The best defense is a good offense
From a lowly start, losing to the Bucs 20-37 in Week 1, Dan Quinn’s Commanders have come together to establish a clear identity as the scrappy underdog that no team should want to meet in the playoffs.
The Commanders opened the season with an over-under of 6.5 wins. They finished the season at 12-5 to clinch the 6th seed in the NFC playoffs. Along the way, they showed an ability to dominate weaker teams and to play close with some of the best teams in the NFL. Ten of their games were decided by one touchdown or less.
As the season wore on, they demonstrated a propensity for clutch play. Five of the team’s twelve victories in the regular season were sealed by fourth quarter comebacks, culminating in game-winning drives. Four of those were led by mature-beyond-his-years rookie QB, Jayden Daniels.
The Commanders made their first post-season appearance since 2020 as 3-point underdogs to the NFC South Division winning Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It should really have come as no surprise that they won on a field goal with the clock expiring. But it might not have felt that way to fans in burgundy and gold watching the game.
In the wild card playoff, the Commanders contained one of the NFL’s most potent offenses (2024 Bucs: 3rd in passing yards, 6th in NY/A; 4th in rushing yards, 3rd in Y/A), holding the Bucs to their 4th lowest passing yardage (183 yds) and their 4th lowest rushing total (101 net yards) of the season. But they didn’t do it by staging an outstanding defensive performance. Rather, they did it by winning the time of possession battle on offense to keep the ball out of Baker Mayfield’s hands.
The Commanders won the time of possession battle by a lopsided 35:26 to 24:34. The Buccaneers’ time of possession was their lowest of the season (previous low 25:10 in the loss to the Chiefs).
Actually, the Commanders’ defense performed well against the Bucs’ rushing attack, holding them to their 3rd lowest rushing average (4.0 Y/A) of the season. But the impact of that performance was amplified by holding Tampa Bay to their 6th lowest number of rushing attempts (25) this season by hanging onto the ball on offense.
Where the clock battle impacted the Bucscaneers’ offense the most was in the passing the game. When Baker Mayfield did get opportunities to throw the ball, he completed passes at his 2nd highest rate of the season (83.3%) and threw for his 3rd highest average yardage per attempt (10.2 Y/A). The problem for the Bucs was that the Commanders’ offense kept the ball out of his hands. Mayfield only attempted 18 passes, his lowest number this season. That is how they held the Buccaneers to just 183 passing yards.
That is not to say there were no standout performances on defense to go with clutch play on offense. As Washington fans have come to expect, Washington’s last second victory was the result of contributions we have come to expect from the team’s stars, as well as some unexpected players stepping up. As we celebrate the Commanders’ first playoff win since 2005, let’s have a look at who got playing time, who stepped up, and which players might need to lift their games in preparation for the divisional round meeting with the Detroit Lions on Saturday night.
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OFFENSE
Jayden Daniels carried the Commanders once again, completing 24/35 attempts (68.6%) at an ADOT of 6.7 yds for 268 yds, 14 first downs and 2 TDs, with just 1 sack for no loss. His 7.7 yd average per passing attempt was just slightly above his season average of 7.4 yds. Daniels was also the Commanders’ leading rusher, running for 36 yds on 13 attempts, which equates to his third-lowest rushing average (2.77 Y/A) of the season.
According to Pro Football Focus, Daniels faced 15 pressures, equivalent to 37.5% of his dropbacks. He did a great job of evading pressures, with a Pressure to Sack Rate of just 6.7%, his 4th lowest figure of the season, and well below his season average of 21.2%. Daniels only scrambled to avoid pressure 3 times. His average time to throw of 2.93 sec was a little below his season average of 2.97 sec.
Daniels’ 80.3 Total QBR was the third-highest among QBs in the wild card round, trailing only Josh Allen (87.8) and Lamar Jackson (84.3).
Marcus Mariota made a brief appearance to carry the ball on a quarterback sneak on 3rd and 1 in the third quarter. He rushed for 2 yards and a first down to finish the game with a 100% rushing success rate.
Austin Ekeler was third on the team in total yards from scrimmage. He had 8 rushing attempts for 27 yds (3.88 Y/A) and 2 first downs and caught 3/4 passing targets for 26 yds and 2 first downs. It was tough going for the running backs against Tampa’s fearsome front 7. Ekeler averaged just 1.9 yds before contact per rushing attempt and gained an average of 1.5 yds after contact per attempt.
Brian Robinson gained just 16 yds on 10 rushing attempts (1.6 Y/A) and no first downs. It was his second game played without a rushing first down this season. Robinson found even less room to run than Ekeler, averaging a measly 0.2 YBC/Att, his second lowest figure of the season. Robinson also caught 4/5 passing targets for 22 yds at an ADOT of -0.6 yds. He was hit behind the line on most of his receptions, as he averaged -1.5 YBC/Rec.
Jeremy McNichols had 1 rushing attempt for 1 yd, with 0 YBC.
Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown tied for the honor of being Washington’s leading receivers with each catching passes for 89 yds and 1 TD. The key difference was that Brown caught 5/5 targets, while McLaurin caught 7/10.
Dyami had his biggest receiving day of the season and the second-biggest day of his career, after the 105 yd, 2 TD outing against Tennessee in 2022. He was the Commanders’ most productive receiver on a down for down basis at an impressive 3.87 Y/RR, and averaged a team-leading 9.0 YAC/Rec. Jayden Daniels had a 158.3 passer rating when throwing to Brown.
McLaurin was the Commanders’ second-most productive receiver at 2.78 Y/RR. Terry tends to get targeted in contested situations and tight windows. Two of the three passes he failed to catch were contested targets. He averaged just 1.6 YAC/Rec, less than half his season average of 3.4 yds.
