It’s 5 o’clock somewhere…
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A week before the start of free agency, I gave one thought on each of the Commanders 30 pending free agents.
Now that most of the free agent money and energy has been spent, I thought it might be fun to re-visit my comments and see how my comments aged in two weeks.
No. 1 LB Bobby Wagner
At the end of the season, I thought it was inevitable that Dan Quinn and Bobby Wagner would agree to run it back in 2025. Now, I am less certain. I’m not sure whether Wagner’s veteran leadership, which was so integral to the success of Year 1 of the Peters/Quinn era is as valuable in Year 2, or whether the team would be better served by getting younger and faster at the position. This is a bad way to start a list of 30 players, but I’m afraid I’m going to go with In Adam Peters I Trust on this decision.
The team re-signed Wagner, so my gutless decision to leave it in AP’s hands looks pretty spineless now. I thought he would be back but wavered in my belief as the deadline approached.
No. 2 QB Marcus Mariota
Last year, I was deeply disappointed when I learned that the Commanders had signed Mariota to a $6m one-year deal. Well, MM made me a believer with everything he did last season. If he’s willing to return at a price of ~$8m per year, then I’d be thrilled to have him. I think he is the perfect pairing for Jayden Daniels, and I’d be inclined to sign the 32-yr-old Mariota to a 2- or 3-year deal if he’s willing. He may prefer to sign with a team that gives him an opportunity to compete for a starting role, but he may want to stay here and be a part of what Peters and Quinn are building.
Mariota’s press conference seemed to indicate that my thoughts about his intentions were on target, and I seem to have nailed his contract value.
No. 3 TE John Bates
Along with Marcus Mariota, Bates is one of the two “must extend” free agents on my list. Bates is a top-notch blocking tight end who has pretty reliable hands for the 25 times per year that he is targeted in the passing game. He is tough. Bates is a key element to the offensive success due to his blocking abilities. He should get a 3- or 4-year extension at market rates.
We still don’t have official word on the value of Bates contract, but the early announcement of his extension combined with Zach Ertz’s praise of Bates makes me feel like I was on target with my thoughts here.
No. 4 S Jeremy Chinn
Chinn signed on a one-year $4.1m deal last season, obviously hoping to play well and increase his market value after a crash in salaries for NFL safeties last year. I think Chinn did his part, playing good football, and it seemed like the coaches were happy with him. I wouldn’t be unhappy to see the team offer him a 2- or 3-year extension at current market rates for the position.
I honestly didn’t think the team would bring Chinn back, but again, I was too gutless to say so here. My key point was “current market rates”; I never thought Peters would give Chinn a bunch of money to stay. In the end, AP signed Will Harris for less than half of what the Raiders paid Chinn, which is in line with what I expected. I think this was the right move by AP; we’ll see how it plays out.
No. 5 DE Clelin Ferrell
I was unimpressed when the team signed Ferrell to a one-year deal last year. He was apparently nursing an injury all season and never played particularly well. I see no reason why he would be invited to return.
Until Saturday, this appeared to be on-target since Ferrell was unsigned by any NFL team as we entered the 3rd (slow) wave of free agency. That changed yesterday when the Commanders re-signed Ferrell. I was surprised how disappointed I felt when I heard the news. Hopefully, Ferrell will be fully healthy and impactful in 2025. We need more from him.
No. 6 P Tress Way
Normally, I’d be saying that a 35-yr-old punter making over $3m per year should be replaced by a younger, cheaper option, but Tress, our longest-tenured player, is a good punter, great holder, locker room leader, and active in the community. I’m going ‘heart’ over ‘head’ here and saying that Tress should be signed to a 3-year extension (with low roster bonus and no guarantees beyond 2025).
AP is smarter than I am, and signed Way under a special provision of the CBA that allows Tress to get paid about $2.9m while counting only $1.4m towards the salary cap. The team seems to be as happy to have Tress as I am, and equally concerned about being thrifty with the salary at the punter position.
