The Commanders get a rematch against Tampa Bay, who beat them in Week 1 as well as the 2020 playoffs, but who were also the last team to lose to Washington in a playoff game
I want to continue the series of game previews that we began a few weeks ago.
Since the start of the ‘24 season, I’ve published a game recap within five minutes of the end of each game. Each of the more recent of these recap articles has started with a “precap”, providing a bit of pre-game context. The rest of the recap article includes a detailed summary of each quarter, along with halftime and full-game team statistics and partial box scores.
Today, this “precap” is being published on Saturday, with the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarter summaries to be published as each quarter ends Sunday night, with the idea that anyone who is unable to watch or listen to the game live can at least read the quarterly summaries as they are posted to get a sense of how the game is going.
The full recap, with every section included, will be published as usual within minutes of the end of the game.
What follows here, then, is not really an ‘article’, and it likely doesn’t cover anything unfamiliar to you; it’s just the introduction to the full game recap, intended to establish the ‘context’ for the game before kickoff. It will be included in the published recap of today’s game.
A playoff game between Washington and Tampa Bay is nothing new. Washington’s most recent playoff appearance saw the Taylor Heinicke-led Washington Football Team host the wildcard Buccaneers at the end of the 2020 season in which Washington won the NFC East division title. Washington’s last playoff victory — at the end of the 2005 season — saw the 10-win NFC 2nd place and 6th-seeded Redskins beat the NFC South champion Bucs in Raymond James Stadium by a score of 17-0.
2024 Statistical Comparison
From the standpoint of team statistics, it is clear that this is a matchup of two of the league’s best offenses, with both teams putting up a lot of yards and a lot of points per game. The most notable difference is that the Bucs have the 3rd ranked passing offense at 250.4 yards per game, while Washington ranks 17th at 215.6 yards per game. Both teams average about 64.5 plays per game, so the Bucs have been a bit more efficient in accumulating yards, and have scored one more point per game on average.
The contrast is more apparent with respect to rushing and passing defense. The Commanders are in the bottom-3 teams in rush yards allowed, while the Buccaneers rank 4th. Conversely, Tampa Bay is 4th-worst in the league with respect to pass yards allowed per game, while Washington ranks 3rd overall.
This appears to be a good matchup of strong offenses opposing inconsistent defenses.
Defensively, Todd Bowles is known as an aggressive coach who will attack a quarterback with pressure. Pro Football Reference ranks the Buccaneers #2 in the NFL in blitz rate behind the Minnesota Vikings, and Tampa’s 44.7% Pressure Rate when sending five or more is 12th in the NFL.
However, some of TB’s simulated pressures — where they look like they’re blitzing only to drop someone — haven’t really been been completely successful this year. If they’re only sending four, the defensive pressure rate drops to 32.6%. The inconsistency in their sim pressures this year has led to a lot of problems in their passing game, problems that can be exploited by a QB who is a good processor or one with good mobility and elusiveness.
As we know, Jayden Daniels is both, and he led the NFL this season in number of scrambles (75) and rushing yards by a quarterback (891).
Probably the most noticeable change for the Commanders offense from early- to late-season is in the red zone attack.
- Washington gave the ball to the running backs in the red zone more than 8 times per game in 5 of the team’s first 9 games; in the eight games since, the running backs have gotten the ball more than six times in a game only twice.
- The ball went to TEs & WRs in the red zone only 26 times (total) in the first nine games. In the final eight games, the TEs and WRs got the ball 33 times — including 11 times in the final two games.
Washington has shifted from a running team to a passing team in “winning time moments”, with the exception of quarterback scrambles.
This transition may pay dividends against a Buccaneers defense that is rock-solid against running backs, but more vulnerable to passing attacks and mobile quarterbacks.
Health
Both teams appear to be about as close to full strength as any team is likely to be at the end of a 17-game season.