Zach Ertz caught 2/4 targets for 23 yds and 2 first downs, with 1 dropped pass. Ertz was also penalized 5 yds for a false start.
John Bates was targeted once, but did not make the catch.
The Commanders’ OL had a rough outing against the Buccaneers’ fearsome defensive front.
Pass Protection
Each of the starting linemen except Andrew Wylie gave up pressures at higher rates than their season averages in 44 pass blocking snaps:
LT Brandon Coleman: 4 hurries, 2 QB hits, pressure rate 13.64%
LG Nick Allegretti: 1 hurry, 1 QB hit, pressure rate 4.55%
C Tyler Biadasz: 2 hurries, 1 QB hit, pressure rate 6.82%
RG Sam Cosmi: 2 hurries, pressure rate 4.55%
RT Andrew Wylie: 1 hurry, pressure rate 2.27%
Run Blocking
The Commanders’ OL was overwhelmed by the Bucscaneers on running downs and were unable to open running lanes. The running backs’ YBC figures tell the full story here.
Penalties
Andrew Wylie drew a 5 yard penalty for being ineligible downfield.
Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images
DEFENSE
As a group, the Commanders’ edge rushers had a disappointing day in Tampa.
Dorance Armstrong had 4 tackle assists and gets credit for 0.5 sack, for a shared effort with Bobby Wagner. He generated just 2 pressures on 19 pass rush snaps (10.5% pressure rate). PFF credits him with 3 defensive stops, including the sack. He also committed a 15 yd face mask penalty.
Dante Fowler made 1 tackle. He generated 3 QB hurries on just 13 pass rush snaps (23.1% pressure rate). Fowler was called offside, but the penalty was declined.
Clelin Ferrell made 1 tackle for a stop and 1 assist. Jalyn Holmes made 1 tackle for a loss (stop). Javontae Jean-Baptiste had 1 tackle assist. None of these three generated any pressures.
The DTs were about equally ineffective against the Bucs.
Johnny Newton made 2 tackles with 1 tackle for loss and 1 missed tackle. He generated 1 QB hurry in the pass rush.
Daron Payne had his day cut short by a thumb dislocation. While he was on the field, he made 1 tackle for a stop.
Despite getting the most playing time among the DTs, Jonathan Allen barely made the stat sheet with 1 QB hurry and 1 missed tackle.
Sheldon Day had 1 tackle assist.
Someone had to play defense while the DL was taking the day off, and that guy was 2024 second team All-Pro Bobby Wagner. Wagner led Commanders in tackling with 5 solo tackles and 3 assists. In the pass rush, he generated 1 QB hurry and joined with Dorance Armstrong on the Commanders’ only sack. PFF credits him with a team-high 5 defensive stops. He was targeted once in coverage, allowing a 13 yd reception by RB Rachaad White.
Wagner also recovered a Baker Mayfield fumble at the Buccaneers’ 13 yd line to set up a Commanders’ go-ahead score with 9:46 remaining in the fourth quarter. Interesting fact, offensive possessions within a team’s own 20 yard line are more likely to end in a score by the opponent than the one with the ball. This play is a good illustration of why that is.
Frankie Luvu also showed up with 3 tackles and 1 assist. Luvu generated 3 QB hurries in 10 pass rush snaps (30% pressure rate). He was targeted once in coverage, allowing a 4 yd TD reception by RB Bucky Irving.
Mykal Walker made good use of his 3 defensive snaps, generating 1 tackle and 1 assist. Jordan Magee had a tackle assist on his only defensive snap.
Marshon Lattimore made 4 tackles and 3 assists, with no defensive stops. Lattimore mainly lined up against Bucs’ WR1 Mike Evans and was heavily picked on in coverage. In 20 coverage snaps, he was targeted 6 times, allowing 5 receptions for 66 yds (3.3 yds/coverage snap) and 1 TD. He also drew an 11 yd pass interference penalty.
Mike Sainristil made 1 tackle. In 25 coverage snaps, he was targeted 3 times, allowing 2 receptions for 23 yds (0.92 yds/cov snap).
Noah Igbinoghene made 1 tackle and 1 assist, both for defensive stops. In 23 coverage snaps, he was targeted once, allowing a 1 yd completion (0.04 yds/cov snap). Noah was flagged for a 2.5 yd defensive holding penalty (half the distance to goal line from the WAS 5 yd line).
Benjamin St-Juste took 9 defensive snaps and stayed off the stats sheet, which is generally a good thing where he is concerned.
Jeremy Chinn had a good afternoon against the run, contributing 4 tackles and 4 assists, with 1 defensive stop. He was a targeted 4 times in coverage and gave up 3 completions for 63 yds.
Quan Martin made 2 tackles and 2 assists. He was targeted 3 times in coverage, allowing 2 completions for 64 yds.
Percy Butler made 1 tackle. He was not targeted in 10 coverage snaps.
Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
SPECIAL TEAMS
Zane Gonzalez was a perfect 2/2 on extra points and 3/3 on field goals. He scored on kicks from 52, 22 and 37 yds, including the game-winner with time expiring.
Tress Way was yet again relegated to holding duties. This was the third game of the season with no punts by Washington.
Luke McCaffrey returned 2 kickoffs for 60 yds.
Jamison Crowder had 1 punt return for 17 yds and 1 fair catch.
Special teams aces Mykal Walker, Jeremy Reaves and Jeremy Chinn each made single tackles in coverage. Jordan Magee had 1 tackle assist and 1 missed tackle. Practice squad elevations Chris Moore and Kevon Seymour both missed tackles.
Jeremy Reaves was called offside on a Buccaneers’ field goal, but the penalty was declined.