No. 7 DE Dante Fowler
Fowler led the team in sacks in 2024; it was only the second time in his 11-year career that he produced double-digit sacks, and only the third time he had more than 6 sacks in a season. He got 8 sacks in a 6-game stretch from Wk 5 to Wk 10, but only 2 in the final 7 regular season games, and he was blanked in the 3 playoff games. I think Fowler will be looking for a big increase from his 2024 contract value of $3.25m, and I’m inclined not to pay it. He was weak against the run, inconsistent late in the season and in the playoffs. Fowler is a situational pass rusher with spotty production. If he and Dan Quinn, who have been together in Atlanta, Dallas and Washington, want to stay together, then the 31-yr-old Fowler should be on a short (say, 2-year) contract that pays him in the neighborhood of $5m or $6m per season. I think he’ll want more.
I feel like I nailed this one.
No. 8 CB Michael Davis
Davis was not very good in 2024 with the Commanders, and he wasn’t very good in 2023 with the Chargers. He accounted for $3.2m in 2024 cap space; I wouldn’t offer him more than $2m to return as a backup CB and special teams player, and wouldn’t be unhappy to see the Commanders let him walk.
I wasn’t definitive enough here. We all knew Davis wouldn’t be coming back. Jonathan Jones feels like a solid upgrade over Davis and St-Juste.
No. 9 TE Zach Ertz
Last year, Ertz was looking for a place to extend his career and Washington was looking for reliable veteran leadership in every position group. The marriage between the two was beneficial for both. Ordinarily, I’d be pushing to replace a 35-yr-old TE with almost no YAC with a younger, faster, cheaper option, but I’m not sure where his replacement is coming from this offseason. I’m inclined to run it back with Zach if he’s willing to take another incentive-laden 1- or 2-year contract with no guaranteed money beyond 2025.
Well, Zach’s back, and apparently the team was happy to give him a pay raise plus incentives. I’d say the actual outcome is in line with my expectations, though I probably could have stated my expectations more explicitly.
No. 10 OT Cornelius Lucas
It seems like every year I say that the time has come to move on from Lucas and every year he returns to the team and plays an important role in the season. This year, I’m changing my tune. The Commanders need to build the OL, and Lucas offers a reliable, inexpensive swing tackle capable of starting and playing a full game when needed. Bring the 34-yr-old back on a 1- to 2-year deal.
A swing and a miss by me. If the team doesn’t draft a rookie tackle then I could see a May signing of a depth player here.
No. 11 OL Trent Scott
Scott was one of those guys that I thought was going to simply fade into oblivion as a backup lineman who only got on the field as the 6th guy in the jumbo package and on special teams. Washington is his 4th team, and in every year of his 7-year career, he has started at least one game (and has 24 total starts in his career). He seemed to surprise everyone when he stepped in at RG and played pretty well when Sam Cosmi was lost to an ACL tear. At this point, he’s starting to feel like a slightly younger Cornelius Lucas. He should be extended and brought to camp with the expectation that he’ll be making the ‘25 roster as a backup.
If Lucas was a swing and a miss, this feels like a solid base hit over the second baseman. Only my opinion of Marcus Mariota has undergone more change in the last 12 months than my opinion of Trent Scott.
No. 12 C/G Michael Deiter
I was shocked when Deiter was signed last year. I was aghast when his competition was let go one-by-one and the Commanders went into the regular season with Deiter as a key backup. I was miserable when I saw him take the field as an injury replacement last year. I will be gobsmacked and flabbergasted if he returns in 2025. Deiter’s use-by date passed prior to 2024; it’s time for him to retire from the NFL.
Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!
This is the first time I’ve actively wondered what the hell Adam Peters is thinking.
No. 13 CB Noah Igbinoghene
I liked this signing last year because the team got a former 1st-round pick for just over $1m for one season. Igbinoghene played well as the team’s slot corner. I’d be pleased to bring him back as part of the Commanders secondary for 2025, but Igbinoghene is likely to understand that he could end up as a backup if the team acquires another top CB and moves Sainristil back to the slot. If Noah wants to come back and compete, I’d welcome the 26-year-old defender back with open arms and a pay raise on a 3-year deal, but I’d also understand if he thought he had a better opportunity to play on a different roster.
