An upset win for the ages
Christmas came a few days early in Washington this year in the form of a shock 36-33 upset win to end the division rival Philadelphia Eagles’ 10-game winning streak.
The early Christmas surprise opens a new chapter in the story of the Commanders’ dream rebuilding season. Up to Week 15, the sons of Washington had shown they could beat losing teams and play tough against winning teams, but they hadn’t been able to defeat one of the better teams in the league. On Sunday, they tore up that script and put the league on notice.
With their electrifying fourth quarter comeback against the NFC second seed Eagles, the Commanders demonstrated that, no matter what they have done wrong – and on Sunday they did plenty – if the score is close and Jayden Daniels has the ball, they have a chance to win. That, my friends, is what separates great quarterbacks from very good ones.
In Sunday’s win, Jayden Daniels staged his third fourth quarter comeback and his third game-winning drive of the season. The game-winning score was Daniels’ 5th touchdown in the final two minutes of a game this season, and the 4th in the final 35 seconds. Both figures are the most of any QB in the NFL this season. Six QBs have scored three times in the final two minutes.
With the go ahead score against the Eagles, Daniels appears to have become the first NFL player to score four times in the final 35 seconds of games in a season dating at least as far back as 1994, which is the limit of the Pro Football Reference individual play database (although I think it actually only goes back to 1997). Players who have scored three times in the final 35 seconds include Payton Manning and Kirk Cousins.
That is not to say that Daniels beat the Eagles all by himself. He had plenty of help on both sides of the ball. Philadelphia fans might like you to believe that Jalen Hurts’ exit with a concussion in the first quarter and bad calls by the refs were the decisive factors. With the Eagles recording their third-highest score of the season, and Philadelphia penalized 91 yards compared to the Commanders 93, neither of those explanations holds water.
The Commanders overcoming a 5-2 turnover differential to win really came down to refusing to accept defeat and having confidence in their young signal caller to pull off the win, no matter the odds. To pull off the upset, Daniels got help from the usual team leaders, as well as some unlikely players stepping up to make clutch plays. As we bask in the glory of the upset of the season and eat Christmas leftovers, let’s see who got playing time, who made plays, and who didn’t, en route to delivering Jayden Daniels’ third FedEx Air Player of the Week award to go with his 10th NFL/Pepsi Rookie of the Week belt buckle.
Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images
OFFENSE
In the rematch with the Eagles, Daniels completed 24/39 passes (61.6%) for 258 yds, 5 TDs, and 13 first downs, with 2 interceptions and 1 sack for 3 yds. Daniels also led the Commanders in rushing with 9 runs for 81 yds (9 Y/A) and 4 first downs. Despite throwing 2 picks, Daniels led NFL QBs in Week 16 with a 95.8 Total QBR (out of 100).
Daniels’ two turnovers were offset by the 5 TD passes and three explosive passing plays, resulting in completions of 32 yds (Q2 TD completion to Terry McLaurin), 49 yds (Q4 TD to Olamide Zaccheaus), and 51 yds (Q2 deep pass to Dyami Brown).
Daniels also got a lot of help from his teammates. According to Pro Football Reference, Daniels made 8 poor throws, his second-highest number of the season (after 9 against CHI). When he was on target, his receivers made the catches, recording 0 drops for the sixth time this season.
According to Pro Football Reference, Daniels was only pressured on 8.9% of dropbacks, his sixth-lowest figure this season. Pro Football Focus saw it differently, counting 19 total defensive pressures, his third-highest total of the season. According to PFF, the key to Daniels’ low sack count was his ability to evade pressure, as evidenced by his third-lowest Pressure to Sack Ratio (5.3%) of the season.
Despite the 5 TDs, Daniels recorded his third-worst Passing Success Rate in a complete game this season, at just 42.5% (high 65.6% vs Titans). He made up for some of his mistakes in the air with an 88.9% Rushing Success Rate, setting a new personal best. That was actually the third-highest Rushing Success Rate in a game this season by players with minimum of 9 rushing attempts. In second place was Washington’s Chris Rodriguez at 92.3% against Tennessee.
