Exactly six years ago today, October 8th, 2018, I published one of my first FanPosts at Hogs Haven, “Why We Should Go For It More on 4th Down.” Among statistically-minded followers of football, that had been the growing suggestion for years, but it was still a novelty both among most NFL coaches and fans who had grown up with a more conservative approach to the game, steeped in decades of conventional wisdom.
For a brief moment, there was hope that when Ron Rivera was hired here, things might change. For all the discussion about “Riverboat Ron” taking chances on unconventional decisions, it became clear after a year or two in DC that the appellation was intended ironically, something which was actually clear by the time he left Carolina.
Rivera takes a field goal at the 13-yard line down 26-0 in the 4th. “More like Paddleboat Ron” — @ChrisWesseling
— Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal) November 17, 2019
In Washington, Ron’s sheepish 4th down behavior was best demonstrated in a December 2022 loss to the Giants, where Rivera commanded two of the most cowardly punts in the NFL since 1999, at one point punting from the Giants’ 34-yard line.
But those days are in our rearview mirror, and there’s a new captain steering the ship.
Over the past 10 or 15 years, the integration of “big data” into the professional sports arena has exploded. Baseball has been dominated by the number crunchers for decades, but football has been slower to explore – and adopt – a data analytics based approach.
Based on the first five games of the 2024 season, it appears Dan Quinn, perhaps abetted by Kliff Kingsbury, is serious about using data to drive his in-game management, particularly as it pertains to 4th down decision making.
The Commanders are now 8-for-8 on 4th down this season after Jayden Daniels’ 34-yard run on 4th-and-3.
— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) October 6, 2024
Our Washington Commanders (sample size caveat) pic.twitter.com/0owpRN1QRJ
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 8, 2024
Ben Baldwin, a writer for The Athletic, has created an automated app – which posts its suggestions/evaluations on X (formerly Twitter) – of each 4th down decision NFL teams are faced with. Several examples are below.
—> WAS (0) @ CIN (7) <—
WAS has 4th & 2 at the CIN 32, Q1 07:38Recommendation : Toss-up (+0.3 WP)
Actual play: (Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short right to L.McCaffrey pushed ob at CIN 2 for 30 yards (G.Stone). pic.twitter.com/qQrrQ7i0eF— 4th down decision bot (@ben_bot_baldwin) September 24, 2024
—> WAS (28) @ CIN (20) <—
WAS has 4th & 1 at the CIN 33, Q4 13:35Recommendation (STRONG): Go for it (+5 WP)
Actual play: (Shotgun) J.Daniels right tackle to CIN 29 for 4 yards (D.Hill). pic.twitter.com/bXmklH5TJG— 4th down decision bot (@ben_bot_baldwin) September 24, 2024
—> WAS (28) @ CIN (20) <—
WAS has 4th & 5 at the CIN 24, Q4 11:30Recommendation : Toss-up (+0.4 WP)
Actual play: A.Seibert 42 yard field goal is GOOD, https://t.co/oi3psClhgB, Holder-T.Way. pic.twitter.com/9vIQncIua8— 4th down decision bot (@ben_bot_baldwin) September 24, 2024
—> WAS (31) @ CIN (26) <—
WAS has 4th & 4 at the CIN 39, Q4 04:25Recommendation (MEDIUM): Go for it (+1.7 WP)
Actual play: (Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short middle to Z.Ertz to CIN 30 for 9 yards (V.Bell). pic.twitter.com/sYlplzy0qL— 4th down decision bot (@ben_bot_baldwin) September 24, 2024
—> WAS (24) @ ARI (7) <—
WAS has 4th & 1 at the ARI 40, Q3 07:32Recommendation (STRONG): Go for it (+1.3 WP)
Actual play: (No Huddle) T.Scott reported in as eligible. J.McNichols up the middle to ARZ 25 for 15 yards (https://t.co/vM5D5kRWH7 pic.twitter.com/pBqtYrGYSx— 4th down decision bot (@ben_bot_baldwin) September 29, 2024
With the understanding that it’s still early in the season, Washington finds itself in an astonishing position. Not only has Quinn always gone for it when the “book” says he should this season, he’s gone for it in over a quarter of the “toss up” situations, where the odds are less clear, and those decisions have paid off in a big way.
2024 4th down landscape featuring the Washington Commanders
Look at McVay- big change from prior years!
(Pats/Vikings haven’t had an obvious go situation this year so they aren’t on here) pic.twitter.com/hVaaoEgnSn
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 8, 2024
Part of the team’s success is undoubtedly having a multi-talented weapon like Jayden Daniels orchestrating the offense, easily able to scamper for a few yards if his options downfield are unavailable, but the amazing thing about Quinn’s approach is that it has a snowballing effect: The more 4th downs converted, and points put on the board, the easier it is to risk going for it again to pile on. In other words, aggressiveness begets aggressiveness and leads to situations where games can fairly quickly get out of hand as the offense pours on points.
I’m ecstatic that we finally have a coaching brain-trust willing not only to pay attention to the broadly available data for in-game decision making, but also to lean in the direction of trying to put up more points when the decision is more murky. Let’s hope it continues.