It’s 5 o’clock somewhere…
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As always, it’s worth noting that I am no more qualified than any other NFL fan to assess players. My role as a writer on Hogs Haven is based primarily on having sufficient time and motivation to post articles daily combined with the ability to spell most of the words correctly.
What follows is basically just a long comment that I am throwing out for your consideration on this fine Monday morning, about 9 days before the start of the new NFL league year and veteran free agency.
The Commanders are likely to announce extensions to a number of players between now and then, so today seemed like a good time to go on record with my thoughts about the 30 men who comprise Washington’s impending free agents.
I’ll make one general comment before I start in on the list of players: I’m surprised how many of these free agents I want to retain.
Before I started the exercise, I thought I’d be in favor of extending one-third or maybe one-half of them. Instead, it seems like I ended up closer to 65% or 80%. I think the reason is that so many of them will fill backup roles on low-cost contracts, so there’s not really a reason to get rid of them. That said, low-cost, short-term players are easily replaced, so, while I may be okay keeping them, usually that means that I am also content for Adam Peters to replace them with different low-cost backups.
Most of these guys (not all) will re-sign, if they do, on low-dollar contracts. Due to the Rule of 51, extensions for players who sign for less than $2m per year will reduce the Effective Salary Cap by a very small amount, if at all. In other words, it will take relatively little cap space to extend 10 or 12 players on this list. Generally speaking, the players likely to demand more expensive contracts are near the top of the list while those closer the end are likely to be available on low-dollar deals.
No. 1 LB Bobby Wagner
At the end of the season, I thought it was inevitable that Dan Quinn and Bobby Wagner would agree to run it back in 2025. Now, I am less certain. I’m not sure whether Wagner’s veteran leadership, which was so integral to the success of Year 1 of the Peters/Quinn era is as valuable in Year 2, or whether the team would be better served by getting younger and faster at the position. This is a bad way to start a list of 30 players, but I’m afraid I’m going to go with In Adam Peters I Trust on this decision.
No. 2 QB Marcus Mariota
Last year, I was deeply disappointed when I learned that the Commanders had signed Mariota to a $6m one-year deal. Well, MM made me a believer with everything he did last season. If he’s willing to return at a price of ~$8m per year, then I’d be thrilled to have him. I think he is the perfect pairing for Jayden Daniels, and I’d be inclined to sign the 32-yr-old Mariota to a 2- or 3-year deal if he’s willing. He may prefer to sign with a team that gives him an opportunity to compete for a starting role, but he may want to stay here and be a part of what Peters and Quinn are building.
No. 3 TE John Bates
Along with Marcus Mariota, Bates is one of the two “must extend” free agents on my list. Bates is a top-notch blocking tight end who has pretty reliable hands for the 25 times per year that he is targeted in the passing game. He is tough. Bates is a key element to the offensive success due to his blocking abilities. He should get a 3- or 4-year extension at market rates.
No. 4 S Jeremy Chinn
Chinn signed on a one-year $4.1m deal last season, obviously hoping to play well and increase his market value after a crash in salaries for NFL safeties last year. I think Chinn did his part, playing good football, and it seemed like the coaches were happy with him. I wouldn’t be unhappy to see the team offer him a 2- or 3-year extension at current market rates for the position.
No. 5 DE Clelin Ferrell
I was unimpressed when the team signed Ferrell to a one-year deal last year. He was apparently nursing an injury all season and never played particularly well. I see no reason why he would be invited to return.
No. 6 P Tress Way
Normally, I’d be saying that a 35-yr-old punter making over $3m per year should be replaced by a younger, cheaper option, but Tress, our longest-tenured player, is a good punter, great holder, locker room leader, and active in the community. I’m going ‘heart’ over ‘head’ here and saying that Tress should be signed to a 3-year extension (with low roster bonus and no guarantees beyond 2025).
No. 7 DE Dante Fowler
Fowler led the team in sacks in 2024; it was only the second time in his 11-year career that he produced double-digit sacks, and only the third time he had more than 6 sacks in a season. He got 8 sacks in a 6-game stretch from Wk 5 to Wk 10, but only 2 in the final 7 regular season games, and he was blanked in the 3 playoff games. I think Fowler will be looking for a big increase from his 2024 contract value of $3.25m, and I’m inclined not to pay it. He was weak against the run, inconsistent late in the season and in the playoffs. Fowler is a situational pass rusher with spotty production. If he and Dan Quinn, who have been together in Atlanta, Dallas and Washington, want to stay together, then the 31-yr-old Fowler should be on a short (say, 2-year) contract that pays him in the neighborhood of $5m or $6m per season. I think he’ll want more.