The Commanders really struggled to get anything going on the ground, aside from the QB position, against the Eagles’ 9th ranked rushing defense (by total yds, 8th in Y/A). The main issue was that the RBs had nowhere to run and struggled to even make it out of the backfield.
Brian Robinson led Washington’s running backs with just 24 yds and 2 first downs on 10 carries. He also caught 2/3 passing targets for 17 yds and 1 first down. His production from scrimmage was offset by committing 2 fumbles for turnovers. Robinson averaged just 1.6 yards before contact and did not break any tackles.
Chris Rodriguez rushed 3 times for 5 net yards, with a long of 6. He averaged just 0.7 YBC.
Jeremy McNichols rushed twice for 3 yds, with a long of 5, averaging -0.5 YBC. He caught 4/4 targets for 15 yds.
Olamide Zaccheaus overtook Terry McLaurin as the Commanders’ leading receiver in this game, catching 5/8 targets (62.5%) at an ADOT of 4.6 yds for 70 yds (long 49), 3 first downs, and 2 TDs. Jayden Daniels had a 130.2 passer rating when throwing to him. He averaged 8.4 yards after the catch per reception, which was second on the team. OZ was the Commanders’ most productive receiver on Sunday, averaging an impressive 2.19 Yards/Route Run. He also took Terry’s crown for a game as the contested catch leader, hanging on to 1 of 2 contested throws.
Terry was the Commanders’ second-leading receiver, catching 5/6 targets (83.3%) at an ADOT of 10.2 yds, for 60 yds (long 32), 4 first downs and 1 TD. Jayden had a 147.9 passer rating when targeting him. Terry was the Commanders’ fourth-most productive receiver per unit playing time, averaging 1.46 Y/RR. Terry normally leads the team in contested catches, but this week could not hold onto his only contested target. Nevertheless, he maintained his NFL lead with 21 contested catches for the season, and has the third-highest contested catch rate (70.0%) among receivers with a minimum of 10 contested targets.
Dyami Brown came up big with a 51-yard reception, but also lost a fumble. On the afternoon, he caught 4/5 targets (80%) at an ADOT of 16.2 yds, for 56 yds and 1 first down. He was the Commanders’ third-most productive receiver, not factoring in the turnover, at 1.75 Y/RR.
Jamison Crowder only caught 2/4 targets for 15 yds, but both of the receptions were TDs, including the game-winner.
Luke McCaffrey had the misfortune of being JD5’s target on the 2 interceptions, both of which were bad throws. He ended up catching 1/3 targets for a net of 13 yds. His one reception was a screen pass 2 yards behind the line of scrimmage, on which he picked up 15 Yards After the Catch, to lead the team at 15 YAC/R. He was also the Commanders’ second-most productive receiver at 1.86 Y/RR.
Penalties
Terry McLaurin was called for his first penalty since 2022 on a 5 yd illegal motion infraction on the last play of the first quarter.
Zach Ertz caught 1/2 targets for a 12 yd first down. John Bates was targeted once with no reception. Ben Sinnott barely saw the field on offense and was used as a blocker. For whatever it is worth, PFF graded the tight ends among the team’s worst 6 run blockers (Ertz 58.1, Bates 50.5, Sinnott 39.2).
This week Tyler Biadasz was back from his sudden illness. Cornelius Lucas replaced a banged up Andrew Wylie for 10 snaps.
Biadasz’ return to the lineup does not appear to have boosted the OL’s run blocking performance as much as was hoped, as judged by the lack of production and low YBC by the RBs.
They were a lot better in pass protection.
