We’re in the playoffs!
It’s the Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs and the 12-5 Washington Commanders will be facing a 10-7 Bucs team on the road at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL on Sunday at 8:00 pm ET. The Bucs have had a bit of an up-and-down season, starting out with a 4-2 record before losing 4 straight games heading into their week 11 bye, then winning 4 straight games coming out of their bye. Unsurprisingly, their losing skid coincided with numerous injuries, while their winning streak corresponds to getting many of those players back from injury. Another factor in their winning streak has been relying on some talented rookies on their roster, notably explosive RB Bucky Irving and WR Jalen McMillan, the latter of whom has scored at least one TD in every game since week 14.
On offense, the Bucs are in their first year under OC Liam Coen: a QB guru, Sean McVay disciple, and former OC of the Rams and University of Kentucky. Coen has brought a West Coast offense to the Bucs, featuring lots of 3-WR sets, short passes, and screens to spread the defense out horizontally. This offense pairs well with QB Baker Mayfield, who doesn’t have the strongest arm, but is excellent at reading the field and getting the ball out quickly. The result has been an explosive offense, with the 3rd-most passing yards and 4th-most rushing yards in the league.
On defense, the Bucs are led by head coach and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, who was promoted from DC to HC after Bruce Arians retired in 2021 and has elected to continue coordinating the defense himself. Bowles runs an aggressive 3-4 defense with the 3rd-highest blitz rate and 6th-most sacks in the league. The Bucs defense has been one of the best run-stopping defenses in the NFL for years and is currently allowing the 4th-fewest rushing yards in the league. However, their secondary has been more porous, allowing the 3rd-most passing yards in the league.
I asked Evan Wanish of Bucs Nation five questions to better understand the state of the Bucs and what to look for in this game.
1) What do you think about Liam Coen as an offensive coordinator, his strengths and weaknesses, and how is his offense different from the one Canales ran last year?
Hiring Liam Coen may very well go down as Tampa Bay’s best move of the entire 2024 offseason. Dave Canales was good for the Bucs and they definitely didn’t want to lose him, but I think they actually found an upgrade in Coen. With the help of player execution, he’s taken this offense to a whole new level and has fixed Tampa Bay’s run game, something they haven’t been able to do in years.
I think one of his strengths is his unpredictability as a play caller. He will try to zig when others think he will zag. It leaves defenses guessing as to what’s coming next. Combine that with the talent Tampa has on that side of the ball and you get an explosive offense like the Bucs have had this season.
As for a weakness, I’d say sometimes he tries to get too cute and outsmart the opponent a bit too much. For example, the Bucs played the Cowboys and the Saints in the last few weeks and both teams have poor run defenses, but the Bucs elected to pass the ball an awful lot. Of their first 11 plays on offense last Sunday against New Orleans, only 2 of them were runs against the 31st ranked run defense in the league. That is something he will need to fix especially in this matchup.
2) What has enabled Baker Mayfield to have so much more success with the Bucs than on his previous teams? How much confidence do you have in him as the QB of the future?
I think the supporting cast around Baker Mayfield has really helped, but I also think it’s been a classic change of scenery scenario for a guy that clearly needed it. It was a hectic couple of years for him going from Cleveland to Carolina to Los Angeles and I think he’s finally comfortable and found a home here in Tampa.
My confidence in him as the QB of this team in the future has certainly risen this season. He’s shown that he can play at an elite level at times, even if there are inconsistencies with it.
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3) What are the most surprising things you’ve learned about this Bucs team over the course of the season?
Just how good their run game has become. This was a Tampa Bay offense that was dead last in rushing the last two seasons prior to this one. Now they are one of the best running teams in the league. I assumed the run game would improve, but certainly not to this extent. It’s now become a strength for this team and something they should continue to do, which is a sentence I never would’ve imagined me saying a year ago at this time.
4) Who is one Bucs player on offense and one player on defense that Washington fans probably don’t know much about, but should?
Tight end Cade Otton is on track to come back in this matchup after missing the last few games with injury and he helps in both the passing and run game. They’ve missed his presence and Baker Mayfield likes to target him so he’s someone to keep an eye on.
On the defensive side of the ball, you don’t hear enough about the season Calijah Kancey had. He was the team leader in sacks this year with 7.5 all while missing five games. Kancey has the potential to become a household name next season.
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5) How should Washington go about gameplanning this matchup on both sides of the ball?
If you’re Washington on the offensive side of the ball you have to get the ball out of Daniels’ hands quickly and work the middle of the field with receivers and tight ends. Also do some designed QB runs, as Tampa has struggled against them in the past. As long as the pass protection can hold up and not allow Todd Bowles’ blitzes to get home, Washington should be able to move the football.
On defense, try to eliminate Mike Evans from the game and force Tampa to look elsewhere for production through the air. Also don’t let Bucky Irving single handily beat you. He may get his, but slowing down this Bucs rushing attack and forcing Mayfield to throw the ball 30+ times is going to be a major key in this game.
A companion article to this with my answers to Evan’s questions can be found here.
Thanks again to Evan Wanish for taking time out of his day to answer our questions about the Bucs.