No. 8 CB Michael Davis
Davis was not very good in 2024 with the Commanders, and he wasn’t very good in 2023 with the Chargers. He accounted for $3.2m in 2024 cap space; I wouldn’t offer him more than $2m to return as a backup CB and special teams player, and wouldn’t be unhappy to see the Commanders let him walk.
No. 9 TE Zach Ertz
Last year, Ertz was looking for a place to extend his career and Washington was looking for reliable veteran leadership in every position group. The marriage between the two was beneficial for both. Ordinarily, I’d be pushing to replace a 35-yr-old TE with almost no YAC with a younger, faster, cheaper option, but I’m not sure where his replacement is coming from this offseason. I’m inclined to run it back with Zach if he’s willing to take another incentive-laden 1- or 2-year contract with no guaranteed money beyond 2025.
No. 10 OT Cornelius Lucas
It seems like every year I say that the time has come to move on from Lucas and every year he returns to the team and plays an important role in the season. This year, I’m changing my tune. The Commanders need to build the OL, and Lucas offers a reliable, inexpensive swing tackle capable of starting and playing a full game when needed. Bring the 34-yr-old back on a 1- to 2-year deal.
No. 11 OL Trent Scott
Scott was one of those guys that I thought was going to simply fade into oblivion as a backup lineman who only got on the field as the 6th guy in the jumbo package and on special teams. Washington is his 4th team, and in every year of his 7-year career, he has started at least one game (and has 24 total starts in his career). He seemed to surprise everyone when he stepped in at RG and played pretty well when Sam Cosmi was lost to an ACL tear. At this point, he’s starting to feel like a slightly younger Cornelius Lucas. He should be extended and brought to camp with the expectation that he’ll be making the ‘25 roster as a backup.
No. 12 C/G Michael Deiter
I was shocked when Deiter was signed last year. I was aghast when his competition was let go one-by-one and the Commanders went into the regular season with Deiter as a key backup. I was miserable when I saw him take the field as an injury replacement last year. I will be gobsmacked and flabbergasted if he returns in 2025. Deiter’s use-by date passed prior to 2024; it’s time for him to retire from the NFL.
No. 13 CB Noah Igbinoghene
I liked this signing last year because the team got a former 1st-round pick for just over $1m for one season. Igbinoghene played well as the team’s slot corner. I’d be pleased to bring him back as part of the Commanders secondary for 2025, but Igbinoghene is likely to understand that he could end up as a backup if the team acquires another top CB and moves Sainristil back to the slot. If Noah wants to come back and compete, I’d welcome the 26-year-old defender back with open arms and a pay raise on a 3-year deal, but I’d also understand if he thought he had a better opportunity to play on a different roster.
Nos. 14 -17 WRs Olamide Zaccheaus, Jamison Crowder, Dyami Brown, Noah Brown
Each of these guys got a contract worth ~$1.2m in 2024 and each in his turn ended up earning his money. I would try to bring back perhaps 2 of these guys.
- My personal preference would be to re-sign Noah Brown. In 11 games last season, he accumulated 453 yards — which is on pace for 700 yards in 17 games. He also was very adept at drawing defensive pass interference calls downfield. At the time he was injured, he led the league in DPI yards ‘earned’ by an offensive receiver. Given his injury in ‘24 and his career-long history of injury, N Brown can probably be re-signed on a pretty economical contract with some production-based bonus upside.
- Of the four, Crowder is the one that I would be most inclined to move on from, in part because OZ offers much of what Jamison does, but OZ is 4 years younger.
- My personal feeling on Dyami Brown is that he has not enjoyed his 4 years in Washington and is ready for a fresh start somewhere else, and he is likely to get a much bigger contract from another team. The trade for Deebo Samuel that was reported this weekend seems to make it less likely that D Brown will return.
In short, I’d really like to see Noah Brown return, and I’d be okay with any of the other three on low-cost contracts. I’d be surprised to see Dyami Brown return without at least testing the market with other teams.
