Dan Quinn’s Commanders suffer their first back to back losses
The banged up Commanders travelled to Philadelphia for their second game in four days and came up short against the division-leading Philadelphia Eagles. The Commanders led the game through three quarters, before giving up three rushing TDs in the fourth quarter.
Through 11 games, the Commanders have established that they can defeat losing teams and play tough against good teams. But they have yet to show that they can beat a real championship contender. Even so, with 7 wins in the bag, and only 2 teams with winning records on the remaining schedule, they have a very good chance of making a playoff appearance just one season after last year’s 4-13 tank.
Some fans have taken the back-to-back losses to division leaders particularly hard. There have been suggestions that the league has figured out Jayden Daniels and Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. Doubts have been raised about Dan Quinn’s coaching and Adam Peters’ first draft class.
But the fact that we are even talking about playoff appearances in Week 12 shows how far the Commanders have come after one offseason under new management. The Commanders have their best chance for a get right game this Sunday, when the 3-7 Dallas Cowboys come to town.
But before moving on to brighter days ahead, let’s take a look at who got playing time, what went wrong and who bucked the trend with strong performances in the Commanders’ 18-26 road loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
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OFFENSE
Jayden Daniels completed 22/32 passes (68.75%) against the Eagles for 191 yds, 1 TD and 1 INT. Ordinarily, that completion rate would indicate a productive afternoon. But not when the Average Depth of Target is a season low 3.8 yds. Daniels only attempted 7 passes (22% of total) over 10 yards. That might have to do with the Eagles’ secondary doing an excellent job of blanketing his primary and secondary receivers.
Daniels faced 11 pressures, according to PFF (3 according to Pro Football Reference), including 3 sacks for 20 yds. Going with the PFF figures, he has faced higher numbers of pressures on 5 occasions and the same number 3 times. He has taken 3 sacks in 4 games and 5 sacks once. The amount of pressures he faced in Philadelphia was not out of the ordinary.
What has been different in the last two games is that his Pressure to Sack Rate of 27.3% (each game) is the highest it has been since the Week 2 match against the Giants. While he hasn’t been facing unusually high numbers of pressures, he has been uncharacteristically poor at evading them.
A major reason for that might be that the Commanders’ last two opponents were good at containing his running ability. Against the Eagles, Daniels ran 7 times for 18 yds (2.57 Y/A), better than his season low of 1.67 Y/A last week, but well below his season average of 5.24 Y/A and his 5.60 Y/A average from Weeks 1 through 9. Daniels had averaged 3.2 rushing first downs per game through Week 9. A key strength of his game has been the ability to turn broken plays into gains. That has largely evaporated in the last two losses. He picked up 1 rushing first down against the Eagles and none against the Steelers.
The good news is that his completion rate under pressure recovered to a healthy 66.7% (4/6) after tanking to a season low of 12.5% (1/8) against the Giants.
The obvious explanation of Daniels’ slump in the last two losses is the rib injury he suffered in Week 7 against the Panthers. A few commentators have shown aggregate stats before and after the injury that seem to back that up. But it doesn’t really hold up at the individual game level. Daniels had good games against the Giants (QBR 96.0) and the Bears (QBR 69.9). It has only been in the last two games that his play has dropped off dramatically (Steelers QBR 36.1; Eagles QBR 22.7 – season low). Also, the issues with his play have been somewhat different in the two losses. Against the Steelers, his passing was poor under pressure. Against the Eagles, he resorted almost exclusively to short passes. The common element is that both opponents contained his running and it seems to have impacted his ability to evade pressure.
It could be the injury flaring up. Defenses could have figured him out. He might be hitting the “rookie wall”. Or he might just have had two bad games against tough defenses. It will be interesting to see how Daniels and the Commanders’ coaching staff responds against the Cowboys’ middling pass defense (17th in passing yards) and putrid run defense (31st in rushing yards).
The Commanders ran the ball 28 times, just three short of the magical number which has guaranteed wins this season. Interestingly, though, while their numbers of rushing attempts has dropped in the last two games (Steelers – 22 Att; Eagles – 28 Att) from the earlier season average (32.6 Att/game), their Rushing Success Rate has remained constant at 44.7% before and after Week 9. Through Week 9, that placed them 4th in the league in rushing success. Perhaps they should lean on the run more while Jayden is working through his issues.
At the individual level, Brian Robinson essentially carried the rushing attack with 16 attempts for 63 yds (3.9 Y/A), 1 TD and 4 first downs. Robinson averaged 1.4 Yards Before Contact/Attempt and 2.6 Yards After contact. Comparing that to the Eagles’ Saquon Barkley averaging 3.3 YBC/attempt and Kenneth Gainwell averaging 6.3 YBC/attempt might seem to suggest that Robinson was not getting much help from his offensive line.
Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols combined for 5 attempts and 12 yds, and averaged just 0.8 YBC/attempt.
Ekeler was the Commanders’ leading receiving, catching 8/9 targets for 89 yds and 3 first downs. He had an Average Depth of Target of -1 yards and picked up 99 total yards after the catch. He dropped the 1 pass that wasn’t a reception.
