Terry McLaurin is in second place, with 176 receiving yds. The next closest receiver is Buffalo’s Khalil Shakir at just 128 yds. Statistical sticklers might point out that fourth placed Travis Kelce has a higher per game average at 117 yds. That’s why they don’t get invited to parties.
Brown led Commanders’ receivers in Detroit, catching 6/8 targets for 98 yds and 3 first downs, at an ADOT of 12.3 yds. Brown was also the team’s most productive receiver, at an elite 3.5 Y/RR. He gained an average of 5.2 YAC/rec. The two passes he did not catch were contested targets.
Terry McLaurin came second with 4/6 receptions for 87 yds, 4 first downs and 1 TD. He tied with Ekeler as the Commanders’ second most productive receiver at 2.56 Y/RR. 81 of Terry’s 87 receiving yards were gained after the catch, with 60 of those on his TD reception. He broke 1 tackle on the same play.
Jamison Crowder caught 2/2 targets for 25 yds.
The TEs have not been putting up big numbers this season, but they have made catches when it counts.
In Detroit, Zach Ertz caught 5/5 targets for 28 yds and 1 TD. John Bates caught 1 of 2 passes thrown his way for a 20 yd gain.
The Commanders’ OL bounced back from a rough game against the Bucs with one of their strongest performances of the season, despite injury to a key starter. Sam Cosmi suffered a torn ACL and was replaced by Trent Scott who more than held his own at RG.
Pass Protection
The pass blocking by the OL was much improved compared to the Wild Card game as measured by pressures allowed:
LT Brandon Coleman: 1 QB hit, 1 hurry, pressure rate 5.41% (down from 13.6% last week)
LG Nick Allegretti: 1 QB hit, 1 hurry, pressure rate 5.41%
C Tyler Biadasz: 1 hurry, pressure rate 2.70%
RG Trent Scott: 0 pressures/19 pass block snaps
RG Sam Cosmi: 0 pressures/18 pass block snaps
RT Andrew Wylie: 2 hurries, pressure rate 5.41%
Run Blocking
The Commanders’ running backs averaged 3.64 YBC/att, indicative of strong run blocking.
Penalties
Tyler Biadasz was penalized 5 yds for a false start.
Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
DEFENSE
Keeping with the recurring theme, the entire defensive line bounced back from a weak performance against the Bucs with a strong performance in the Divisional Round. Each of the DEs got a taste.
Dorance Armstrong led the way with 2 sacks, including a strip sack forcing a turnover, 2 tackles for loss and 1 more solo tackle. While his total pressure rate of 8% might be a little low, each of his pressures were high impact.
Dante Fowler made 2 solo tackles with 1 assist and 1 TFL along with 1 missed tackle. In the pass rush, he generated 1 QB hit and 2 hurries for a total pressure rate of 12%. Fowler was penalized 15 yards for a bogus face mask infraction.
Clelin Ferrell had one of his better games of the season, posting 1 solo tackle, 1 pass deflection, and 2 QB hurries (pressure rate 12.5%).
Javontae Jean-Baptiste made 1 tackle and 1 assist, with 1 missed tackle. He generated 1 QB hurry in 14 pass rush snaps (pressure rate 7.1%).
Jalyn Holmes generated 2 hurries in 14 pass rush snaps (pressure rate 14.3%).
Jonathan Allen came through with his best game since early in the season, posting 1 tackle for a defensive stop, 2 QB hits and 5 hurries. He led the team in total pressures (7) and pressure rate (29.2%). That is an extremely high pressure rate for an interior defensive lineman.
Daron Payne generated 2 QB hurries and 1 QB hit for a respectable total pressure rate of 11.5%.
Johnny Newton had 2 hurries (pressure rate 16.7%); and Sheldon Day had a QB hit (pressure rate 7.7%).
Frankie Luvu has had an up and down last couple of weeks, and chose the right time to have a big game on the ground. Luvu was the team’s second-leading tackler, with 5 tackles and 4 assists resulting in 2 defensive stops. He also missed 2 tackles. He generated 2 QB hurries in 17 pass rush snaps (pressure rate 11.8%). Luvu recovered the fumble from Armstrong’s strip sack to set up a long scoring drive at the end of the first quarter.
According to PFF, Luvu was targeted 5 times in coverage, giving up 5 receptions for 64 yards to Amon-Ra St. Brown (2 rec, 33 yds), Jahmyr Gibbs (1 rec, 3 yds), Sam LaPorta (1 rec, 6 yds) and WR Tim Patrick (1 rec, 22 yds). That’s a tough day at the office for most linebackers.