Pass Protection
According to Pro Football Focus, the OL allowed 17 total pressures, including Jayden Daniels’ lone sack, on 48 pass blocking snaps, distributed as follows:
LT Brandon Coleman (48 PB Snaps): 1 hurry, 1 sack, pressure rate 4.17%
LG Nick Allegretti (48 PB Snaps): 7 hurries, pressure rate 14.6%
C Tyler Biadasz (48 PB Snaps): 3 hurries, pressure rate 6.25%
RG Sam Cosmi (48 PB Snaps): 1 hurry, pressure rate 2.08%
RT Andrew Wylie (42 PB snaps): 3 hurries, pressure rate 7.14%
RT Cornelius Lucas (6 PB snaps): 0 pressures
Run Blocking
See RBs section Yards Before Contact figures. Commanders need more beef on the OL to consistently generate rushing lanes.
Penalties
The OL played penalty-free football against the Eagles.
Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
DEFENSE
Three of the DEs got to the QB, giving Eagles’ backup Kenny Pickett a rude welcome in his first four quarters of football this season.
Clelin Ferrell had arguably the biggest day, with 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 forced fumble, 1 QB hit, and 2 defensive stops (tackles representing failures for the offense). He pressured the QB on 13.3% of pass rush snaps. This was against Pro Football Network’s 7th ranked offensive line (just behind the Commanders in 6th place).
Dante Fowler trailed Ferrell by a hair, with 2 tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack, 1 TFL, 3 total pressures and 2 defensive stops. Fowler pressured the QB on 12.5% of dropbacks.
On a down-for-down basis, however, rotational DE Jalyn Holmes led the Commanders’ defense, with 2 tackles, 1 sack, 1 TFL and 1 QB hit, and 2 total stops on just 16 defensive snaps. He made a play on the ball on 25% of plays when he was on the field, and pressured the QB on 33.3% of pass rush snaps. This was not the first time his production has exceeded his playing time.
Dorance Armstrong recorded 2 tackles and 1 assist, with 1 defensive stop and 1 missed tackle. He generated 1 QB hurry on 23 pass rush snaps (4.3% Pressure Rate).
Javontae Jean-Baptiste made 1 tackle and 2 assists, and generated 1 QB hurry on 6 pass rush attempts (16.7% Pressure Rate).
Johnny Newton had his best day as a Commander, tallying 5 tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack, 3 TFL and 4 defensive stops. In addition to the sack, he also logged a QB hit according to Pro Football Reference and a hurry according to Pro Football Focus. Either way, he pressured the QB on 9.5% of pass rush snaps.
Sheldon Day also made an impact with 2 tackles, 1 assist, 1 pass deflection and 1 QB hit. He pressured Kenny Pickett on 5% of pass rush snaps.
Daron Payne registered 1 tackle for loss and 2 assists. He generated 2 hurries on 30 pass rush snaps, to finish the day with a 6.7% pressure rate. Daron committed his second penalty of the season, a 15 yard face mask infraction in the 3rd quarter.
Carl Davis made 1 tackle and 2 assists.
Frankie Luvu bounced back from a quiet performance, by his standards, against the Saints, with a monster game against the Eagles. He made 3 tackles and 4 assists with 2 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT and 1 pass breakup. He generated 2 QB hurries on 17 blitzes (11.8%). He was targeted twice in coverage, allowing 1 reception for 6 yds.
Bobby Wagner led the Commanders in tackling with 8 tackles and 1 assist for 5 total defensive stops. He had 1 pass breakup and did not allow a reception in 1 passing target. He generated 1 QB hit and 3 hurries in 9 pass rush snaps, resulting in a whopping 44.4% pressure rate.
Jordan Magee was designated a starter, but only played 12 defensive snaps. He logged his first and only tackle of the season on defense.
Mykal Walker played 1 defensive snap and made a tackle. Well done.
The Eagles targeted Marshon Lattimore in coverage 10 times, doubling his previous high mark this season. The last time a team targeted receivers covered by Lattimore more than 5 was Week 8 last season, when the Colts targeted him 13 times.
