Survey results!!
It feels like everything is looking up for the Washington Commanders at the moment, and the team’s fans are filled with confidence.
This would seem to be driven by the incredible performance of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who has had one of the best starts to an NFL QB career — perhaps THE best start — ever. In his first four weeks, Daniels has had recognition of his individual achievements heaped upon him. He has won 3 Offensive Rookie of the Week awards, the Offensive Rookie of the Month award for September, has been named Offensive Player of the Week, FedEx Air Player of the Week, and Nickelodeon Valuable Player. Along the way, he has set numerous records for rookie quarterbacks (and quarterbacks in general) that have been widely reported over the past couple of weeks.
That individual success has led to team success. Washington’s only loss came in Week 1 on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — the only game so far in which Daniels looked like the rookie that he is, and in which the team’s kicker, now gone, had a disastrous performance.
At the moment, the Commanders are 3-1 overall, 1-0 in division games, and sit atop the NFC East.
A month ago, this would have seemed nearly to be the best-case scenario for the team. In a Reacts survey done on Hogs Haven prior to the opening game of the season, 83% of fans surveyed predicted either 2 or 3 wins for the team in the month of September, with only 4% of those surveyed believing that the team would go undefeated.
Having achieved a great start in the first four weeks of the Adam Peters/Dan Quinn/Jayden Daniels era, we turned the focus of the Reacts survey questions to the upcoming October games in this week’s survey. The results show that fans expect the early season success to continue.
Overall confidence
For the second week in a row, 98% of survey respondents said that they are confident in the direction of the team.
To be perfectly candid, I’m not sure what the other 2% are looking for that they haven’t yet seen, unless it has to do with longer-term issues like the stadium or team name, or they simply don’t like the people who fill the ownership, GM or coaching roles with the franchise.
In any event, fan confidence has been 92% or higher in 4 of the 5 surveys we have carried out so far this season.
Confidence in the rest of the NFC East
The fan confidence of the Cowboys and Eagles, each of whom spent the offseason anticipating a division championship with aspirations for an NFC Championship, hovers near 10%, while just under 40% of Giants fans, whose preseason expectations were limited, feel positively about the direction of their team.
Commanders fan expectations for October
With success comes rising expectations. When we asked Hogs Haven readers, this week, to predict the team’s record in its upcoming four games, the bullishness was apparent.
Nearly two-thirds of respondents believe the team will win 3 games, and 93% of respondents believe the team will be at least .500 over the next four weeks. The percentage of fans who believe in an undefeated 4-game stretch has risen from 4% in September to 6% now.
Of the games on the October slate, the one that fans appear to be most nervous about is the Week 6 ‘road trip’ to Baltimore. Despite their 2-2 record, the Ravens are perceived to be a talented and dangerous team, though most commenters seemed to feel that, if the Commanders are able to win at home this Sunday against the Cleveland Browns, then the game with the Ravens would be a very interesting matchup — especially considering the mobility of the Baltimore veteran QB (and reigning league MVP) Lamar Jackson and that of Washington’s rookie out of LSU, Jayden Daniels.
Following the games against the Browns and Ravens, the Commanders will be back home at Northwest Stadium for two more October matchups, against the Carolina Panthers (currently 1-3) and the Chicago Bears (currently 2-2). The game with the Bears, of course, will feature another intriguing QB pairing with the top two picks from April’s draft appearing on the same field.
Commanders fan expectations for the regular season
When asked to forecast the result of the ‘24 regular season for the Commanders, 89% predicted that the team will reach the playoffs, either as the NFC East champ (49%) or as a wildcard team (40%).
NFL fan expectations for this week’s home game against the Cleveland Browns
In addition to the surveys we run on the Hogs Haven site, Reacts surveys are also emailed on a weekly basis to registered participants, who answer football-related questions on a wide range of subjects. This week, those fans, representing all 32 fan bases, were asked to predict the outcomes of games versus their respective point spreads.
It appears that it’s not only Commanders fans who feel good about the team. 86% of fans surveyed nationally predict that Washington will not only win, but will cover the 3-point spread.
The contrasts with the expectations for the other two NFC East games being played this week (the Eagles are on a bye this week).
Nationally, 66% of NFL fans are predicting that the Steelers will win and cover the spread against the Cowboys, while 91% believe that the Seahawks will cover a 6.5-point spread while beating the Giants.
If the fan predictions are correct on all counts, it would mean that by Monday, Washington could have a 2-game lead on the Cowboys and a 1.5-game lead on the Eagles in the NFC East competition with a tough Week 6 game against the Ravens on tap.
While we didn’t ask Hogs Haven fans to predict the outcomes of any of these games in the Reacts survey, I can share with you the predictions of the participants in the Hogs Haven Week 5 Pick’em contest.
Predictions from HH Week 5 Pick’em contest
As you can see, the predictions of our own members mirror those of the broader NFL community, with 90% predicting that the favored Commanders cover the spread, while 79% and 76% believe the Seahawks and Steelers, respectively, will win and cover the spread.
It turns out that Browns fans agree
It this week’s Reacts poll at Dawgs by Nature, 75% of Browns fans who responded to the poll predicted a Washington win. Of the 25% who said that the Browns would win, just 3% predicted a “big” win for Cleveland.
Bottom line
Three decades of failure, dysfunction and embarrassment have conditioned Washington fans to brace for the worst and not to trust signs that better days are around the corner.
That conditioning is not erased by three weeks of success.
While it may take time and will certainly require continued winning for the franchise to earn back the trust of its fans, the month of September laid one solid building block in the foundation that is necessary for fans to fully embrace the idea that the corner has been turned and a new day has arrived for the burgundy & gold.
The next step will be to get in front of the home fans this Sunday at 1:00 p.m. and convincingly beat the Cleveland Browns.
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