It’s 5 o’clock somewhere…
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I’m generally near the front of the line in offering push-back about the difference between playing a “first place” or a “fourth place” schedule. There simply isn’t a lot of difference between the schedules of the four teams in an NFL division.
I do, think, though, that the schedule for any given team can vary greatly in difficulty from one season to the next, and that those fluctuations are more prominent with the current 17-game season than they were when the season lasted for 16 games.
I think the 17-game schedule and the increasing number of international games in each NFL season is beginning to introduce some meaningful elements to the schedule discussion.
The Commanders played a 4th-place schedule in 2024; they will play a 2nd-place schedule in 2025. I’ll discuss what that means, but I think there are a number of other factors are likely to have much more impact on the increased difficulty of Washington’s schedule in the upcoming season.
Eight home games instead of nine
One inequity of the 17-game schedule is that half the teams in the NFL will play nine home games each season while the other half play only eight. The NFL partially resolved this dilemma by setting up a scheduling system where NFC teams all play at home 9 times in even years (2022, 2024, 2026) while AFC teams play 9 home games in odd years (2023, 2025, 2027).
In the season we just finished, Washington played at home 9 times, earning a 7-2 record (.777 win percentage). A little quick math tells us that the Commanders’ 5-3 record on the road (.625 win percentage) was good, but not nearly as good.
Playing one more road game/one less home game in 2025 will make it that much harder to repeat the 12-win season.
Tougher inter-divisional matchups
Each season, all four teams in the NFC East have to play all four teams from one NFC division and one AFC division.
In 2024, those two divisions were the NFC South and the AFC North.
In 2025, those two divisions will be the AFC West and the NFC North.
Last season, the NFC South had a combined W-L record of 28-40 (.412) while the AFC North had a combined record of 34-34 (.500). The two divisions had an overall combined record of 62-74 (.456).
Next season’s opponents had the following results in 2024:
- AFC West 40-28 (.588)
- NFC North 45-23 (.662)
- Combined 85-51 (.625)
No two divisions in the NFL had more total wins than the AFC West and the NFC North in the 2024 regular season. As discussed, the W-L records of individual teams vary quite a lot from season to season, but the difference between playing the NFCS/AFCN (.456 win %) in ‘24 and the AFCW/NFCN (.625 win %) in ‘25 seems pretty stark.
More travel
Last season’s non-divisional road games were:
- Tampa Bay (814 air miles)
- Cincinnati (411 miles)
- Arizona (1,977 miles from Washington DC)
- Baltimore (39 road miles)
- New Orleans (969 air miles)
Total distance traveled for non-divisional games: 4,210 miles
In 2024, no NFL team had fewer miles to travel than the Washington Commanders. The team further minimized the travel issues by going directly from Cincinnati to Arizona on a short week without returning to Washington DC.
Next season’s non-divisional road games will be:
- Green Bay (692 miles)
- Kansas City (949 miles)
- Los Angeles (2,294 miles)
- Minnesota (931 miles)
- Atlanta (542 miles)
- Miami (925 miles)
Total distance to travel for non-divisional games: 6,333 miles
In 2025, the Commanders will travel about 50% more miles for non-divisional road games than they did in 2024, and they will change time zones 4 times. The only time they had to deal with time zone changes for non-divisional games in 2024 was the combined 2-game road trip to Cincinnati and Phoenix.
International travel?
It has already been announced that Dophins will play a home game in Madrid in 2025. As one of the visiting teams on Miami’s schedule, it’s possible that the Commanders could be the opponent in that game. The chances of the NFL sending Washington to that game seem to be enhanced by the fact that Washington has not played an international game since the 27-27 tie vs the Bengals in the 2016 season and the appeal of the burgundy & gold with the NFL’s most popular young player in Jayden Daniels.
If Washington is designated as Miami’s opponent in Madrid, it would obviously multiply the travel challenges of the coming season.
2nd place schedule vs 4th place schedule
Washington had to play three opponents in 2024 that none of the other NFC East teams had to play:
- Arizona (8 wins in ‘24 – 3rd place NFCW)
- Carolina (5 wins in ‘24 – 3rd place NFCS)
- Tennessee (3 wins in ‘24 – 4th place AFCS)
The comparable 2025 opponents will be:
- Seattle (10 wins in ‘24)
- Atlanta (8 wins in ‘24)
- Miami (8 wins in ‘24)
We’ve already discussed the fact that teams don’t stay the same from year to year. You can see that, of the three 4th-place teams from the ‘23 season, two of them (Cardinals, Panthers) improved to 3rd place in ‘24.
Still, the 2024 opponents finished the ‘24 season with 16 wins (combined), while Washington’s 2025 opponents finished with 26 wins (combined) last season. This 10-game difference is pretty stark, and does indicate that the Commanders are likely to face a somewhat stiffer test in these three “2nd place schedule” games in ‘25 than they faced against last season’s “4th place schedule” opponents.
Summary
If you start to argue that Washington’s 2nd place schedule will definitely be easier than Philly’s 1st place schedule or harder than the Dallas 3rd place schedule, then I would argue that the 3 games that are different simply don’t make that a certainty due to year-to-year changes and the vagaries of timing within an NFL season (teams often play much better or worse in December than in September). In short, I don’t think a 2nd place schedule is necessarily harder than a 4th place schedule (of course, the Cowboys, Giants and Commanders will all face the distinct “honor” of playing the super bowl champions twice each next season).
However, I do think that there may be a real difference in the challenges and difficulty of the Commanders’ 2025 schedule compared to their ‘24 slate of games. I would (and do) argue that if you compare Washington’s 2025 schedule to its 2024 schedule, then, when you factor in fewer home games, tougher inter-divisional matchups for the NFC East, more travel across more time zones, a seemingly more challenging set of 3 unique opponents, and the possibility of playing an international game, it seems clear to me that the Commanders will have a bigger hill to climb in 2025 than they had in 2024.
The likelihood also seems to exist that, based on the team’s 2024 success and popularity of Jayden Daniels among NFL fans, Washington may play a number of prime-time and late-window games (especially since they play the AFC West). While this doesn’t necessarily mean a harder schedule, it is likely to challenge the coaches and players in their efforts to use a consistent process from week to week, which has clearly been a primary goal of Dan Quinn.
The Commanders will enter 2025 with much higher expectations than they faced in 2024, and with a much more challenging schedule complicating the team’s ability to achieve those loftier objectives.