Brian Robinson caught his only target for a 9 yd gain.
A big reason that Jayden Daniels had to resort to dinks and dunks would seem to be that the Eagles’ CBs shut down his usual deep targets.
Terry McLaurin was limited to just 2 targets, making 1 reception for 10 yds. All three of those figures are season lows, as was his overall productivity of 0.34 Yards/Route Run (Season high 5.16 vs Panthers).
Noah Brown caught 1 of 4 targets for 4 yds, resulting in season low catch rate (25%), receptions, total receiving yds and receiving productivity (0.13 Y/RR).
Olamide Zaccheaus caught 1 of 2 targets for 10 yds, not quite season lows, but still below his season averages of 3.0 targets, 2.0 rec, and 22 receiving yards per game
Dyami Brown was targeted twice, catching 1 pass for 4 yds and dropping the other. None of those stats are particularly notable for Dyami, except for the drops. He has dropped two passes in successive weeks, but none before that. Brown was also flagged 10 yards for holding.
Luke McCaffrey dropped his only target. According to Pro Football Reference, it was the first dropped pass of his pro career. Through Week 6, he was a perfect 11/11. Since then, he has only caught 2 of 6 targets.
Zach Ertz bounced back from a poor performance last week, catching 6/7 targets for 47 yds, 1 TD, and 5 first downs.
John Bates caught 2/3 targets for 17 yds, with 1 dropped pass. Those figures represent season highs in targets, receptions and drops.
In his third game as a full-time starter at LT, Brandon Coleman’s weaknesses were exposed by the Eagles’ edge rushers. The rookie gave up 6 total pressures, including 2 sacks. Those figures represent his highest pressure total and only sacks allowed since taking over for an injured Cornelius Lucas. The entire left side of the line was a weakness in pass protection. Meanwhile, Tyler Biadasz and Sam Cosmi played well. Andrew Wylie also held his own on his return at RT, except when asked to block Jalen Carter from out of position.
Pass Protection
The pressure rates allowed in pass protection are as follows:
- LT Brandon Coleman: 4 hurries, 2 sacks, pressure rate 14.3%
- LG Nick Allegretti: 4 hurries, pressure rate 9.5%
- RT Andrew Wylie: 2 hurries, pressure rate 4.8%
- C Tyler Biadasz: 1 hurry, pressure rate 2.4%
- RG Sam Cosmi: 1 hurry, pressure rate 2.4%
Run Blocking
According to PFF, the run blocking was even worse than last week. Here is how they graded the individual linemen:
- RG Sam Cosmi 65.5
- LT Brandon Coleman 59.2
- C Tyler Biadasz 56.4
- RT Andrew Wylie 48.8
- LG Nick Allegretti 48.3
Penalties
LT Brandon Coleman was flagged for offensive holding. It was the first penalty of his career and was declined.
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DEFENSE
Dante Fowler was coming off his biggest game of the season, last week against the Steelers. In Philadelphia, he lined up predominantly at right DE and OLB, where he was matched up against Eagles’ LT Jordan Mailata (born in Bankstown, Sydney, NSW). In his first game back, after missing five games with an injury, Mailata completed neutralized the Commanders’ leading pass rusher. Against the Eagles, Fowler posted season lows in tackles (0 tackles, 0 assists), pressures (0, tie Week 2 vs Giants) and defensive stops (0, tie Week 4 vs Cardinals).
Clelin Ferrell didn’t do any better against Mailata, with a stat line of 0 tackles and 0 pressures.
On the left side, Dorance Armstrong recorded 3 tackles, 1 assist and 2 total defensive stops, with 2 missed tackles. He generated 3 QB hurries on 25 pass rush snaps (12% pressure rate).
Armstrong was relieved by Jalyn Holmes, who made 1 tackle for a loss and 1 assist.
Efe Obada generated 1 QB hurry on 8 pass rush snaps, but otherwise kept a clean stat sheet.
Daron Payne made 2 tackles and 1 assist, with 1 defensive stop and 2 missed tackles. He generated 2 QB hurries in 25 pass rush snaps (8% pressure rate).
Johnny Newton made 1 tackle for a stop and 3 assists. He generated 2 QB hurries in 19 pass rush snaps (10.5% pressure rate).
Phidarian Mathis made 1 tackle for a stop and 2 assists. He generated 1 QB hurry on 10 pass rush snaps (10% pressure rate).
Sheldon Day made 1 tackle.
Frankie Luvu continued his rampage against the Eagles, recording 6 tackles, 4 assists, 2 TFL and 2 sacks, for a total of 6 defensive stops with no missed tackles. He recorded the 3rd most defensive stops of all NFL defenders in Week 11. He blitzed 8 times, generating 2 sacks and 3 QB hits (pressure rate 62.5%). He was targeted twice in coverage, allowing 2 receptions for 5 yds.
Bobby Wagner made 4 tackles, 4 assists and 3 total stops. He was targeted twice in coverage, allowing 2 receptions for 27 yds.
