What the Hell was that?
Sunday’s home loss to the Cowboys featured a string of unfortunate and highly improbable events.
On special teams, the Commanders blocked a field goal and a punt in the same game. According to NFL stats, there have been 15 blocked FGs in 179 games this season, which equates to one blocked FG every 11.9 games or 0.084 blocked FGs per game. Blocked punts are even less common, with just 8 occurrences so far, or 0.045 per game. The probability of both happening in the same game is therefore 0.084*0.045 = 0.004, about equivalent to once every 267 games.
Per @EliasSports, this marks the first time since 1977 that a Washington team blocked a field goal and blocked a punt in a single game.
— Washington Commanders PR (@Wash_PR) November 24, 2024
But that was not all, the Cowboys also returned two kickoffs for touchdowns, including an onside kick. There have been five kickoff return TDs this season, 40% of which occurred in this game. Changes in kickoff rules and season length notwithstanding, over the past decade, there has been an average of 6.5 kickoff return TDs per season. During that period, there were two games featuring two return TDs, which gives an estimated probability of around 2/2608 = 0.0008.
The chance of all four events happening in the same game is therefore around 0.004*0.0008 = 0.000003. We can expect to see the same thing happen about once every 348,179 games (1,280 seasons).
There was also a play with two turnovers as well as three missed field goals and two missed extra points. And perhaps the most improbable event of all was Jayden Daniels throwing two interceptions. People talk about teams finding ways to lose. Well, no one can question the Commanders’ creativity after this game.
It was one for the record books, as well as being one that Commanders fans will like to forget.
Before we wipe that one from the memory banks, let’s have one final look at who got playing time, where they lined up, who made plays, and who didn’t.
Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images
Offense
Jayden Daniels’ overall stat line for the day was 25/38 (65.8%) for 275 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, with 4 sacks for 8 yds on the ground, and 7 rushing attempts for 74 yds (10.6 Y/A), 4 first downs and 1 TD on the ground. His performance earned a respectable Total QBR of 62.3, which ranked 13th in Week 12.
But his production wasn’t distributed equally. His recent slump seemed to continue through the first three quarters. Then he came back to life in the fourth quarter, as the Commanders fought to overcome a deficit. Through the first three quarters Jayden Daniels completed 12/22 passes (54.5%) for 81 yds and 1 INT, and rushed 6 times for 51 yds, 3 first downs and 1 TD. In the fourth quarter, he completed 13/16 passes (81.3%) for 194 yds, 2 TDs and 1 INT, while only running once for 23 yds.
According to PFF, Daniels was pressured 14 times, including the 4 sacks. That was the fourth most pressures he has faced this season. His pressure to sack ratio of 28.6% was his second highest of the season, after the Week 2 Giants game (38.5%).
Daniels completed 78.6% of passes for 240 yds and 2 TDs from clean pockets compared to just 30% for 35 yds and 2 TDs when under pressure.
About those two INTs. The first was on a short pass which hit Brian Robinson in the hands and was tipped to Cowboys DT Chauncey Golston. Robinson was open and positioned between the passer and the defender. It was a good throw into a tight window. The second was on a Hail Mary with time expiring. Concerns that the Commanders rookie phenom has lost his signature ball security would seem to be unwarranted.
Brian Robinson tweaked his injured knee and left the game early, leaving the other RBs to fill in by committee.
Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols each rushed for 22 yards, but McNichols did it in 3 carries, with a long of 13, while Ekeler needed 9 attempts to get as far, with a long of 3.
The failure to generate much rushing offense outside of the QB position is a concern, since the Cowboys’ defense ranked 32nd in the league in rushing yards allowed heading into the game.
The RBs didn’t do much as receivers, either. Robinson caught 1/2 targets for 11 yds; and Ekeler caught 2/3 targets for 2 yds. Robinson dropped the pass that bounced to Chauncey Golston for an INT.
Terry McLaurin had a bounce back game, of sorts, after last week’s 1 rec, 10 yd performance. Against the Cowboys, he caught 5/6 targets for 102 yds and 1 TD. Of course, 84% of that production came on a single 86 yd TD reception in the fourth quarter, on what would have been the pull even score, if Austin Seibert hadn’t missed the point after. McLaurin had 59 yards after the catch, mostly on that one play as well.
Terry currently ranks 4th in the NFL, with 823 receiving yards. He also has the 5th highest catch rate (71%) among WRs with ADOT > 10 yds. That is particularly impressive at an ADOT of 14.4 yds. He has caught 19 of 26 contested targets this season and has the third highest contested catch rate (73.1%) among WRs with a minimum of 50 targets.