Honestly, I’m surprised that Igbinoghene had to settle for a 1-year deal. I thought he’d get a multi-year contract, if not in Washington, then with another team. Regardless, I’m pleased to see him back. When I look at the secondary with the addition of Will Harris and Jonathan Jones, I feel like the team is already in a better position than in 2024 and still has an opportunity to add another young DB in the draft.
Nos. 14 -17 WRs Olamide Zaccheaus, Jamison Crowder, Dyami Brown, Noah Brown
Each of these guys got a contract worth ~$1.2m in 2024 and each in his turn ended up earning his money. I would try to bring back perhaps 2 of these guys.
My personal preference would be to re-sign Noah Brown. In 11 games last season, he accumulated 453 yards — which is on pace for 700 yards in 17 games. He also was very adept at drawing defensive pass interference calls downfield. At the time he was injured, he led the league in DPI yards ‘earned’ by an offensive receiver. Given his injury in ‘24 and his career-long history of injury, N Brown can probably be re-signed on a pretty economical contract with some production-based bonus upside.
Of the four, Crowder is the one that I would be most inclined to move on from, in part because OZ offers much of what Jamison does, but OZ is 4 years younger.
My personal feeling on Dyami Brown is that he has not enjoyed his 4 years in Washington and is ready for a fresh start somewhere else, and he is likely to get a much bigger contract from another team. The trade for Deebo Samuel that was reported this weekend seems to make it less likely that D Brown will return.
In short, I’d really like to see Noah Brown return, and I’d be okay with any of the other three on low-cost contracts. I’d be surprised to see Dyami Brown return without at least testing the market with other teams.
I feel like this was a solid triple and maybe a home run. Noah Brown is back; Dyami Brown signed with the Jags; Jamison Crowder is still a free agent, and OZ signed with the Bears.
No. 18 CB Benjamin St-Juste
I don’t think St-Juste is a bad backup on a minimum-dollar contract, but he will probably benefit from a fresh start with a new team, and can likely find someone willing to pay him more than he’ll get in Washington. I expect him to move on, though I’d be okay if he was extended on a 1-year deal that paid him ~$2m.
Yeah, I fudged this too much. No one wanted St-Juste back and he probably needed to go somewhere for a fresh start. The Chargers gave him $2.5m, so had the contract value about right anyway.
No. 19 LB Nick Bellore
This 36-yr-old special teams ace signed for $1.2m last year and earned his money. If he wants to play another year on a similar deal, I’m good with that.
The only real surprise here was that the team made this a 2-year deal.
No. 20 LB Mykal Walker
Walker played 344 special teams snaps. He was drafted by the Falcons under Dan Quinn originally. I’ve got no complaints if Quinn wants to keep him around for special teams on another low-dollar contract.
Walker went to the Cardinals on a $1.8m deal, so, apparently, Dan Quinn was no longer inclined to keep him around for special teams.
No. 21 DT Sheldon Day
This 7-year veteran signed a one-year, $1.2m deal with Washington last season, and he played 272 defensive snaps. I thought he provided good value as a backup and would welcome the 31-year-old back on a similar deal in 2025 if he wants to return.
It looks like the team had the same opinion I did. Day may end up fighting for a roster spot, especially if AP drafts a DT in April, but he’s likely to at least land a spot on the practice squad.
No. 22 DL Jalyn Holmes
29-year-old Holmes reminds me of 31-yr-old Sheldon Day — the 9-year veteran (Holmes) has played with 5 teams. He joined the Commanders mid-season in 2024. He played 265 total defensive snaps between the two teams, with 162 coming in 11 games with Washington. He played well as a backup, accounting for 14 tackles and 2 sacks in his limited snaps in those 11 games. At just over $1m per season, Holmes offers good value and depth on the defensive line.
With the signing of Kinlaw and Goldman, and the possibility of drafting another young player, Holmes could be the odd man out, though I’m surprised to see Viliami Feheko and Norrell Pollard on under contract while Holmes is unsigned. I’m not sure he’s gone just yet.
No. 23 RB Jeremy McNichols
Washington needs to get more out of its running back room. That said, the 30-yr-old McNichols was pretty good when asked to play in 2024, and when you consider that he was on a $1.1m contract, he offered very good value. As the 3rd or 4th RB on the team, I don’t really care if Washington brings back McNichols or pivots to another player. I’m more interested in raising the ceiling on this group than polishing the floor.