For the first time this season, Mike Sainristil played the most snaps of Washington’s CBs. He lined up at boundary CB, where he had matchups against A.J. Brown (3 targets), Jahan Dotson (1 target) and DeVonta Smith. Against Brown, he allowed 2 receptions for 31 yds. He broke up both passes against the other wideouts. He held the receivers in his coverage to a receiving productivity of 0.89 yds/coverage snap.
Sainristil also made 3 tackles and 3 assists, for a total of 2 defensive stops. According to PFF, he missed 2 tackles, but not Pro Football Reference. He was also the only Commanders’ defender to commit a penalty, a 5 yard illegal contact infraction.
Slot corner Noah Igbinoghene also edged past Benjamin St-Juste in snap counts this week. He allowed 1 reception on 1 target against each of RB Kenneth Gainwell (6 yds), A.J. Brown (7 yds), TE Dallas Goedert (2 yds) and WR DeVonta Smith (21 yds). It was one of Igbinoghene’s worst days in coverage this season, as he allowed receivers in his coverage to achieve productivity of 1.28 yds/coverage snap. Igbinoghene made 4 tackles for 2 defensive stops, with 2 assists and 1 missed tackle.
St-Juste saw his playing time decrease this week. In 2 matchups against A.J. Brown, he allowed 1 reception for 10 yds. St Juste had his best day in coverage this season, holding his receivers to just 0.38 yds/coverage snap. St-Juste made 6 tackles and 1 assist, with 1 stop.
Michael Davis was not targeted in 9 coverage snaps. He was also not involved in any tackles.
Jeremy Chinn led the Commanders in tackling for the third week in a row, with 10 tackles, 3 assists and 4 defensive stops. He was not used as a blitzer, despite lining up at OLB 8 times. In coverage, he matched up against A.J. Brown (2 tgts), TE Dallas Goedert (2 tgts) and slot receiver DeVonta Smith (1 tgt). He allowed 4 receptions (80% rec rate) for 37 yds and 2 first downs.
Quan Martin made 1 tackle and 5 assists and forced 1 fumble. He blitzed once and generated a QB hit (100% pressure rate). He was targeted once in coverage and allowed an 8 yd reception to Jahan Dotson.
Percy Butler made 1 tackle. He was targeted twice in coverage and allowed a 43 yard reception by Saquon Barkley.
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SPECIAL TEAMS
In his second appearance with the Commanders, K Zane Gonzalez maintained his perfect streak, booting 1 field goal from 45 yards, and connecting on his only extra point attempt.
Tress Way punted 5 times for 221 total yards, with 20 return yds, for an average of 40.2 net yards per punt. He landed 2 of 5 punts inside the Eagles’ 20 yard line.
Austin Ekeler returned 2 kicks for 59 yds (29.5 yds/ret). He fumbled 1 on one return (forced by Jalyx Hunt), but fortunately the ball was recovered by Mykal Walker at the WAS 31 yard line.
Olamide Zaccheaus had a better game than last week, maintaining ball security while returning 2 punts for 7 yds. Over the past two weeks, his season average has dropped from over 16 yds/ret to just 10.9 yds/ret.
When Nick Bellore is out of the lineup, guys with names starting with J tend to make the tackles on special teams. This week, Jordan Magee, Jeremy Chinn and Jeremy Reaves each made single tackles. Reaves also missed a tackle. No Commanders recorded tackle assists in teams coverage. In addition to Reaves, Mykal Walker and Ben Sinnott missed tackles.
For the third week in a row, there were no penalties on special teams.
Week 10 Poll Quiz Answer
The Week 10 poll asked which of a select group of Commanders would have the biggest rebound against the Eagles, after a poor showing against the Steelers. Jayden Daniels was the overwhelming favorite, collecting 41% of the vote. Sadly, Jayden had his worst game as a Commander on Thursday night.
RB Brian Robinson finished second, with 19% of the vote. Rookie WR Luke McCaffrey was the only other Commander to garner over 10% of the votes. A small contingent of devoted fans, myself included, remain confident that sooner or later McCaffrey will have his breakout game.
The correct answer was CB Mike Sainristil, who bounced back from an uncharacteristically poor performance against the Steelers, featuring 3 missed tackles and porous coverage. Against the Eagles, Sainristil had a strong performance in coverage, including 2 pass breakups, along with 2 defensive stops on tackles. Sainristil finished second to last in the poll, with just 2 out of 112 votes (2%).
The second biggest rebound is a tough call between TE Zach Ertz and C Tyler Biadasz. Ertz improved on his pedestrian performance against the Steelers (4/6 receptions, 31 yds, 0 1st downs, 0 TD, 1 drop) by catching a respectable 6/7 receptions (85.7%) for 47 yds, 5 first downs, and 1 TD, with no drops. Ertz received just 4 votes (4%) in the poll.
C Tyler Biadasz allowed just 1 pressure in pass protection against the Eagles a short week after allowing a sack against the Steelers. Biadasz tied with Dorance Armstrong for last place in the poll, with 1 vote apiece.