The key Tampa Bay player with injury news is safety Antoine Winfield, who has been out since suffering a knee sprain in Week 14. Winfield is expected to return for the Bucs on Sunday. Safety Jordan Whitehead remains unavailable after injuries sustained in a recent car crash.
Of course, Tampa Bay lost WR Chris Godwin, who played well against Washington, mid-season to a dislocated ankle, but rookie receiver Jalen McMillan has stepped up in his stead and has put up at least 50 yards and a touchdown in each of the past 5 games, with a total of 316 yards and 7 touchdowns from Weeks 14-18. He scored a touchdown on his first NFL reception, which came against the Commanders in Week 1.
Two players of key importance to Washington are center Tyler Biadasz and CB Marshon Lattimore. Biadasz missed two full games and parts of others with injuries this season. He was replaced by Michael Deiter, who appears to be unable to call protections or block — two key responsibilities of an NFL center. There were reports that Biadasz was “close” to being ready to play against Dallas. He should be on the field tomorrow night in Tampa.
Marshon Lattimore will also play on Sunday Night Football. He has played less than 2 full games in a Commanders uniform, but, as a member of the New Orleans Saints, he is well-acquainted with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and ‘old friends’ with WR Mike Evans. Over the years, the two have battled repeatedly and often viciously.
Per Mitch Tischler:
Mike Evans’ career numbers vs Marshon Lattimore:
Regular season
- 33 rec
- 564 yards
- 3 rec TDs
- 2.75 rec/game
- 47 yards/game
- 0.25 rec TDs game
(well below career averages)
Playoffs
- 1 rec, 3 yards
Also, Evans has been fined $100,000+ and suspended 1 game twice, Lattimore $10,500
It seems likely that, when Lattimore takes the field against Tampa, he will be matched up with Evans most of the night.
Week 1
Every Commanders fan will be aware that this season opened up with a road loss to these Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A lot has changed since then. On the TB side, one of the biggest positive developments has probably been the play of rookie running back Bucky Irving, who has three 100+ yard games in the past five in which he’s gotten at least 5 rushing attempts; he also ran for 89 yards last week against the Saints. Prior to Week 9, he had only one game with more than 70 rushing yards. Washington may struggle to contain him, and if they do, that could open up the passing game for Baker Mayfield, who doesn’t really need a lot of help.
Mayfield’s primary struggle this season has been turnovers. Baker has thrown 16 interceptions this year (2nd-most of his career), and he has been charged with a career high 13 fumbles. If Washington can pressure the Bucs’ QB, they may be able to force turnovers that could help win the game.
For the Commanders offensively, the major change from Week 1 is simply the development of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who has progressed exponentially in 18 weeks. Related to his development is the renaissance of Terry McLaurin in the offense. You’ll recall that Terry opened the season with 17 yards in Week 1 and 22 yards in Week 2. Despite that abysmal start, McLaurin finished the regular season with 1,096 receiving yards and a franchise-record 13 receiving touchdowns. The Washington offense that was held to 20 points by the Buccaneers in the season opener should look very different tonight.
Defensively, the big change has taken place at cornerback. Recall that, in Week 1, the starting corners were Benjamin St-Juste and Emmanuel Forbes. The latter was released mid-season and replaced by rookie Mikey Sainristil, who has followed a development trajectory that partly parallels that of teammate Jayden Daniels. St-Juste is still on the team, but his starting job has gone to Marshon Lattimore whenever the ex-Saint has been healthy, and St-Juste has been supplanted at least twice this season by Michael Davis, who is no great secondary player himself. It appears as though the Commanders will be in a position to start Lattimore and Sainristil, with Noah Igbinoghene playing the nickel slot position, allowing defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr to challenge the Bucs more significantly than he was able to in the first meeting in September.
In this ‘win or go home’ playoff game, it looks like we have two well-matched teams that feature highly productive offenses paired with inconsistent defenses. It should be an exciting Sunday Night Football game.