McNichols will be back, meaning that the running back room is identical to 2024 and inviting Adam Peters to raise the ceiling here via the draft.
Nos. 24 & 25 K Zane Gonzalez and K Austin Seibert
I don’t want to re-hash all the kicker woes of the 2024 season, but Zane Gonzalez ended up being the last man standing. In a two-man competition, I’d bring back Seibert and and say “thank you and goodbye” to ‘Bank shot’ Zane. I suspect that there will be opportunities to improve on Seibert as well. Basically, I’m in favor of finding the best kicker available, and I don’t think that will be Gonzalez.
This would have been the biggest surprise of the offseason for me if AP hadn’t inexplicably extended Michael Deiter. Color me surprised that Gonzalez is back and Seibert is not.
I fully expect a new young kicker to be signed before training camp.
No. 26 QB Jeff Driskel
Driskel was on the ‘24 roster on a $1.15m one-year contract. He’s essentially an [insert name here] quarterback, so, whether it’s Driskel or someone else makes no real difference to me. I assume that, after a year with the team, he has the advantage of knowing the system. If the 32-yr-old wants to extend his career for another year as the #3 option, that seems fine at the price.
So far, there’s no sign that the team is interested in extending Driskel. At this piont, I guess they’ll ride with Sam Hartman and sign an undrafted rookie to get a 4th QB as a “camp arm”.
No. 27 WR KJ Osborn
Osborn was a late-season signing last year, and he moved onto the team roster with hardly a ripple, appearing in just one regular season game for 19 offensive snaps and leaving nothing but zeros on the stat sheet. Osborn had three reasonably productive seasons in Minnesota from ‘21-’23, so I’m not sure what happened to derail his career last season. I assume the Commanders front office won’t be bringing him back, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him sign here or with another team for a vet-minimum deal.
So, I’m not shocked, but I’m a bit surprised that the team opted to run it back with Osborn, not because I don’t believe in him as a receiver (his career history with 3 productive years with the Vikings followed by a non-productive year with a new team reminds me of Zaccheaus last year), but because Kliff Kingsbury simply didn’t use him last year when the team was struggling for depth at the receiver position. The fact that they did bring him back makes me think that KJ Osborn could be the 2025 version of 2024 OZ — a guy no one expects to even make the team who steps up and delivers a 400-yard season as the 4th or 5th receiver on the depth chart. I’d feel better about him if he was a proven punt/KO returner, but his history as a return man with the Vikings is unimpressive.
No. 28 S Darrick Forrest
If you go back a couple of years, Forrest seemed to have a promising future as a special teams player and quality backup safety. Last year he seemed to be out-played by Percy Butler. I don’t see any reason to bring him back. He appears easily replaceable and may benefit from a fresh start with another team.
No surprise here. Forrest signed on a vet-minimum deal with Buffalo.
No. 29 RB Chris Rodriguez
I confess that I am not one of the many Chris Rodriguez fanboys on Hogs Haven. He’s okay, I guess, but I don’t think he’s any better than 100 other RBs in the NFL. Rodriguez is NOT an unrestricted free agent; he is an ERFA (Exclusive Rights Free Agent) which means that Washington can keep him under contract in ‘25 very cheaply and still control his rights in 2026 as a Restricted Free Agent. As a borderline practice squad running back, the Commanders should tender an offer and bring him back to camp in 2025. It’s effectively risk-free.
No surprises here. The Commanders tendered Rodriguez, which means he’ll be in training camp in July.
No. 30 RG Haggai Chisom Ndubuisi
Ndubuisi is part of the International Player Pathway program. The 25-year-old basically gets a free (17th) spot on the practice squad at little cost and — effective the ‘24 season — can be elevated to the active roster as many as 3 times per season, just like other practice squadders. This is just a little extra depth and another developmental player who costs almost nothing. Bring him back (or replace him with another IPP player).
There’s been no news on Ndubuisi so far, and there may never be. I do expect the team to have an IPP player on the practice squad this year. Maybe they’ll focus on having a guy at a different position where they expect to benefit from the ability to elevate him as many as three times during the season.