Noah Brown was the Commanders’ second leading receiver, catching 6/10 passes, at an ADOT of 10.2 yds (season average 11.6), for 71 yds, 4 first downs. Pro Football Reference credits him with 2 dropped passes. There were suggestions that Brown drops too many passes. His catch rate for the season is 61.5%, which ranks 29th among 69 WRs with ADOT > 10 yds (min 20 targets). His drop rate of 7.7% is the 16th highest among the same group of WRs. He is not the most sure handed receiver, but his drop rate does not really stand out among WRs running comparable route trees.
Dyami Brown caught 2/2 targets for 22 yds, with a long of 20 yds. He also ran once for 14 yds.
Luke McCaffery and Olamide Zaccheaus had identical stat lines of 1/1 for 8 yds.
Zach Ertz caught 6 of 8 targets for 38 yds, 3 first downs and 1 TD. John Bates caught his only target for a 13 yard gain in the fourth quarter, but fumbled and turned the ball over on the play, setting the Cowboys up at the WAS 45 yard line.
LT Brandon Coleman bounced back after the worst game of rookie campaign against the Eagles, completing shutting down the Cowboys’ pass rush on his side. It was the fourth game of his pro career allowing 0 pressures and the first as full time starter. Other Commanders’ OL did not hold up as well.
Pass Protection
Pressure rates allowed in pass protection were as follows:
- RT Andrew Wylie: 2 hurries/22 PB snaps, pressure rate 9.1%
- LG Nick Allegretti: 1 sack, 1 hit, 2 hurries, pressure rate 8.9%
- RG Sam Cosmi: 2 hits, 1 hurry, pressure rate 6.7%
- C Tyler Biadasz: 1 hurry, pressure rate 2.2%
- LT Brandon Coleman: 45 PB snaps, pressure rate 0%
- RT Trent Scott: 23 PB snaps, pressure rate 0%
Run Blocking
The run blocking was mediocre, as judged by PFF Run Block grades:
- C Tyler Biadasz 67.6
- LG Nick Allegretti 62.4
- RT Andrew Wylie 56.6
- LT Brandon Coleman 55.3
- RT Trent Scott 54.9
- RG Sam Cosmi 45.9
Penalties
LT Brandon Coleman was flagged for the second penalty of his pro career, with a 5 yard illegal formation call just before the two minute warning in the fourth quarter.
Photo by Timothy Nwachukwu/Getty Images
DEFENSE
The entire DE group combined for just 2 QB hurries in the pass rush. For the second week in a row, Commanders star pass rusher, Dante Fowler, was effectively neutralized.
Dorance Armstrong made 2 tackles, including 1 TFL. He generated 1 hurry in 24 pass rush snaps.
Dante Fowler made 1 tackle and 2 assists, and generated 1 hurry in 20 pass rush snaps.
Clelin Ferrell also made 1 tackle and 2 assists.
Javonte Jean-Baptiste made 1 tackle and 1 assist.
Daron Payne made 1 TFL, 3 assists and 1 sack.
Johnny Newton also made 1 TFL and 3 assists, and added 1 forced fumble. He committed a 5 yard encroaching penalty on the Cowboys’ opening drive.
Sheldon Day made 1 tackle and 4 assists.
Phidarian Mathis did not record any defensive stats.
While most of the defense took the day off, Frankie Luvu didn’t get the memo. He tied with his fellow LB for the team lead in tackling, with 5 solo tackles, 3 assists, 1 TFL, and a team leading 5 total defensive stops. He also broke up 3 passes. He was targeted 4 times in coverage, allowing 4 receptions for 4 yds.
Bobby Wagner also made 5 tackles, 3 assists and 1 TFL. He blitzed twice and had 1 QB hit. He was targeted twice in coverage, allowing 2 receptions for 25 yds. He also recovered a Rico Dowdle fumble at the end of the first quarter.
Last week’s game against the Eagles was the first time this season that Mike Sainristil got more playing time than Benjamin St-Juste. Against the Cowboys, St-Juste dropped to third man in the CB rotation. One could be tempted to speculate that he is being phased out of the starting lineup. Michael Davis got the most playing time he has seen this season.
Sainristil made 2 tackles and 4 assists, for a total of 2 defensive stops. In coverage, he was targeted 7 times, allowing 4 receptions for 27 yds and 1 TD, with 1 pass breakup. He was the stingiest of the CBs in coverage, allowing just 0.71 yds/coverage snap.