No. 18 CB Benjamin St-Juste
I don’t think St-Juste is a bad backup on a minimum-dollar contract, but he will probably benefit from a fresh start with a new team, and can likely find someone willing to pay him more than he’ll get in Washington. I expect him to move on, though I’d be okay if he was extended on a 1-year deal that paid him ~$2m.
No. 19 LB Nick Bellore
This 36-yr-old special teams ace signed for $1.2m last year and earned his money. If he wants to play another year on a similar deal, I’m good with that.
No. 20 LB Mykal Walker
Walker played 344 special teams snaps. He was drafted by the Falcons under Dan Quinn originally. I’ve got no complaints if Quinn wants to keep him around for special teams on another low-dollar contract.
No. 21 DT Sheldon Day
This 7-year veteran signed a one-year, $1.2m deal with Washington last season, and he played 272 defensive snaps. I thought he provided good value as a backup and would welcome the 31-year-old back on a similar deal in 2025 if he wants to return.
No. 22 DL Jalyn Holmes
29-year-old Holmes reminds me of 31-yr-old Sheldon Day — the 9-year veteran (Holmes) has played with 5 teams. He joined the Commanders mid-season in 2024. He played 265 total defensive snaps between the two teams, with 162 coming in 11 games with Washington. He played well as a backup, accounting for 14 tackles and 2 sacks in his limited snaps in those 11 games. At just over $1m per season, Holmes offers good value and depth on the defensive line.
No. 23 RB Jeremy McNichols
Washington needs to get more out of its running back room. That said, the 30-yr-old McNichols was pretty good when asked to play in 2024, and when you consider that he was on a $1.1m contract, he offered very good value. As the 3rd or 4th RB on the team, I don’t really care if Washington brings back McNichols or pivots to another player. I’m more interested in raising the ceiling on this group than polishing the floor.
Nos. 24 & 25 K Zane Gonzalez and K Austin Seibert
I don’t want to re-hash all the kicker woes of the 2024 season, but Zane Gonzalez ended up being the last man standing. In a two-man competition, I’d bring back Seibert and and say “thank you and goodbye” to ‘Bank shot’ Zane. I suspect that there will be opportunities to improve on Seibert as well. Basically, I’m in favor of finding the best kicker available, and I don’t think that will be Gonzalez.
No. 26 QB Jeff Driskel
Driskel was on the ‘24 roster on a $1.15m one-year contract. He’s essentially an [insert name here] quarterback, so, whether it’s Driskel or someone else makes no real difference to me. I assume that, after a year with the team, he has the advantage of knowing the system. If the 32-yr-old wants to extend his career for another year as the #3 option, that seems fine at the price.
No. 27 WR KJ Osborn
Osborn was a late-season signing last year, and he moved onto the team roster with hardly a ripple, appearing in just one regular season game for 19 offensive snaps and leaving nothing but zeros on the stat sheet. Osborn had three reasonably productive seasons in Minnesota from ‘21-’23, so I’m not sure what happened to derail his career last season. I assume the Commanders front office won’t be bringing him back, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him sign here or with another team for a vet-minimum deal.
No. 28 S Darrick Forrest
If you go back a couple of years, Forrest seemed to have a promising future as a special teams player and quality backup safety. Last year he seemed to be out-played by Percy Butler. I don’t see any reason to bring him back. He appears easily replaceable and may benefit from a fresh start with another team.
No. 29 RB Chris Rodriguez
I confess that I am not one of the many Chris Rodriguez fanboys on Hogs Haven. He’s okay, I guess, but I don’t think he’s any better than 100 other RBs in the NFL. Rodriguez is NOT an unrestricted free agent; he is an ERFA (Exclusive Rights Free Agent) which means that Washington can keep him under contract in ‘25 very cheaply and still control his rights in 2026 as a Restricted Free Agent. As a borderline practice squad running back, the Commanders should tender an offer and bring him back to camp in 2025. It’s effectively risk-free.
No. 30 RG Haggai Chisom Ndubuisi
Ndubuisi is part of the International Player Pathway program. The 25-year-old basically gets a free (17th) spot on the practice squad at little cost and — effective the ‘24 season — can be elevated to the active roster as many as 3 times per season, just like other practice squadders. This is just a little extra depth and another developmental player who costs almost nothing. Bring him back (or replace him with another IPP player).