Against the Eagles, Lattimore allowed 5 receptions (50% rec rate) for 68 yds and 1 TD. He made 3 pass breakups and was flagged for pass interference 3 times for 68 yds. At least one call was total BS. He had a rough day in coverage, averaging 2.39 yds/cov snap. He also made 3 tackles and 1 assist, with 1 defensive stop.
Mike Sainristil made 4 tackles and 3 assists. He was targeted 4 times in coverage, allowing 4 receptions for 42 yards, and an average of 1.08 yds/cov snap.
Noah Igbinoghene had 2 tackle assists. He was targeted twice in coverage, allowing 0 receptions. Iggy was penalized 5 yards for holding in the first quarter.
Benjamin St-Juste filled in for 10 snaps when Lattimore tweaked his hamstring. He was targeted 3 times in coverage, allowing 2 receptions for 23 yards, and an average of 2.87 yds/cov snap. He also made 1 tackle and missed 1 tackle. It was impressive how much bad play he managed to squeeze into just 10 defensive snaps.
Quan Martin made 1 tackle, 3 assists and a forced fumble. He was targeted once in coverage, allowing a 4 yard completion.
Jeremy Chinn made 3 tackles and 3 assists, resulting in 3 defensive stops. He was targeted once in coverage, allowing a 5 yd reception.
Percy Butler only played 11 snaps, but still managed to squeeze in 1 tackle for a stop and 1 assist. He allowed 1 reception for 6 yards on his lone passing target.
Photo by Timothy Nwachukwu/Getty Images
SPECIAL TEAMS
For much of the season, a small core of Luke McCaffrey fans have been waiting for the rookie slot receiver to have his breakout game. Who guessed that it would come as a return specialist? On Sunday, McCaffrey returned 6 kicks for 184 yds, with a long of 47 yds and a 30.7 YPA average, with no fair catches or bobbles.
Jeremy McNichols returned 1 kick for 22 yds.
Jamison Crowder nearly fumbled his lone punt return before exploding upfield for 5 yds. His season average is 5.7 YPA on 3 returns, down from 7.9 YPA last season.
Zane Gonzalez was a perfect 4/4 on extra points and 0/0 on field goals from 0 yards (and any distance, for that matter).
Tyler Ott snapped with good spin and accuracy, but he did miss one tackle in punt coverage.
Tress Way punted like a demon, booting two between the laces for 92 yards, resulting in 1 fair catch, 1 return for no gain, and a net average of 46 yards per punt.
Tyler Owens led the Commanders this week with three tackles on special teams coverage. Nick Bellore, Mykal Walker and Quan Martin each contributed one tackle apiece. Chris Rodriguez and Percy Butler missed tackles, along with Tyler Ott.
The Commanders avoided penalties on special teams this week.
Week 15 Poll Answers
Last week’s poll asked which of a select group of Commanders would have the biggest game against the Eagles. CB Marshon Lattimore was the most popular choice with 38% of the vote. The next most popular choice was “Everyone”, with 24% of the vote. No other option got over 10% of the vote. The next two most popular choices were RB Brian Robinson and “None of them – it’s going to be a rout”, tied at 9%.
Of the available options, Frankie Luvu and Dante Fowler would have been the best choices, trailed at a distance by Dyami Brown, who caught a highlight real worthy 51 yard pass thrown from the Commanders’ end zone. In the polling, Luvu garnered 8% of the vote, while Fowler and Dyami got just 2% apiece.
Of course, it never occurred to me to include Clelin Ferrell or Olamide Zaccheus as poll options, nor Luke McCaffrey as a returner. I feel remiss in hindsight for including Daron Payne at DT instead of Johnny Newton.
I could almost award points for “Everyone”, since players all over the roster contributed to the surprise upset win. But there were also a few Commanders whose games had room for improvement. Hopefully they will bounce back against the Falcons.