Bobby Wagner contributed 2 tackles and 6 assists, with 1 missed tackle. According to PFF, Wagner was targeted 7 times in coverage, giving up 4 receptions (57.1%) for 46 yds. His receiver matchups were: Amon-Ra St. Brown (2/3 rec, 47 yds), Jahmyr Gibbs (3/4 rec, 46 yds), Tim Patrick (0/1 rec). PFF gave him a 77.1 passer rating in coverage; Pro Football Reference had him at 94.3. Suggestions that he was a liability in coverage at the LB position seem unwarranted.
Mykal Walker saw the field for just 3 defensive snaps, yet managed 1 tackle and 1 assist. He was targeted once in coverage allowing 1 reception for 7 yds to Amon-Ra St. Brown. That’s an action packed 3 snaps.
Mike Sainristil had a headline performance in pass defense, featuring 2 interceptions with 22 return yards, and 2 pass breakups. He was targeted 5 times in coverage and allowed 2 receptions (40% rec) for 40 yds to WR Khalif Raymond (1/1 rec, 13 yds) and WR Jameson Williams (1/3 rec, 19 yds). Sainristil was highly effective in coverage, allowing just 0.89 receiving yards/coverage snap. Sainristil also made 4 tackles with 1 assist and 1 missed tackle.
Marshon Lattimore bounced back from a rough outing in Tampa with a lockdown performance against the Lions. In 41 coverage snaps, Lattimore allowed just 1 target to WR Tim Patrick and 0 receptions. He also made 4 tackles and 1 assist, with 1 TFL. He was the most effective Commander in coverage with 0 receiving yards.
Noah Igbinoghene made 3 tackles and 1 assist, with 1 TFL. He was targeted 7 times in coverage, allowing 4 receptions (57.1%) for 70 yds. He was the leakiest CB in coverage at 1.63 receiving yards/coverage snap. Igbinoghene was called for defensive holding, but the penalty was declined.
Benjamin St-Juste stayed off the stats sheet, which is probably a good thing.
Jeremy Chinn was the Commanders’ leading tackler with 7 tackles, 5 assists and 2 defensive stops. In pass defense, he made the game-sealing interception and a pass breakup. In coverage, he was targeted 5 times, allowing 4 receptions for 65 yds by Amon-Ra St. Brown (31 yds), Jahmyr Gibbs (9 yds), and Sam LaPorta (25 yds).
Quan Martin scored his first career pick-six on a 40 yd interception return. He also had 1 pass breakup and allowed completions on just 2/4 targets for 38yds. Martin made 2 tackles with 1 assist and 1 defensive stop.
Percy Butler had 2 tackle assists. He was targeted twice in coverage, giving up 2 receptions for 14 yds and 1 TD to Jahmyr Gibbs (1 rec, 12 yds) and Sam LaPorta (1 rec, 2 yds, TD).
Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images
Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images
SPECIAL TEAMS
Zane Gonzalez was a perfect 6/6 on extra points. He made 1 field goal from 47 yds and missed one from 44 yds with 2:31 remaining in the fourth quarter. Fortunately, the miss was of no consequence, since the Commanders were leading by 2 TDs.
Tress Way punted once for 48 yds and no return. The punt was downed at the Detroit 9 yard line by special teams ace, Colson Yankoff.
Zach Ertz had 1 kick return attempt for 0 yds.
There were no punt returns by the Commanders.
Nick Bellore led the Commanders with 2 tackles in coverage. Bellore leads the NFL in special teams tackles this season with 16 (regular + post season). He tied for the regular season lead with the Saints’ J.T. Gray at 14 tackles. Jeremy Reaves is in third place, with 12 tackles; and Tyler Owens is in a 7-way tie for 5th place with 10 tackles.
Mykal Walker and Percy Butler each made 1 tackle and 1 assist. Colson Yankoff had 1 missed tackle. Butler and Jeremy Chinn tied with 6 others for the 12th most teams coverage tackles at 9 apiece.
Mike Sainristil made his fourth special teams tackle of the season.
In addition to downing Tress Way’s only punt, Colson Yankoff missed 1 tackle.
There were no penalties on special teams.
Wild Card Round Poll Results
Last week I asked readers how many wins the Commanders would end the season with. Only 39% of respondents whiffed by predicting a loss to the Lions, resulting in a season total of 13 wins. The remaining 61% of poll respondents correctly predicted the Divisional Round upset, resulting in win totals of 14 or more games.
Of the potentially correct answers, the most popular choice was 16 wins. A full 39% of poll respondents predicted that the Commanders will run the table and win the Super Bowl.
Fifteen percent of respondents predicted that Commanders’ win streak would end in the Championship Round and 6% predicted that the Commanders would finish the season as Super Bowl losers.