Noah Igbinoghene made 2 tackles and 2 assists. He was targeted 4 times in coverage, allowing 4 receptions for 31 yds. He did intercept a Cooper Rush pass intended for CeeDee Lamb, but Lamb knocked the ball out and the fumble was recovered by Dallas FB Hunter Leupke. Overall, he held receivers in his coverage to just 0.82 yds/coverage snap, which is very good for a slot corner.
St-Juste made 5 tackles, 1 assist, and 2 defensive stops. He was targeted 4 times in coverage, allowing 4 receptions for 61 yds. He gave up an alarming 2.44 yds/coverage snap.
Michael Davis made 1 tackle and 1 assist. He held up well in coverage. He had 1 target in 14 coverage snaps, and broke up the pass intended for Jalen Tolbert.
Jeremy Chinn’s three game streak as the team’s leading tackler finally came to an end. Against Dallas, he made 2 tackles, 1 assist, and 1 defensive stop, while missing 2 tackles. According to Pro Football Reference, in 38 coverage snaps, he was targeted 7 times, allowing 6 receptions for 84 yds and 1 TD. PFF has him at 3 rec/4 tgt for 41 yds and no TD. Both stats services agree that he had 1 PBU.
Quan Martin made 2 tackles and 5 assists with 1 TFL. PFF credits him with allowing 2 receptions in 2 targets for 35 yds and 1 TD. PFR has him at 1 rec/1 tgt for 13 yds and no TD.
Percy Butler made 2 tackles and 1 assist with 1 defensive stop. Everyone agrees that he was not targeted in 6 coverage snaps.
Darrick Forrest saw the field on defense for the first time since Week 7, but did not record any defensive stats.
Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
SPECIAL TEAMS
On his return from injury, Austin “Automatic” Siebert played like a guy who needed another week or two to recover from his hip injury. He missed 2 of 2 extra point attempts, including one to tie the game with 21 seconds remaining. He also missed a 51 yd field goal attempt, and scored from 41 and 51 yds. He was placed on IR this week with a groin injury.
Austin Ekeler returned 3 kickoffs for 101 yds (33.7 Y/PA) with a long of 38.
Olamide Zaccheaus returned 1 punt for 19 yds and made 3 fair catches.
Special teams coverage had a rash of improbable events.
Quan Martin blocked a Brandon Aubrey field goal attempt on the Cowboys first drive.
In the second quarter, Phidarian Mathis blocked a Brian Anger punt, which went for 23 yds.
The kickoff coverage unit allowed two return TDs, late in the fourth quarter. On the kickoff following Zack Ertz’ TD, with 2:49 remaining and Washington trailing 17-20, Dallas KR KaVonte Turpin fumbled the catch and then returned the ball 99 yds for a TD, assisted by Jordan Magee’s missed tackle. Two minutes and 35 seconds later, after Terry McLaurin’s 86 yd TD to bring the score to 26-27, the Commanders attempted an onside kick. Cowboys S Juanyeh Thomas recovered the kick and ran it in for a TD.
Magee did make 1 tackle and 1 assist earlier. Mykal Walker, Nick Bellore, Percy Butler and Quan Martin also made tackles on teams. Jeremy Reaves and Michael Davis had tackle assists.
Week 11 Poll Quiz Answer
Last week I asked readers who would have a get right game when the Commanders hosted the Cowboys in Landover. For some reason, it never even occurred to me to include The Dallas Cowboys as a poll option. That’s a shame, because it was the right answer.
Among the available options, QB Jayden Daniels was the overwhelming favorite choice, with 47% of of the vote. “All of them” was the next most popular option at 18%, trailed by WR Terry McLaurin at 14% and RB Brian Robinson at 12%. No other Commander got more than 10% of the vote.
I could go one of three ways in picking the right answer:
- Terry McLaurin bounced back from a 1 rec/10 yd game against the Eagles with a massive 6 rec/102 yd, 1 TD game against the Cowboys. Of course, 86 of those yds and the TD came on one play.
- That play was a key piece of Jayden Daniels’ fourth quarter comeback, in which he completed 81.3% of passes for 194 yds and 2 TDs and ran for 23 yds. That’s a pretty big rebound.
- LT Brandon Coleman had the best game of his rookie campaign in pass coverage, allowing 0 pressures on 45 pass blocking snaps.
I’m going to say that 64% of poll respondents got this one right. That is only the second time this season that the most popular poll choice was the correct answer.